The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Some users here really bend over backwards to try and play down the success of certain films. 
 

 

I predicted 105 OW. Let's say it does 85. Considering people are hailing it as the greatest movie of all time I would say meeting projections is fine. 85 in itself is good and it will plenty of money. Monetary success guaranteed.

 

Nothing to disparage the movie itself. Haven't seen it, hope it's good. Next week I will. It's like saying IT 2 did awesome, it didn't.

 

90+ beating most projections would be pretty very good. Others have mentioned 95 or higher, no denying that's great. To be clear 105 would be awesome.

Edited October 4, 2019 by cdsacken

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I predicted 105 OW. Let's say it does 85. Considering people are hailing it as the greatest movie of all time I would say meeting projections is fine. 85 in itself is good and it will plenty of money. Monetary success guaranteed.

 

Nothing to disparage the movie itself. Haven't seen it, hope it's good. Next week I will. It's like saying IT 2 did awesome, it didn't.

 

90+ beating most projections would be pretty very good. Others have mentioned 95 or higher, no denying that's great. To be clear 105 would be awesome.

Nope 85 would still be awesome for a movie of this budget. This is like saying TS4 is such a disappointment because it didn't do $200+ million yet how will it be viewed in a year's time? As a massive success.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Nope 85 would still be awesome for a movie of this budget. This is like saying TS4 is such a disappointment because it didn't do $200+ million yet how will it be viewed in a year's time? As a massive success.

Hard to really compare TS4 which had monstrous legs and did 1.058 billion world wide to this film. Monetarily I guess that makes sense but I'm not gonna get super excited if a film matches projections we've seen for months. Unless the projections are insane like 250 OW.

 

I will be watching it with a ton of interest long term. Hope it has great legs and does something great like 250+ domestic. 600 on this WW would be more impressive to me than 1.058B for TS4

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Hard to really compare TS4 which had monstrous legs and did 1.058 billion world wide to this film. Monetarily I guess that makes sense but I'm not gonna get super excited if a film matches projections we've seen for months. Unless the projections are insane like 250 OW.

 

I will be watching it with a ton of interest long term. Hope it has great legs and does something great like 250+ domestic. 600 on this WW would be more impressive to me than 1.058B for TS4

It will do 600 WW unless it falls off a cliff. OS is actually much stronger (relatively) than DOM from what I've seen.

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I will be watching it with a ton of interest long term. Hope it has great legs and does something great like 250+ domestic. 600 on this WW would be more impressive to me than 1.058B for TS4

That's probably happening. OS is looking pretty good and the movie has really good reception so it should have good legs. I'm gonna say O/U BvS OS-China numbers. With 200 mil DOM, 600 mil pretty much guranteed. 

Edited October 4, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

That's probably happening. OS is looking pretty good and the movie has really good reception so it should have good legs. I'm gonna say O/U Suicide Squad OS numbers.

Then it will be more impressive to me than TS4 was. I'm not gonna change my answer. 600+ ww was always my target. 

 

Especially with 250 domestic that is a buttload of net profit and a very good rate of return.

[Eric the Ape]

 

For those who care

[kitik]

Terminator tickets have been on sale for a few days around here.

 

Also, it might be too early to be certain, but one theater has showtimes listed for Arctic Dogs on Friday, but not on Thursday. Could just be an anomaly, but perhaps they decided that it would be silly to have previews on Halloween, and are just going with a classic Friday start.

[Porthos]

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

No two ways about it, both Sacramento and Denver massively underperformed.

 

(LS13 and Philly still over-performed, mind)

 

I might go back and look through my comps to see if anything would have predicted this, but I doubt it.  Or at least something that would have given me pause.

So I went back and checked, and nothing came within a million of Joker in either direction, even with a couple of tracks I made at 4pm.

 

These were the three closest:

105.12% of Ant-Man and the Wasp (12.09m)

20.43%   of Endgame                      (12.26m)

36.77%   of Infinity War                   (14.34m)

 

If I had the foresight to only comp EG and IW, I would have nailed it by picking that mid-point, but ain't no way I would have done that.  Not without 3D and slightly less PLF penetration locally.  Though I suppose the adult ticket sales helped counter-balance that.

 

If I restrict my comps to all of the CBMs I have and that's it I'm still off by a million (12.35m) and that's with a ludicrous Black Panther comp (15.05m).  But since I decided a while back to "retire" BP from my comps, due to too many new theaters in town, when I exclude that I get 11.9m which was just outside of my high end of 11.8 last night.

 

So, in the end, I am forced to conclude that I couldn't have called this based on Sacramento.  Guess locally we don't live in a society after all.

[cdsacken]

Regional differences are good though. Makes it hard to calculate and forecast but often films really are more popular in certain areas.

[Porthos]

56 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm wondering if Denver underperformance (I think that area had the biggest underperformance out of all the trackers) was due to fears of an attack happening. 2012 was only 7 years ago and it's probably still fresh in some people's minds. I have no clue about Sacremento though (my cousin who lives there did say that the movie was pretty hyped amongst his circles and his screening was full). 

Oh, I think Denver is pretty self-explanatory and doesn't need to be dwelt on too much (plus having one of the bigger theaters in town not carry it).

