The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Tinalera]

Yesci noticed it last time too. I wasnt sure if i should add it or not. Its done it for two movies now. Ill keep an eye on it and if it continues with future updates ill definitely make note of it. 

Either that or theres c3a film club with 154 members splitting 2 shows lol

[el sid]

The Call of the Wild, counted today at 10am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 35 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 84 (total tickets sold for Friday, 5 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 32 / 46 (9 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 24 / 19 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 21 / 9 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 18 / 51 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): showtimes): 2 / 25 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 11 / 8 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): no showtimes
LA (AMC Bay Street): 43 / 33 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 38 / 39 (8 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9 theaters till today for Thursday: 224 and for Friday: 314.

That the big theater in San Francisco is missing makes it look worse than it is. Yesterday it had 125/168 so it's up 79% and 87%.
Comps: Dolittle had on Thursday 386/516 sold tickets (in the same 9 theaters it would be 300/407) so The Call of the Wild did catch up. And Maleficent2 had 671/883 in 7 theaters (in the same 7 theaters The Call of the Wild has 143/242 sold tickets).
At least it looks better than yesterday. With ok walk ups I guess 15M+ should happen.

The Boy II, also counted at 10am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 45 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 59 (total tickets sold for Friday, 5 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 23 / 27 (6 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 6 / 5 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 5 / 2 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 / 11 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): showtimes): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 13 / 3 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 33 / 35 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 7 / 1 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 34 / 12 (5 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9 theaters till today for Thursday: 169 and for Friday: 155.

Yesterday it were 77/59 tickets, up 120% and 163%, a big increase but of course at a very low level.
Comps: The Grudge had on Thursday 475/331 sold tickets, Scary Stories 1.096/754, Crawl 417/334, Countdown 248/190, The Turning 239/219, Gretel & Hansel 295/301 and Fantasy Island had 0/888.
As other members mentioned already, the title recognition will probably not really work here because of the trailers. So maybe it could reach a bit more than 5M but for sure will stay under 10M OW.

[Shawn Robbins]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thanks Shawn. I meant initial prediction which is generally seen 6-7 weeks before release. I thought industry tracking is not out until 3 weeks before release. I was not critiquing BOP. Just put it that when predictions are made long before release they tend to be all over the place. Breakouts are under predicted while disappointments are over predicted(DP/BOP etc). We also have movies like Frozen 2 where final weekend was very close to initial prediction(125m?). I understand predictions tend to change a lot once we have tracking data. 

No worries, I didn't take it as a critique necessarily -- just wanted to highlight a bit more insight on what goes into the numbers we put out. We did use to rely more heavily on social a few years back. It's still a big factor, no doubt, but a smaller portion of the recipe than it once was. I tend to do similar pre-sales watching with certain theaters I'm familiar with and major metro areas, but it's time consuming on one's own (as I know a lot of you know!)

 

Definitely agree on long range tending to have a wider range of results. That's one reason we started including ranges alongside the pinpoint numbers last year.

 

I've seen a few bits of the pre-sales catching you and others do in this thread and it's awesome work. Hope you all keep it up!

[charlie Jatinder]

With all due respect, ever since I come across this thread, didn't gave two shits about industry tracking or any other publication for that matter.

 

Fandango tracking was one thing, ever since we are getting MTC 1 & 3 it doesn't even matter what industry is thinking.

 

ffs if all with your tracking metrics, you can't tell that Endgame will cross 300mn OW which are our thread pointed out clearly & TRoS missing 200mn or even 180mn, you are not needed.

[charlie Jatinder]

ffs this is what tracking was telling us 3 weeks out. 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/heat-vision/avengers-endgame-tracking-monster-200m-250m-us-debut-1199461

Avengers: Endgame' Tracking for Monster $200M-$250M U.S. Debut

[charlie Jatinder]

And mind you. That's after 2 days of Endgame obliterating Star Wars 24 hours presales records in 5 hours of "not even morning" in West Cost.

