The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[lorddemaxus]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Onward is gonna be a legs beast. The best Pixar legs for non-Holiday season film. 5x unless OW is boosted hugely by WoM.

Any reason for that? If anything, Soul looks like the possible legs beast. Onward looks like a mid-tier (Monsters U, Finding Dory) Pixar film and I doubt the WoM for Onward is better than Coco which managed a 4.14x multi

 

4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I can see Venom 2 getting there with Morbius and Machines doing in the 150M range.

I'm expecting a smaller OW and worse legs for Venom 2 which should lead to sub-200 mil finish. Venom 2 only needs a 7% drop from the first film to go sub-200 mil and most non-MCU first sequels drop more than that.

Edited February 18, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My expectations for Disney : ow/Domestic total

 

Onward: 60m/300m

Mulan: 45m/140m

Black Widow: 130m/300m

Soul: 90m/340m

Jungle Cruise: 30m/90m

Eternals: 150m/400m

Raya the last dragon: 70m 5-day/180m

 

Total Domestic: 1750m

 

Onward: 50m/185m

Mulan: 90m/265m (feels like Aladdin underpredictions all over again)

Widow: 130m/325m

Artemis Fowl: 15m/50m

Soul: 95m/365m

Jungle Cruise: 35m/115m
Ivan: 20m/75m

Eternals: 150m/425m

Raya: 75m (five day)/250m (don’t get the low DOM for this one either, December is weak and nothing else family wise in the Nov-Dec timeframe except for maybe Tom and Jerry is doing over 100M+ DOM)

 

$2.055B DOM

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I agree to an extent, thinking around 4-4.5x with good WOM, there’s also a lot of family competition from Mulan, Peter Rabbit and Trolls which may impact late legs.

in hindi,

"arre kyun pade ho chakkar mein, koi nhi hai takkar mein"

literal translation

"why are you in circles (bothering), there's no one in collision (anywhere near in competition)"

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

in hindi,

"arre kyun pade ho chakkar mein, koi nhi hai takkar mein"

literal translation

"why are you in circles (bothering), there's no one in collision (anywhere near in competition)"

I mean Easter is in mid April, and having a family movie from March 27th to April 17th almost every other week, is still theaters and screens loss. That’s like box office 101.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Onward: 50m/185m

Mulan: 90m/265m (feels like Aladdin underpredictions all over again)

Widow: 130m/325m

Artemis Fowl: 15m/50m

Soul: 95m/365m

Jungle Cruise: 35m/115m
Ivan: 20m/75m

Eternals: 150m/425m

Raya: 75m (five day)/250m (don’t get the low DOM for this one either, December is weak and nothing else family wise in the Nov-Dec timeframe except for maybe Tom and Jerry is doing over 100M+ DOM)

 

$2.055B DOM

Is Artemis Fowl still coming out in May? Disney is doing literally zilch to promote it. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I mean Easter is in mid April, and having a family movie from March 27th to April 17th almost every other week, is still theaters and screens loss. That’s like box office 101.

So did Zootopia. Right?

[YM!]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So did Zootopia. Right?

No. Zootopia had no family competition until The Jungle Book which was mid April on it’s seventh week which had a 40%+ drop. Also there was no family films at all since Kung Fu Panda which did ~140m iirc.

 

Onward faces Mulan on its fourth week, Peter Rabbit 2 on its fifth and Trolls 2 on its seventh. A benefit is Easter weekend is on the sixth to offset a drop. That said, family films take theater space which is something we all know, take Boss Baby which fell nearly 50% on its second weekend due to Smurfs which did sub 15m OW, Lego Batman’s late legs collasped due to the one-two-Three punch of Beast, Boss Baby and Smurfs back to back. It is also is after Sonic, which at the very minimum I’m expecting 150M, more likely 180-200M
 

Granted it won’t effect Onward’s second weekend or third weekend which if as long as it keeps the Pixar quality, I wouldn’t expect drops under 35% for those two weekends but I do think the films after it will hamper late legs a bit due to space. That said I don’t see under a 3.5x multiple for Onward, especially since I’m guessing both Mulan and Trolls want 4,000+ theaters and Rabbit 2 likely at 3,500 theaters

Edited February 18, 2020 by YourMother the Edgelord

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Onward faces Mulan on its fourth week

Zootopia faced bigger threat, Batman v Superman on 4th weekend.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Zootopia faced bigger threat, Batman v Superman on 4th weekend.

