The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Final run for NYC/NJ/few PA theaters previews. Excellent finish for sure. This is definitely going to be walk heavy. it sold over 12K tickets in just these theaters today.

 

 

AMC NYC/NJ/PA Area Previews (47 Theaters/820 shows)
 Total:42870/98412

 

Edit: bcos of sellouts the total seat count has gone down. But that is the limitation of this tracking. Still gives a perspective. If we add all sellouts it will probable be another 10-20% more.

 

Empire Final (3718 tickets sold). Awesome

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25
Imax:226/303(430PM),287/303(730PM),258/303(1030PM)Total 771/909
Dolby:192/225(400PM),211/225(700PM),200/225(1000PM)Total 603/675
Prime:147/180(500PM),166/180(800PM),142/180(1100PM)Total 455/540
2D:2/122(A10 410PM),87/377(A13 415PM),18/121(A15 420PM),25/99(A11 440PM),25/158(A6 450PM),35/146(A7 510PM),
2/145(A25 520PM),47/309(A14 530PM),24/144(A20 540PM),25/134(A5 550PM),8/309(A9 6PM),55/121(A21 610PM),
50/126(A3 620PM),56/262(A17 630PM),38/99(A16 640PM),47/142(A19 650PM),3/122(A10 710PM),152/377(A13 715PM),
69/121(A15 720PM),61/99(A11 740PM),85/158(A6 750PM),74/146(A7 810PM),64/145(A25 820PM),128/309(A14 830PM),
8/144(A20 840PM),76/134(A5 850PM),4/309(A9 9PM),48/121(A21 910PM),28/126(A3 920PM),79/262(A17 930PM),
29/99(A16 940PM),25/142(A19 950PM),3/122(A10 1010PM),74/377(A13 1015PM),34/121(A15 1020PM)
34/99(A11 1040PM),28/158(A6 1050PM),2/146(A7 1110PM),52/145(A25 1120PM),43/309(A14 1020PM)
10/144(A20 1140PM),112/134(A5 1150PM).  Total 1889/7383

Overall 3718/9127

 

Edit: Adding LA as well. Even stronger from % perspective. Its not final there as there are few shows still pending. But it wont be that far off. Again the total count has gone down a bit due to sellouts. but less than NY area.

 

AMC LA Area(522 shows)
 Total:40227/84943

 

DC(Not as strong as NY/LA but still good). Here seat count has not gone down from afternoon check and so no sellouts since then 🙂

AMC DC Area Previews (19 Theaters/182 shows)
 Total:9397/31355

 

Texas - Weaker than metros but good recovery today.

AMC Texas Previews (48 Theaters/504 shows)
 Total:21728/86837

 

Miami - Very good finish

AMC Miami Area(112 shows)
 Total:7115/18279

 

Orlando - Similar to Texas. It did double its tickets sold today.

AMC Orlando Area(78 shows)
 Total:4036/16218

 

SF - Huge walks for sure. Super strong like NY and LA areas.

Spoiler

 AMC San Francisco Total(9 Theaters):8254/19342

 

AMC Metreon 16
Dolby:     460
Imax:     826
2D:     659
Total Tickets sold:1945

AMC Bay Street SF
Imax:     402
Dolby:     501
2D:     390
Total Tickets Sold:1293

 

AMC Saratoga 14
Imax:     281
Dolby:     390
2D:     223
Total Tickets Sold:894

 

AMC Mercado 20
Dolby:     533
AMC Kabuki
2D:     567

AMC Newpark
Dolby:     413
Imax:     261
2d:     163
Total:837

AMC Brentwood
Dolby:     383
Imax:     237
2d:     288
Total:908

AMC Eastridge 15
Dolby:     367
Imax:     231
2d:      295
Total:893

AMC Manteca 16
Total:384

 

 

Edited October 4, 2019 by keysersoze123

[DAJK]

Alrighty sorry this is late but I'll add my two cents into everybody else's theatre trackings (also I LOVE how big individual theatre tracking is getting, makes for some pretty great analysis for Thursday #s).

