The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

Can see as low as 1.1B :

185 * 2.85 = 525 Dom

Dom heavier than TLJ's 46.5%-53.5% for say 47.7%-52.3% gives it 575 OS

525 + 575 = 1100

Can't see it under 1B though. Where do you remove 100 from the above.

If you assume an OW more in the $170M range...

 

170 *2.85 = $484.5 DOM

Split it 49/51 DOM/OS and you would come in under $1B by a hair...but if it were that tight, no way does Disney not push it over...

 

Not saying I see this, but this would be a path to finishing a hair's breadth under $1B...

 

Honestly, I think even if the open is $170M, I have a hard time thinking this won't push above $500M, even if only slightly with that open...and that takes $1B out...unless it's really, really another toxic movie...but I can't see JJ making a toxic movie...maybe he doesn't make a good one, but it does tend to at least be enjoyable til your 5 minutes out of the theater:)...

[pepsa]

2 hours ago, jedijake said:

Agreed. Under $1 billion is really trolling to me. 

 

I don't want to go down the path of under $190 million OW domestic. Nor do I want to go below $580 million domestic overall. But I am starting to really wonder and, yeah, worry a bit. If the preview # comes in less than $37 million I will really be concerned.

 

I'd rather TROS go out with a bang the way EG, Deathly Hallows 2, and ROTK did for their franchises and NOT the way Hunger Games, Matrix, and POTC did for theirs (although POTC5 was my 2nd favorite POTC film asfter COTBP). So under TLJ would be dissapointing but I could at least tolerate as low as $580 million domestic or MAYBE as low as $570 million but that's really getting down there for me. But unless this movie ends up WAY above TLJ, people are going to find ways to call it a failure no matter what. That's just where we are.

The bar to me is under TLJ = not good, under 1.2B quite bad for SW as a whole, SW lost all most all the asian markets / big parts of LA so basicly all the growing markets and it losing ground in europe / domisitc. 1.2B is still good number in isolation but it would continue a bad trend + it would shot that SW isn't as big of an event. Under 1.1B is very bad. The 0.1% it has to go below 1B ww would be awefull. Over TLJ would be good and over 1.5B is great in my opinion. Also DOM over 700m is also extremely good. 

[RockyMountain]

19 minutes ago, Knights of Ren said:

Collider is toxic as hell.  Well at least Marc Fernandez 

Yeah I don't watch Rule of Two that has Marc Fernandez. I usually just watch Jedi Council and occasionally one of the regular movie news shows they have. I don't have a problem with Fernandez's point of view but he just doesn't have a very good on air personality and ever since he took over the site a lot of the good personalities Collider had have strangely been leaving.

Edited December 15, 2019 by RockyMountain

[Zozer]

So...any new data?

[charlie Jatinder]

More likely than not, Dom>OS for TRS 

[jedijake]

2 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

More likely than not, Dom>OS for TRS 

It hasn't been like that for TFA, RO, or TLJ. If what you say is true, then it WILL barely hit $1 billion. I'd say at this point hitting TLJ's domestic total is a VERY difficult task and even $600 million is sounding like quite a feat.

 

Please, there's GOT to be SOME good news about this movie!

Edited December 15, 2019 by jedijake

[Legion Again]

Just now, jedijake said:

It hasn't been like that for TFA, RO, or TLJ. If what you say is true, then it WILL barely hit $1 billion.

 

Please, there's GOT to be SOME good news about this movie!

It was like that for RO. And if it’s liked TROS will easily do 580+ DOM, potentially well north of that. So a 50% DOM ratio wouldn’t be such a bad thing.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Please, there's GOT to be SOME good news about this movie!

 

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

11 minutes ago, jedijake said:

It hasn't been like that for TFA, RO, or TLJ. If what you say is true, then it WILL barely hit $1 billion. I'd say at this point hitting TLJ's domestic total is a VERY difficult task and even $600 million is sounding like quite a feat.

