The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

Been thinking a while Addams would open to $30M OW.

[Eric Duncan]

Gemini Man Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	258	7,180	3.54%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 512

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

 

Comp

0.281x of Once Upon 2 days before release (1.63M)

1.654x of Angel Has Fallen 2 days before release (2.48M)

0.135x of It: Chapter Two 2 days before release (1.42M)

1.337x of Ad Astra 2 days before release (2M)

1.612x of Rambo 2 days before release (2.1M)

0.101x of Joker 2 days before release (1.34M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.311x of Hobbs & Shaw 2 days before release (1.8M)

 

If those drops and jump seem bad, there's a reason for that. One of the theaters not only dropped a showing, but a showing that had a decent amount of people already buying tickets, for reasons I genuinely do not understand. So that caused the tickets sold to deflate by a lot. So I guess it's better to take this stuff with a grain of salt, but..those numbers aren't as impressive as they were yesterday.

[Eric Duncan]

Jexi Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	15	14	1,747	0.80%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 8

Total Seats Added Today: 604

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

0.187x of Stuber 2 days before release (140K)

 

lol

[DAJK]

Gimme that Addams Family comps @Eric Addams

[Eric Duncan]

The Addams Family Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	174	6,287	2.77%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 9

Total Seats Added Today: 538

Total Seats Sold Today: 79

 

Comp

1.673x of Dora 2 days before release (2.09M)

2.900x of Abominable 2 days before release (1.88M)

 

So yes, the T-Mobile deal probably played a big part in this massive jump. And I definitely don't see those numbers happening (Goosebumps 2's IM would give us a range of 39.6M-44M, which...yeah, no. And yes, you can quote me if this does hit 40M for some inexplicable reason). But still...79 tickets is 79 tickets. And I guess it shows out of all the movies that could break out this weekend, this seems like the one.

[Eric Duncan]

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	144	8,464	1.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.155x of It: Chapter Two 9 days before release (1.62M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.046x of Lion King 9 days before release (1.05M)

0.540x of Hobbs & Shaw 9 days before release (3.13M)

 

Good thing is that this is a step up from the previous pattern. There was usually a drop back to 2 or 3 tickets, but now this is exactly like Monday's results. Bad thing is...well, I know that I don't have the best comps in the world, but if this is supposed to be a 40M+ opener, I feel like it should be better? I guess I'll have to wait until next week to really gauge things.

[Eric Duncan]

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	34	59	8,517	0.69%

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp

0.108x of It: Chapter Two 23 days before release (1.14M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.607x of Hobbs & Shaw 23 days before release (3.52M)

 

This caught me by surprise. I honestly thought this was gonna do something like 2 or 3 tickets today. But 10 is pretty solid this far out, though we'll see whether that means anything for the next couple days. Also this was the day the 3D shows for Hobbs & Shaw went away, hence the big boost for that film comp-wise.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mal2 (T-10) - 747 shows

9253/153080 (+289)

 

it slowed down further but that is to be expected. I guess its going to be a slow burner until the release week.

Mal2 (T-9)

AMC(747 shows) - 9712/154743(+459)
Cinemark(1056 shows) - 3986/142837

 

I am able to retrieve Cinemark data as well. More shows but smaller screens overall. AMC has shown good bump compared to past 2 days.

I have not tracked cinemark previously and so comparable data. AMC finished for joker at 137632/484905. So we have ways to go to project final number for Mal 2.

[keysersoze123]

On 2/5/2019 at 5:17 PM, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Thinking/Praying LEGO 2 and What Men Want breaksout, the former at $60M OW, the latter at $30M OW.

 

3 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Been thinking a while Addams would open to $30M OW.

Is this similar to what you were thinking for Lego 2

[FlashMaster659]

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	% Sold
TOTALS	0	63	661	16051	15390	4.12%

[Krissykins]

42 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	% Sold
TOTALS	0	63	661	16051	15390	4.12%

Is this on track to beat the first film? ($69.4m - unadjusted) 

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Is this on track to beat the first film? ($69.4m - unadjusted) 

It would be a major shock at the moment, given how pre-sales are.  Now the first did only do 4.2m on its Thur.  But previews in 2014 and previews in 2019 are pretty radically different beasts. And as far as I know, nothing we are tracking is pointing to 4m previews.

 

So, no.  Not particularly.  The trades have it at 50m, IIRC.  Box Office Pro has it at 40m to 50m.  We'll see where it lands as we get closer, but at the moment nothing screams breakout.  Whether or not this is the type of film that doesn't sell until closer to release, even when compared to other family films remains to be seen.