 

101.5% Fantastic Beasts - $9.23M

350% Bohemian Rhapsody - $13.65M

89% Aquaman (total) - $12.2M

318% Glass - $11.77M

59.6% Captain Marvel - $12.3M

235% Shazam - $13.86M

161% Aladdin - $11.3M

166% King of the Monsters - $10.5M

212% Dark Phoenix - $10.6M

248% of IT2 - $26M

 

Alright, so it's safe to assume we can remove that IT2 comp as an outlier lol. Other than that, the mean of my other comps comes out to $11.7M. Take each comp for what you will, and yea there's obviously bias in my sampling in that I was inconsistent with tracking over the summer, so I don't have the same build-up of comps as some other trackers. As average of a wide array of movies (albeit, I tried to pick ones that would have some sort of pre-existing ''fan rush'') won't be the best way of assessing a new film's performance, but the fact that everything is rather consistent (standard deviation of 1.4M... so if you want to use statistical terms, if this distribution is normal, there's a 95% chance Joker's Thursday number will be between 8.9-14.5M)

 

I know that last part means nothing but I'm supposed to be doing my stats homework rn so I thought if I used some term related to stats I could justify my procrastination. 

[keysersoze123]

I updated single post with final numbers just for reference. its easy to refer back for future BB.

[Felandria]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Orlando - Similar to Texas. It did double its tickets sold today.

AMC Orlando Area(78 shows)
 Total:4036/16218

 

SF - Huge walks for sure. Super strong like NY and LA areas.

  Reveal hidden contents

 AMC San Francisco Total(9 Theaters):8254/19342

 

AMC Metreon 16
Dolby:     460
Imax:     826
2D:     659
Total Tickets sold:1945

AMC Bay Street SF
Imax:     402
Dolby:     501
2D:     390
Total Tickets Sold:1293

 

AMC Saratoga 14
Imax:     281
Dolby:     390
2D:     223
Total Tickets Sold:894

 

AMC Mercado 20
Dolby:     533
AMC Kabuki
2D:     567

AMC Newpark
Dolby:     413
Imax:     261
2d:     163
Total:837

AMC Brentwood
Dolby:     383
Imax:     237
2d:     288
Total:908

AMC Eastridge 15
Dolby:     367
Imax:     231
2d:      295
Total:893

AMC Manteca 16
Total:384

 

 

Okay, so Orlando IS underperforming, good, I’m not crazy.

 

i honestly saw what was going on here and thought it was another SoaP situation.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Joker Friday:

Theaters: 259 (+2)

Showings: 4890 (+52)

Tickets Sold: 81585 (+25812) (30% of TLK at the same point) (33% of TLK's pace at the same point)

Tickets Available: 745358 (+6616)

Estimated ATP: 11.59 (-0.22)

Estimated Total Sales: 945570 (+286615)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 8 million (+2.4 million)

 

Even if it plays like JW: FK, it would manage a True Friday of 24 million. I would say more like 20-22  million true Friday which is still good for an 80+ weekend. Could be as low as 18 million, but that would require Captain Marvel/Lion King levels of PS loading which I doubt simply because the presales are well below either of those films.

 

[cdsacken]

So maybe 80ish on the upper end, 70ish on lower. Meh just good

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

47 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

So maybe 80ish on the upper end, 70ish on lower. Meh just good

13.3M midnights.

 

90M is the floor me thinks with a shot at 100M.

 

And the budget is 55M even 70M OW would make WB happy.

[cdsacken]

20 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

13.3M midnights.

 

90M is the floor me thinks with a shot at 100M.

 

And the budget is 55M even 70M OW would make WB happy.

I predicted 105 but that was with 15.5 MD,  30 true Friday.

 

Still think low- mid 80s is peak. I guess 90 if it something crazy like 35 Saturday. Im hoping for 85+ now

Edited October 4, 2019 by cdsacken

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

25 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I predicted 105 but that was with 15.5 MD,  30 true Friday.

 

Still think low- mid 80s is peak. I guess 90 if it something crazy like 35 Saturday. Im hoping for 85+ now

Excuse me but I can’t see this falling that low at this point. October record is definitely going down...thing is by how much. Right now i’m sticking with my original prediction of 95M.

[a2k]

minimum imo

13.3 + 30 + 30 + 19 = 92.3 ow (43.3 od)

od ~3.25x previews and ow ~6.95x

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

minimum imo

13.3 + 30 + 30 + 19 = 92.3 ow (43.3 od)

od ~3.25x previews and ow ~6.95x

If OD is 30 (which is not likely), then the weekend should be more like 105.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

If OD is 30 (which is not likely), then the weekend should be more like 105.

OD is 43.3 in my calc, 3.25x the previews. IT2 did 37+ od after 10.5 previews which is 3.5x+ multi so felt 3.25x was fair for Joker. Flat Sat to account for CBM front-loading which may not happen but just being conservative.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

OD is 43.3 in my calc, 3.25x the previews. IT2 did 37+ od after 10.5 previews which is 3.5x+ multi so felt 3.25x was fair for Joker. Flat Sat to account for CBM front-loading which may not happen but just being conservative.

