The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Ah I thought it was Deadline. Hopefully they’re way off, even on the high end. 

I usually go with BOP tracking over Deadline. Deadline initial tracking is usually total bs.

[AdrianL]

I don't see Mulan opening below 80m. The animated film is more beloved than a lot of people think.

[keysersoze123]

The Call of the Wild(T-2)

MTC1 - overall 584 shows 3635/98588 59793.13 48934.60

MTC2 - overall 853 shows 4967/113283 50574.91 39694.70

 

Still PS is very low. Will need huge ramp up to even hit 1m previews. Let us where things are tomorrow. It could do well with walk ups as its a family movie. I could see it hit mid teens OW even with small previews. I will update with OD PS sometime later. 

 

Brahms: the boys II (T-2)

MTC1 - overall 391 shows 879/55404 11386.85 8761.94

MTC2 - overall 468 shows 397/60430 4664.15 3249.71

 

This has probably lowest PS that I have tracked. Lower than Turning. Definitely headed towards single digit weekend. 

[Eric Duncan]

2 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

It's still very early in the week and most theatres are still finalizing their showtimes for the weekend, but I am noticing some IMAX showings for Parasite popping up at some AMC theatres. Does anyone know, is this something that is going to be widespread this weekend? I feel like if it's playing on some IMAX screens, they are probably pushing it as much as they can? Harley Quinn had them the past two weeks, so you could see why they'd want new blood before Invisible Man (which is also listed as an IMAX release).

 

Would be very cool if this is widespread this weekend!

EDIT - At least 5 cities playing it in IMAX listed so far, including the huge Navy Pier IMAX in Chicago. Looks like we are getting a Parasite IMAX release this weekend boys and girls!!

Sadly, it seems like Birds of Prey is still keeping IMAX here in Philly, which is so bizarre to me. I know that WB and IMAX are really close and have a priority contract, but there's no way BOP is still selling that much in the format.

[DAJK]

I had no idea Invisible Man is getting IMAX. That's going to be a fun one to track IMAX comps for here for sure

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Call of the Wild(T-2)

MTC1 - overall 584 shows 3635/98588 59793.13 48934.60

MTC2 - overall 853 shows 4967/113283 50574.91 39694.70

 

Still PS is very low. Will need huge ramp up to even hit 1m previews. Let us where things are tomorrow. It could do well with walk ups as its a family movie. I could see it hit mid teens OW even with small previews. I will update with OD PS sometime later. 

 

Brahms: the boys II (T-2)

MTC1 - overall 391 shows 879/55404 11386.85 8761.94

MTC2 - overall 468 shows 397/60430 4664.15 3249.71

 

This has probably lowest PS that I have tracked. Lower than Turning. Definitely headed towards single digit weekend. 

The Call of the Wild OD

MTC1 - overall 1274 shows 5576/220521 84037.20 70659.84 post 6PM 640 shows 3332/111045 54560.15 44877.09

MTC2 - overall 1959 shows 7054/288168 68243.35 54763.33 post 6PM 799 shows 3085/117898 35861.09 24880.95

 

Just as I thought OD PS is much better. MTC1 showtimes are not yet final. You will see a huge boost in showtimes tomorrow. I expect it to take the lead tomorrow. I think at least mid teens OW will happen based on the data seen so far. Reviews are not bad either and it has Ford. 

[Eric Duncan]

Brahms: Dat Boi II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	36	2,577	1.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp

0.367x of Crawl 2 days before release (367K)

0.185x of Scary Stories (430K)

0.643x of 47 Meters (332K)

0.766x of Black Christmas (176K)

0.537x of Underwater (269K)

1.565x of The Turning (665K)

0.900x of Gretel & Hansel (427K)

 

 

No words.

[Eric Duncan]

The Call of the Wild Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	49	3,299	1.49%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 498

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

0.471x of Dora 2 days before release (589K)

1.815x of Racing in Rain (817K)

0.817x of Abominable (531K)

0.282x of Addams Family (352K)

1.485x of Playing with Fire (668K)

0.612x of Dolittle (566K)

 

It's better than Dat Boi II for sure. But I'm still not very impressed.

[Eric Duncan]

Onward Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	48	8,937	0.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.421x of Maleficent 16 days before release (968K)
1.454x of Dolittle (1.34M)

0.800x of Sonic (2.4M)

[Eric Duncan]

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-93 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	370	12,658	2.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, Menor said:

I usually go with BOP tracking over Deadline. Deadline initial tracking is usually total bs.

Deadline initially just puts in Industry tracking based on Awareness/Definite Interest/first choice numbers. That may or may not be accurate. BOP is predicting based on social numbers. Again its accuracy tends to be all over the place. Initial prediction had Dolittle ahead of Bad Boys 🙂

[Legion Again]

How’s Brahms OD looking, if it’s not too much trouble. As putrid as the Thurs?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

How’s Brahms OD looking, if it’s not too much trouble. As putrid as the Thurs?

