The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[titanic2187]

Judging from SK's 1st 2 days number, if that correlate, I think 11.5m would be the target for Joker's preview.  

[DAJK]

Apologies that I will not be getting my comps out sooner tonight (as any other Thursday) @captainwondyful. As probably everyone already knows I'm on the west coast, so my numbers come in later than everyone else's, but I also have a night class from 6:30-9:30PM on Thursdays. Sometimes there's a 10 minute break in the middle where I check updates, but otherwise I don't usually get to numbers until water class. 

 

Quick look as of right now suggests that FB2 is the number to beat at my theatre, or Aquaman. Somewhere around those levels. But it's still really early in the evening here so who knows. I'll be back in about 4 hours with more solid comps

[Cap]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Apologies that I will not be getting my comps out sooner tonight (as any other Thursday) @captainwondyful. 

It's all cool.  I always do my Thursdays "live" so I never have my numbers until like midnight EST

[Ryan Reynolds]

Joker 92% on RT, may be good for wom, but way too early to say

Edited October 4, 2019 by Ryan Reynolds

[hasanahmad]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Joker 92% on RT, may be good for wom, but way too early to say

92 on RT by users

4.0/5.0 on letterboxd

9.4 on IMDB

8.2 on metacritic users 

[MrGlass2]

12 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

92 on RT by users

4.0/5.0 on letterboxd

9.4 on IMDB

8.2 on metacritic users 

IMDb is useless at this point tbh, most voted before (WW) release.

 

Or IMDB needs to trust their users and put Joker #1 in their all-time Best list.

 

https://www.imdb.com/chart/top?ref_=nv_mv_250

 

[RealLyre]

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

IMDb is useless at this point tbh, most voted before (WW) release.

 

Or IMDB needs to trust their users and put Joker #1 in their all-time Best list.

 

https://www.imdb.com/chart/top?ref_=nv_mv_250

 

IMDB uses an algorithm for their top 250 that gives regular users votes more value than overall to combat brigades. Joker is 8.7/10 on the 250 list so far.

[JB33]

28 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

92 on RT by users

4.0/5.0 on letterboxd

9.4 on IMDB

8.2 on metacritic users 

This is exactly why I don't give a shit about critic reviews. I care about what my peers in the audience think, not people who get paid to attract clicks and drum up controversy.

[TalismanRing]

17 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

IMDB uses an algorithm for their top 250 that gives regular users votes more value than overall to combat brigades. Joker is 8.7/10 on the 250 list so far.

The thing is many of those regular repeat users are the ones that brigade - that's how they drove down higher rated films so that newer fanboy favorites would rank higher.

 

Also by giving regular users more weight the younger male demo that already votes disproportionately gets more weight to their ratings.  So that even heavily women audience skewing films have 1) more male ratings  than female 2) even vote for vote their ratings are given more weight to the overall rating.

 

Joker already had at least 15-20k ratings - the last I looked a week or so ago.  Rating was opened after TIFF.

 

Edited October 4, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Barnack]

19 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The thing is many of those regular repeat users are the ones that brigade - that's how they drove down higher rated films so that newer fanboy favorites would rank higher.

 

Also by giving regular users more weight the younger male demo that already votes disproportionately gets more weight to their ratings. 

 

That would be likely to happen if it would work like that, I think the IMDB algorithm is kept secret for a reason (make it harder to play for up and downvoter), I would imagine that it is not about just being a regular voter, but one that do not vote a lot of movies 10 and a lot of movies 1 and that type of logic to weight them.

Edited October 4, 2019 by Barnack

[Cap]

Joker

Thursday - Final Numbers

 

Joker
Theater	Today		9/23	9/25	9/27	9/30	10/2	10/3	Total	%		Shows
SM Cinemagic	272		14	35	44	63	147	419	2290	18.30%		16
Lincoln Square 13	586		1082	1312	1432	1727	2053	2639	5819	45.35%		17

 

I'm so proud of Cinemagic.  Look at those Walk Ups.

 

v Finale Sales Comps
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Joker	419	--	--
Endgame	2113	19.83%	11.90M
The Lion King	561	74.68%	17.18M
It: Chapter 2	428	97.89%	10.28M
OUATIH	237	176.93%	10.25M
Godzilla	201	208.46%	13.13M
Lincoln Square 13
Joker	2639	--	--
Endgame	5259	50.18%	30.11M
The Lion King	2483	106.28%	24.45M
Dark Phoenix	1383	190.82%	9.54M
OUATIH	1232	214.20%	12.42M
It: Chapter 2	1174	224.78%	23.60M
Godzilla	1102	239.47%	15.09M

 

Cinemagic

 

I'm not including TLK in my averages -- because I don't think it's a good comps for film to film -- but I included it to show just how well the Joker's sold at SMCM.  Averages out of 11.39M

 

Lincoln Square

 

We're all over the place, as we have been throughout tracking.  Again, I'm not including AEG and TLK in averages.  I mostly want to show Joker's ridiculously huge final number in comparison to everything else.  The other four averages out to 15.16M.