 

Please, there's GOT to be SOME good news about this movie!

200m OW 5x legs 1 billion domestic , 800m os

[ZackM]

Jumanji: The Next Level Various theater chains (Michigan) Final Sunday Seat Report
12/14/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	279	53,620	55,771	2,151	3.86%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	1	1	1	1

 

 

Very strange.  There's a tiny showing with only 38 seats that sold out for tomorrow.  It's the only showing that has sold more than 60% of its seats.

[MattW]

Here's a rough guess at what level star wars will be at through the holidays.

Spoiler

 

12/19/2019	40	40
12/20/2019	90	50
12/21/2019	145	55
12/22/2019	192	47
Weekend 1		152
Week 1		192
12/23/2019	222	30
12/24/2019	242	20
12/25/2019	277	35
12/26/2019	315	38
12/27/2019	349	34
12/28/2019	384	35
12/29/2019	409	25
Weekend 2		94
Week 2		217
12/30/2019	427	18
12/31/2019	441	14
1/1/2020	461	20
1/2/2020	471	10
1/3/2020	484	13
1/4/2020	501	17
1/5/2020	511	10
Weekend 3		40
Week 3		102
1/6/2020	514.5	3.5
1/7/2020	519.5	5
1/8/2020	522.5	3
1/9/2020	525.3	2.8
1/10/2020	530.3	5
1/11/2020	539.3	9
1/12/2020	544.9	5.6
Weekend 4		19.6
Week 4		33.9

 

Edit: The 25-29th is probably too high. I loosely modeled it after hobbit2 but even pushing things down a bit, those days still look a bit too rich.  

 

 

Edited December 15, 2019 by MattW

[charlie Jatinder]

23 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Please, there's GOT to be SOME good news about this movie!

how is that a bad news 🤔

 

that's what SW is.

[Knights of Ren]

25 minutes ago, jedijake said:

It hasn't been like that for TFA, RO, or TLJ. If what you say is true, then it WILL barely hit $1 billion. I'd say at this point hitting TLJ's domestic total is a VERY difficult task and even $600 million is sounding like quite a feat.

 

Please, there's GOT to be SOME good news about this movie!

They decided to go ahead and cancel the release based on your fears.  Its heading straight to Disney+.

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	-1	0	0	17
Seats Added	6	-33	1	3	3,193
Seats Sold	586	566	614	400	566
12/14/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	267	27,508	46,134	18,626	40.37%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	16	39	60	89	113

[darthdevidem01]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

It hasn't been like that for TFA, RO, or TLJ. If what you say is true, then it WILL barely hit $1 billion. I'd say at this point hitting TLJ's domestic total is a VERY difficult task and even $600 million is sounding like quite a feat.

 

Please, there's GOT to be SOME good news about this movie!

Yeah im effing preparing myself for the worst wanted this to do 1.5 Billion...no way in hell thats happening now with how things look

 

To think it might go below Rogue One. Good god

[RockyMountain]

To be honest I think JediJake has been spending too much time listening to Geeks and Gamers. 

[RockyMountain]

1 minute ago, darthdevidem01 said:

Yeah im effing preparing myself for the worst wanted this to do 1.5 Billion...no way in hell thats happening now with how things look

 

To think it might go below Rogue One. Good god

Don't get caught up in JediJake's drama. 

[keysersoze123]

Can we at least thread ban that guy. He is adding nothing to this thread. If he wants to troll limit him to SW9 thread.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Cats presales seem to be doing relatively good? doesn't seem like it will bomb unless frontloaded and scares away families

[RockyMountain]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can we at least thread ban that guy. He is adding nothing to this thread. If he wants to troll limit him to SW9 thread.

Or at the very least steer him to the Jedi Council forums box office thread where it is pretty much all about dramatizing things. Course I have a sneaking suspicion he is someone that already regularly posts over there.