[Eric Duncan]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/hunt-tracking-10m-opening-late-release-1280129

 

The Hunt: 9-12M

Bloodshot: 10-12M

[DAJK]

9 minutes ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/hunt-tracking-10m-opening-late-release-1280129

 

The Hunt: 9-12M

Bloodshot: 10-12M

imo The Hunt could go higher than that. It just got a release date basically last week, they haven't had time to ramp up ANY marketing yet. Unless it's terrible, I think it should be good for 15 or more. 

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/hunt-tracking-10m-opening-late-release-1280129

 

The Hunt: 9-12M

Bloodshot: 10-12M

 

That would make a recent above $30M opener of an other SH movie look good.

 

Very back in the days, Sony was thinking of doing a $80M net budget movie with $110M domestic, $300m WW at the box office for Bloodshot.

 

Diesel could still make it a very big OS affair too.

[dxmatrixdt]

.

Edited June 26, 2020 by abusive brainwashed Christ

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, freedom warrior benedict said:

Bloodshot looks like it might fall over

I had no idea until now (or I learned and forgot) that it was coming up that soon.

[Tinalera]

Cineplex "buy advance tickets for invisible Man"

Okay!

 

"Invisible not showing in X theatre on feb 27" 

Okay feb 28

 

"Invisible Man not showing..."

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/19/2020 at 2:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

6

1434

0.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

14

1610

0.87%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
54	14	7694	0.70%	9	40

 

Looks like the social media reactions gave a nice boost.

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

6

1434

0.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

14

1610

0.87%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
59	5	7694	0.77%	9	40

[keysersoze123]

16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Call of the Wild(T-1)

MTC1 Prev - overall 752 shows 5794/120308 93451.18 76168.00

MTC2 Prev -overall 874 shows 3388/121469 39614.35 27592.15

 

The Call of the Wild Previews(Mid Day Thursday Update)

MTC1 - overall 805 shows 11343/128149 174919.43 141269.41

MTC2 - overall 883 shows 7371/122941 84547.75 59074.63

 

Almost doubled at MTC1 and slightly more than doubled at MTC2 though it was very low. I think it can hit 30K tickets sold between 2 MTC as Ford should help bring in older audience that will ensure some attendance for later shows. I would say 0.85m previews at this point. 

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Call of the Wild Previews(Mid Day Thursday Update)

MTC1 - overall 805 shows 11343/128149 174919.43 141269.41

MTC2 - overall 883 shows 7371/122941 84547.75 59074.63

 

Almost doubled at MTC1 and slightly more than doubled at MTC2 though it was very low. I think it can hit 30K tickets sold between 2 MTC as Ford should help bring in older audience that will ensure some attendance for later shows. I would say 0.85m previews at this point. 

Does it have any chance at over a 20 mil weekend?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Does it have any chance at over a 20 mil weekend?

Chance is always there though I wont say that is probable. Its looking at mid teens based on where things stand. Let us see where OD PS ends up. That will provide better perspective. 

[lorddemaxus]

double post

Edited February 20, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Cineplex "buy advance tickets for invisible Man"

Okay!

 

"Invisible not showing in X theatre on feb 27" 

Okay feb 28

 

"Invisible Man not showing..."

Thematically appropriate 

[keysersoze123]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Brahms: Boys II (T-1)

MTC1 Prev - overall 503 shows 1670/67379 21651.14 16671.93

MTC2 Prev - overall 524 shows 698/65925 8060.90 5548.21

Dire numbers. sub 0.5m previews and single digit OW I would say. 

Brahms: Boys II Previews(Mid day Thursday Update)

MTC1 - overall 533 shows 3809/70614 49036.57 37690.05

MTC2 - overall 523 shows 1914/65826 22054.61 15247.65

 

Ticket sales have more than doubled at both MTC but overall numbers still ridiculously low. I would say 0.25m previews at this point. That would need numbers to double from this point which is not hard considering how low it is. 

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

That would make a recent above $30M opener of an other SH movie look good.

 

Very back in the days, Sony was thinking of doing a $80M net budget movie with $110M domestic, $300m WW at the box office for Bloodshot.

 

Diesel could still make it a very big OS affair too.

Bloodshot has a 42 Million budget;Sony considerably scaled down it's ambitions for this film.

Does Diesel have that big of a OS following?