 

Sacramento is a little more complicated.  We had a mass shooting, but that was way back in the early 90s, so that didn't have anything to do with it at all.  Pretty much out of sight, out of mind for most Sacramentans, I think.

 

I do actually have some thoughts on why it under-performed in Sacramento (at least as of 4pm yesterday), but... I think I'll leave them as unsaid for the most part lest I start up that conversation. 

 

I'll just say that I think it was a combination of Sacramento's demographics AND not having enough of a population base to make up for folks who weren't all that interested in it that caused a possible under-performance.  At least in large cities like Philly, and LA/NY you have the sheer numbers to make up for things. 

 

I'd been noting decent urban/suburban spilt locally ever since it started selling tickets and the idea of this playing better in larger cities seems to track relatively well with the sale patterns here.  I haven't gone back and checked the final numbers to see if that held true at the end, but I do think the relative underperformance in some of the theaters in the suburbs might have been the largest contributing factor.

 

It also could be that there was more comparatively late night crowds (9pm+) than other local movies, though why that didn't track against other adult-leaning movies I couldn't say.

 

No, in the end, I think it just under-performed locally, at least relative to other recent movies, and trying to figure out why is a case of the blind men and the elephant.

 

Just one of those things, really.

Edited October 4, 2019 by Porthos

[reddevil19]

I still have no idea how this is gonna play beyond today with audiences. I'm not really sure how I feel myself. I'd probably give it like a 7 out of 10. I just can't believe they put THAT scene in towards the end. I'm very conflicted. 

[keysersoze123]

Running script for all 5713 shows for AMC runs for ever. So data is outdated by the time it ends!!! So for day 2 I am breaking down dolby, prime and imax and will do best effort on the rest. Still overall numbers. I feel this should ramp to double this number by tonight(hopefully). That should be close to 6M in BO for under 400 theaters. I am curious how that translates to overall OD BO. Could be that is 20% or more of overall BO.

 

 

Joker OD (5713 shows)

225709/1078759

[cax16]

Waking up from surgery to see that preview number was nice, whatever it does this weekend it’s a good opening either way. 

 

This was fun movie to track and now that  I have some actual comps to use it will be more helpful in the future.

[cdsacken]

Hope the surgery went well.

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Waking up from surgery to see that preview number was nice, whatever it does this weekend it’s a good opening either way. 

 

This was fun movie to track and now that  I have some actual comps to use it will be more helpful in the future.

Take care man. Health more important than BO trackin.

[Rthmessiah]

On 10/3/2019 at 7:46 AM, Tinalera said:

Joker thursday oct 3 Toronto Ontario Canada (taken oct 2)

 

Yonge Dundas

 

VIP
400 17/60
500 19/77
700 47/60
800 58/77
1000 43/60 
1040 22/77

AVX
430 8/386
730 126/386
1030 32/386
IMAX
400 64/356
700 194/356
1045 104/356

 

Scotia place

 

IMAX
430 100/416
730 279/416
1030 144/416

Regular
400 25/195
500 67/195
530 65/390
700 80/195
800 104/391
830 50/390
900 32/140
1000 97/558
1040 24/318

 

Yonge eglington

 

VIP
600 37/70
700 81/95
900 51/70
1000 42/70
AVX
430 8/379
730 105/379
1030 16/379

 

Eglington town

 

IMAX
400 11/335
700 68/335
1030 19/335

Regular
430 8/305
730 37/305
1030 3/305

 

Don Mills
VIP
500 15/115
730 50/115
830 75/115
1030 49/115

 

Yorkdale
AVX
400 28/382
700 96/382
1000 47/382

Regular
430 9/451
530 3/200
730 31/ 451
830 25/200
1030 23/451

 

Queensway
VIP
400 10/136
445 5/124
600 50/109
700 94/136
800 96/124
915  60/136

AVX
400 4/417
700 151417
1000 81/417

Reg 
400 11/247
700 59/247
1000 19/247

 

3,372/16465

 

Just over 20 percent sales mark

Here is wednesday count. Seems to be selling more. Reviews having some effect. A couple of smaller vips close to sellout but other than that im personally getting a wom/wait and see vibe right now. 

 

 

Edit this was wednesdays count not sunday as i error posted

Shame they are looking to demolish the Scotiabank Toronto replace with two 40 story apartment complex

[cdsacken]

Holy crap that's a big apartment!

[Eric the Ape]

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	124	8,464	1.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.159x of It: Chapter Two 14 days before release (1.68M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.051x of Lion King 14 days before release (1.18M)

0.613x of Hobbs & Shaw 14 days before release (3.56M)

[Eric the Ape]

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	30	25	8,099	0.31%

 

Comp

0.050x of It: Chapter Two 27 days before release (528K)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.417x of Hobbs & Shaw 27 days before release (2.42M)

 

BOP's range has it at 35-45M. The 40M+ rule applies. I'm tracking it. Anyways, the movie clearly didn't rock the boat here, but that It2 comp is pretty lol, so don't take it super seriously. The Hobbs & Shaw one is a pretty solid one so far though. Both are action-heavy, male-targeted franchises with IMAX, 7PM previews, and no 3D. Though admittedly, while I have no idea how frontloaded the film will be, I'm confident that that 2.42M would not be very good for this movie. We'll see how the coming weeks do