[Porthos]

On 9/30/2019 at 11:36 AM, Porthos said:

Alright, did a quick check around Sacramento, and it now stands at 231 tickets sold, which is 32 tickets more than Thr morning.  That's eight tickets a day.  Not exactly great, though it is in the dead-ish zone for this kind of film.

 

Right now (t-18 using this morning's count as last night's numbers as I reckon it's hardly done any sales this morning) it stands at:

 

56.76% of Pika Pika (3.24m)

38.18% of Aladdin (2.67m)

 

31.05% of It 2 (3.26m)

 

And a lol comp of 114.36% of H&S (6.63m)

 

That sounds much more in line with what is going down on in Philly.

 

Not that I expect this to be the type of film to be pre-sale heavy, even if it is strong in the female demographic.  Just have to see if it picks up or not.

Just did another twirl.  At T-9 Maleficent 2 has sold 377 tickets region wide (+146 in nine days of sales)

 

51.29% of Pika PIka (2.92m) [-0.32m from last check]

36.85% of Aladdin   (2.57m) [-0.10m from last check]

28.91% of It 2         (3.04m)  [-0.22m from last check]

 

And continuing the lolcheck:

 

107.10% of H&S     (6.21m) [-0.42m from last check]

 

Kiiiinda thinking 3m may be in the cards? I really don't track low openers though, so your guess as good as mine, if not better.  FWIW, TS4 comps to 2.42m and TLK to 2.57m.  So, range of 2.5m to 3m at the moment?  That seems to be what Sacramento is pointing to.  But, again, I don't track low openers, so the pattern could be wildly off.

Edited October 9, 2019 by Porthos

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

It would be a major shock at the moment, given how pre-sales are.  Now the first did only do 4.2m on its Thur.  But previews in 2014 and previews in 2019 are pretty radically different beasts. And as far as I know, nothing we are tracking is pointing to 4m previews.

 

So, no.  Not particularly.  The trades have it at 50m, IIRC.  Box Office Pro has it at 40m to 50m.  We'll see where it lands as we get closer, but at the moment nothing screams breakout.  Whether or not this is the type of film that doesn't sell until closer to release, even when compared to other family films remains to be seen.

Thanks, that would be quite the drop despite inflation. But the trailers are very poor. 

[filmlover]

The Wrap:  https://www.thewrap.com/gemini-man-addams-family-unlikely-to-upset-joker-at-the-box-office/

 

Low $20M for both Gemini and Addams.

 

 

[TMP]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Wrap:  https://www.thewrap.com/gemini-man-addams-family-unlikely-to-upset-joker-at-the-box-office/

 

Low $20M for both Gemini and Addams.

 

 

That early Gemini Man embargo was a duuuuuuumb idea from Paramount. Kind of took the steam out of it two weeks before launch.

[keysersoze123]

Looked at Addams family previews and OD at AMC and data is not pretty.

 

Previews - 6393/155228 (1169 shows)
OD -13523/372510 (2557 shows)

 

While I am new to this but it looks like < 1m previews and definitely not 30m OW but more like 20m OW optimistically. I could however be wrong. I will add Cinemark previews shortly. I doubt they will change my thoughts a lot.

 

of course this could be a walk ups monster and so I will update tomorrow night to see how did walk ups go for this tomorrow.

Edited October 9, 2019 by keysersoze123

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Looked at Addams family previews and OD at AMC and data is not pretty.

 

Previews - 6393/155228 (1169 shows)
OD -13523/372510 (2557 shows)

 

While I am new to this but it looks like < 1m previews and definitely not 30m OW but more like 20m OW optimistically. I could however be wrong. I will add Cinemark previews shortly. I doubt they will change my thoughts a lot.

 

of course this could be a walk ups monster and so I will update tomorrow night to see how did walk ups go for this tomorrow.

Do you have any animation comparisons?

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Do you have any animation comparisons?

As I said I am doing this since last Thursday. But once I have cinemark data, you should be able to look at anything Menor had for Abominable(if he had posted any).

That said I projected where this will end up and with no PLF/Imax and lots of children tickets, I see sub $200K  from AMC. Since this is national, I assume similar % share for this MTC. That is how I made my prediction.

As I said YMMV. So you are free to ignore this prediction. I had looked into this after thinking Tmobile promotion could have boosted its PS but may be that is for sat/sunday as this is family movie.

[narniadis]

Yeah animation is the epiphany of walk ups, barring something with considerable adult draw and or franchise.