Batman v Superman isn’t direct competition though. Direct competition hurts worse. 
 

Hell, I wouldn’t discount Mulan for a 100M OW either.

Edited February 18, 2020 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Madhuvan]

So, after pessimistic predictions here is my optimistic one. 

 

Onward           65m/280m

Mulan              85m/280m

Black Widow  145m/385m

Soul                  75m/340m

Jungle Cruise  45m/180m

Eternals          150m/400m

Raya                 85m 5-day/300m

 Total               2.165b

 

So,even in optimistic prediction it's a big drop. 

 

Edited February 18, 2020 by Madhuvan

[john2000]

17 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

So, after pessimistic predictions here is my optimistic one. 

 

Onward           65m/280m

Mulan              85m/280m

Black Widow  145m/385m

Soul                  75m/340m

Jungle Cruise  45m/180m

Eternals          150m/400m

Raya                 85m 5-day/300m

 Total               2.165b

 

So,even in optimistic prediction it's a big drop. 

 

still thats huge, what did you expect for this year 3 ? nope

[Movies4Life]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My expectations for Disney : ow/Domestic total

 

Onward: 60m/300m

Mulan: 45m/140m

Black Widow: 130m/300m

Soul: 90m/340m

Jungle Cruise: 30m/90m

Eternals: 150m/400m

Raya the last dragon: 70m 5-day/180m

 

Total Domestic: 1750m

 

I’m surprised you think Eternals can hit $400M.

[DAJK]

Sure, if we're doing this, why not jump in?

 

Onward: 55/200

Mulan: 70/220 (I think this will be closer to Cinderella than anything at this point)

Black Widow: 155/385

Artemis Fowl: 19/55

Soul: 80/315

Jungle Cruise: 55/160
Ivan: 30/90

Eternals: 120/300

Raya: 60(three-day)/240 (Moana #s)

 

$1.965B 

 

[Legion Again]

At this rate we need a 2020 version of @ElsaRoc’s club 😛 

[Eric Duncan]

21 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

At this rate we need a 2020 version of @ElsaRoc’s club 😛 

Your wish is granted.

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/17/2020 at 2:38 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

6

1434

0.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

10

1610

0.62%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
39	4	7694	0.51%	9	40

 

Gonna hold back on comps for now since the advanced Saturday screenings are most likely affecting presales for Thursday.

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

6

1434

0.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

10

1610

0.62%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
40	1	7694	0.52%	9	40

[Krissykins]

5 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Batman v Superman isn’t direct competition though. Direct competition hurts worse. 
 

Hell, I wouldn’t discount Mulan for a 100M OW either.

Isn’t Mulan tracking between $40-60m? 
 

I think Aladdin had crappy initial tracking too though. 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Isn’t Mulan tracking between $40-60m? 
 

I think Aladdin had crappy initial tracking too though. 

That’s not real tracking, it’s just BOP projections.

[VanillaSkies]

It's still very early in the week and most theatres are still finalizing their showtimes for the weekend, but I am noticing some IMAX showings for Parasite popping up at some AMC theatres. Does anyone know, is this something that is going to be widespread this weekend? I feel like if it's playing on some IMAX screens, they are probably pushing it as much as they can? Harley Quinn had them the past two weeks, so you could see why they'd want new blood before Invisible Man (which is also listed as an IMAX release).

 

Would be very cool if this is widespread this weekend!

EDIT - At least 5 cities playing it in IMAX listed so far, including the huge Navy Pier IMAX in Chicago. Looks like we are getting a Parasite IMAX release this weekend boys and girls!!

Edited February 18, 2020 by VanillaSkies

[Krissykins]

52 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

That’s not real tracking, it’s just BOP projections.

Ah I thought it was Deadline. Hopefully they’re way off, even on the high end.