Well I meant pure OD of 30. But fair enough on being conservative. I still don't think it'll be quite that frontloaded to have zero Sat bump and such a steep Sunday drop though.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

So maybe 80ish on the upper end, 70ish on lower. Meh just good

Some users here really bend over backwards to try and play down the success of certain films. 
 

 

[keysersoze123]

Based on how previews went, the OD will go up. Walkins will be great for this. There are no shortage of shows either and peak hour I am expecting more to be added based on demand.

[The Chad DC]

On 10/1/2019 at 10:41 AM, The Chad DC said:

Scotiabank Theatre Vancouver:

AVX - Thursday is at 419/2139, 20%. Friday (443/1286), 34%.

 

Regular - Thursday (71/775), 9.2%, these showings were added really late. There is none still for Friday.

 

Cineplex Strawberry Hill:

 

AVX - Thursday (64/648), 10%. Friday (174/846), 21%.

 

Regular - Thursday (22/750), 3%. Again added late.

 

Cineplex Metropolis:

 

AVX - T (123/1103), 11%. F (198/1468), 13.4%.

Regular - T (66/1322), 5%.

 

Landmark New Westminster:

 

Regular - T (19/120, 55/92, 79/120, 57/90, 48/78, 30/73, 24/104, 21/120, 5/78= 335/875, 36%) F (15/104, 18/120, 19/92 ~ early showings, 38/120, 78/93, 103/120, 65/92, 87/120 = 464/861, 50%).

 

Some context on these numbers:

 

The first three theatres are owned by cineplex. These showings have majority of movie watchers (like 60%) book tickets on the day of the showing. Landmark usually has most people book early because they sell fast. For instance, Cineplex Strawberry hill has a Landmark nearby and that is sold at around 35%.

Joker tickets are hot, hot, hot!

 

Scotiabank Theatre Vancouver:

AVX - Friday (1048/2538), 41%.

 

Regular - Friday (422/1234), 34%. Added late.

 

Cineplex Strawberry Hill:

 

AVX - Friday (252/946), 27%.

 

Regular - Friday (262/830), 32%. Added late.

 

Cineplex Metropolis:

 

AVX - F (608/1638), 37%.

Regular - F (235/1114), 21%. Added late.

 

Landmark New Westminster:

 

Regular - F (64/102, 55/120, 66/92 ~ early showings, 90/120, 80/92, 92/102, 113/120, 80/86, 76/81, 75/86, 87/102, 103/120, 71/86 = 1052/1309, 80%!).

 

Some context on these numbers:

 

The first three theatres are owned by cineplex. These showings have majority of movie watchers (like 60%) book tickets on the day of the showing. Landmark usually has most people book early because they sell fast. For instance, Cineplex Strawberry hill has a Landmark nearby and that is sold at around 65%.

[Porthos]

No two ways about it, both Sacramento and Denver massively underperformed.

 

(LS13 and Philly still over-performed, mind)

 

I might go back and look through my comps to see if anything would have predicted this, but I doubt it.  Or at least something that would have given me pause.

 

In the end, I think it might just be a case of patchwork performance: Over-performing in some areas, under-performing in others, averaging out to the mid-point of the two (13 is in the middle of the 11 and 15 range, after all).  I just happened to be in one the under-performing markets.

 

At least the average 12.66 came far closer than any Deadline estimate did.  I'll take our collective result there against a 13.3 any day.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

At least the average 12.66 came far closer than any Deadline estimate did.  I'll take our collective result there against a 13.3 any day.

Oh yes, lolDeadline forever and ever. Amen.

 

(even the updated 10-12 range was way off lulz)

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

No two ways about it, both Sacramento and Denver massively underperformed.

I'm wondering if Denver underperformance (I think that area had the biggest underperformance out of all the trackers) was due to fears of an attack happening. 2012 was only 7 years ago and it's probably still fresh in some people's minds. I have no clue about Sacremento though (my cousin who lives there did say that the movie was pretty hyped amongst his circles and his screening was full). 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm wondering if Denver underperformance (I think that area had the biggest underperformance out of all the trackers) was due to fears of an attack happening. 2012 was only 7 years ago and it's probably still fresh in some people's minds. I have no clue about Sacremento though (my cousin who lives there did say that the movie was pretty hyped amongst his circles and his screening was full). 

I think it had huge overperformances in big coastal cities like LA, NYC, Philly for some reason. There seemed to be a common thread of it going absolutely gangbusters in theaters from those areas.