I did not think the genre will have backloaded PS sales. 

 

Anyway

 

Brahms: Boys II

MTC1 - overall 1108 shows 1140/152899 14907.00 11714.70 post 6PM 600 shows 911/83355 12137.43 9435.60

MTC2 - overall 1218 shows 1198/165306 11600.99 8940.88 post 6PM 491 shows 670/65933 7432.88 5144.19

 

As putrid as thursday for sure 🙂

Edited February 19, 2020 by keysersoze123

[Boxofficerules]

4 hours ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Brahms: Dat Boi II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	36	2,577	1.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp

0.367x of Crawl 2 days before release (367K)

0.185x of Scary Stories (430K)

0.643x of 47 Meters (332K)

0.766x of Black Christmas (176K)

0.537x of Underwater (269K)

1.565x of The Turning (665K)

0.900x of Gretel & Hansel (427K)

 

 

No words.

Shouldn’t it have higher pre sales cause it’s a sequel?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Literally 0 sales for Invisible Man/Onward at my local Cinemark. But presales are usually weak here 

 

The other Cinemark in the town has 0 Thursday tickets sold for Invisible Man. For Onward, just 1 for the 6pm IMAX

 

At AMC, Invisible Man currently has 10 tickets sold for the 7pm Dolby showing. 0 for IMAX 730. The 6pm Dolby opening for Onward has sold 5 tickets, the 845 has 3, and the IMAX 630 has 2

[VanillaSkies]

This weekend is actually going to be a really fun experiment to watch Parasite. 
I can't recall a wide-spread IMAX release of a film that is already on streaming/DVD that wasn't some sort of special showing of a classic.  I'm so intrigued to see how this performs. I'm sure the industry as a whole is as well, as it could have implications on future releases and how they are treated once released to streaming/DVD. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadline initially just puts in Industry tracking based on Awareness/Definite Interest/first choice numbers. That may or may not be accurate. BOP is predicting based on social numbers. Again its accuracy tends to be all over the place. Initial prediction had Dolittle ahead of Bad Boys 🙂

True but BOP at least is much better at updating as more information comes in.

[el sid]

The Call of the Wild, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 7 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 15 (total tickets sold for Friday, 5 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 26 / 36 (4 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 12 / 10 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 9 / 2 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 / 30 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): showtimes): - / 12 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 7 / 6 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): no showtimes so far
LA (AMC Bay Street): 30 / 29 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 23 / 28 (8 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 8/9 theaters till today for Thursday: 125 and for Friday: 168.

Comps: Dolittle had on Wednesday 317/308 sold tickets, Maleficent 2 1.190/1.444.
Hopefully it looks better tomorrow.

The Boy II, also counted at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 5 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 11 (total tickets sold for Friday, 5 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 11 / 12 (2 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 5 / 5 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 2 / 1 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 / 2 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): showtimes): no showtimes so far
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 6 / 0 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 28 / 22 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 5 / 1 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 13 / 5 (5 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9 theaters till today for Thursday: 77 and for Friday: 59.

Comps: Scary Stories had on Wednesday 645/475, Crawl 261/209, Countdown 170/131, Underwater 179/170, Gretel & Hansel 199/190 and Fantasy Island had 0/663. The Turning had on Thursday 239/219 sold tickets.
Even worse! Fits to the other reports here. Maybe the holiday on Monday caused a little delay? We will see tomorrow.

[Shawn Robbins]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadline initially just puts in Industry tracking based on Awareness/Definite Interest/first choice numbers. That may or may not be accurate. BOP is predicting based on social numbers. Again its accuracy tends to be all over the place. Initial prediction had Dolittle ahead of Bad Boys 🙂

We actually include a variety of metrics, not just social (esp. close to release). Accuracy is generally only relevant in apples-to-apples comps and/or upon release week since a variety of elements are always in play. Bit unfair to compare any service tracking weeks/months out to data that's not available until much later in the pre-release window.

 

Tracking is really just a barometer of where things are heading at any given point in time, not an official prediction. That's the biggest difference between traditional tracking and looking at pre-sales -- the latter is a set-in-stone sales point that removes more of the challenge of separating interest from actual intent to see on opening weekend, but it's also limited in its use because (by definition) it can only include movies that are on sale. Dolittle was a good example because it only tracked (in our models) ahead of BBFL before reviews started leaking. Two weeks out, we showed BBFL steadily climbing higher.

 

Everything else is measured in surveys, historical comps, and trend-based elements that are open to fluctuation at any given time. To be fair though, we include pre-sales trajectories and that kind of tracking has proven fairly volatile too depending on what samples and what comps one looks at. There's always a certain subjectivity to all of this. That's why we focus on all available data and update as necessary, not just one subset of info at one point in time.

[Boxofficerules]

Is it just me or are things not looking great for The Invisible Man?