 

To echo Eric!,

6 hours ago, Eric! said:

... so 15M seems like the probable answer...but everyone else's comps are pointing to somewhere around 11M, so I do think Philly is overperforming this time around, so don't take my numbers too seriously.

 

But watch me being right and this ends up making 15M tonight 🙄

 

[Eric the IF]

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	120	8,464	1.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.161x of It: Chapter Two 14 days before release (1.69M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.052x of Lion King 14 days before release (1.19M)

0.661x of Hobbs & Shaw 14 days before release (3.83M)

 

It's good to have something you can look at for 20 minutes and do comps for in 10 minutes again.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

CINEPLEX SCOTIABANK MONTREAL 

 

JOKER - THURSDAY OCT 3 2019 (FINAL)

 

IMAX

4:30pm - 155/343 (+63)

7:30pm - 296/343 (+57)

10:30pm - 267/343 (+116)

Regular

5:00pm - 134/318 (+97)

8:00pm - 305/318 (+119)

11:00pm - 185/318 (+149)

70MM

4:00pm - 97/314 (+59)

7:00pm - 236/314 (+66)

10:00pm - 234/314 (+118)

 

Comps

 

6.2 x Ad Astra = 9.3m

3.3 x Dark Phoenix = 16.5m

 

Overall insane performance. These are the only comps I have which gave realistic numbers. The other comps were going into the 20m range. Based on deadline's early figure that doesn't seem likely. But I am hoping for something closer to 13-15m. 

 

Edit: Also out of likes so thanks to everyone tracking entire cities. Gets crazy for big releases. 

Edited October 4, 2019 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[Old Spice]

4 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

CINEPLEX SCOTIABANK MONTREAL 

 

JOKER - THURSDAY OCT 3 2019 (FINAL)

 

IMAX

4:30pm - 155/343 (+63)

7:30pm - 296/343 (+57)

10:30pm - 267/343 (+116)

Regular

5:00pm - 134/318 (+97)

8:00pm - 305/318 (+119)

11:00pm - 185/318 (+149)

70MM

4:00pm - 97/314 (+59)

7:00pm - 236/314 (+66)

10:00pm - 234/314 (+118)

 

Comps

 

6.2 x Ad Astra = 9.3m

3.3 x Dark Phoenix = 16.5m

 

Overall insane performance. These are the only comps I have which gave realistic numbers. The other comps were going into the 20m range. Based on deadline's early figure that doesn't seem likely. But I am hoping for something closer to 13-15m. 

 

Edit: Also out of likes so thanks to everyone tracking entire cities. Gets crazy for big releases. 

I'm out of likes too. But ditto.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Edit: Also out of likes so thanks to everyone tracking entire cities. Gets crazy for big releases. 

Here I am trying to get PS for 5701 shows for tomorrow.

 

On a serious note @Porthos, @Eric and @FlashMaster659 and many more are doing a great job. Especially brilliant write ups. They should post updates to front page of this site. What do you think @Water Bottle

[The Chad DC]

What are the walk up numbers like? I feel like people will line up for this over the weekend.

[Old Spice]

2 minutes ago, The Chad DC said:

What are the walk up numbers like? I feel like people will line up for this over the weekend.

Will be posting a report from my Salt Lake City theater once the final show begins in about 50 minutes, but they are VERY strong here.

[keysersoze123]

1st stab at OD PS at AMC across the country. Definitely missing few shows plus there will be additional shows added tomorrow(plus there will be errors retrieving data as well). I will try to run this morning PST and see if we can get a pattern.

Joker OD PS AMC

Tickets Sold/Total Tickets(5701 shows): 90350 / 620027

 

Not bad but its going to depend on walkins to put a huge OD number. I am hoping for 300K+ sales

[Old Spice]

Joker final count from Salt Lake City for preview night, Cinemark Sugarhouse, 11 showings.

 

Total 586/779 75.2%

 

36% of the total tix sold were purchased after I did my late-afternoon report, so the evening shows were very walkup heavy. Hopefully good WOM translates to more of the same this weekend.

 

 

Edited October 4, 2019 by A Star is Orm

[Felandria]

Yeah, I went and saw it at Disney Springs today, the Dolby was fullish and the dine ins were solid, but the regular showtimes were not remotely full, my showing had maybe 30 people in a 500+ seat theater, and the two 300+ seat theaters were about the same.

 

and I’m seeing a lot of mostly empty showings tomorrow except for the premium formats.

 

Is Joker getting a lot of walk up business? Because what I’ve been seeing at Disney Springs is significantly below what Halloween was doing last year.

 

Although I suspect part of the problem is that they went a little overboard on the showtimes, it’s doing well enough but the theaters seem so empty because there’s so many showtimes.