The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

8 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Anybody know when Raya tickets go on sale? Might be the first movie since Tenet/WW84 worth tracking a bit.

They've been on sale since the 5th. However, they have not popped up at any of the big chains yet, at least where I am. Don't know if AMC/Cinemark refuse to show it because it's on Premier Access or whatever. If they are refusing, then that's very dumb.

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, Eric Gardner said:

They've been on sale since the 5th. However, they have not popped up at any of the big chains yet, at least where I am. Don't know if AMC/Cinemark refuse to show it because it's on Premier Access or whatever. If they are refusing, then that's very dumb.

Thanks. Interesting.   
 

They’ve been happy to play $0 0-day window hybrids, so I assume they’ll come around on $30 0-day hybrids.

[TwoMisfits]

55 minutes ago, Eric Gardner said:

They've been on sale since the 5th. However, they have not popped up at any of the big chains yet, at least where I am. Don't know if AMC/Cinemark refuse to show it because it's on Premier Access or whatever. If they are refusing, then that's very dumb.

AMC does not even LIST Raya on its national coming soon page yet - this should actually get interesting b/c I assume Disney is trying to get its same 65% revenue deal or its "X window" deal and something that is causing theaters to balk, especially since it's PVOD anyway and Tom and Jerry is out only one week prior...

 

Edit to Add - Same at Cinemark - no mention on national coming soon page...

 

Edit #2 - I have one Cobb theater showing Raya in my area to buy presale tickets at (it's an hour away) - that is through Atom, but I can confirm there are sales, so it is presale open in some places...

Edited February 15, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

I'm not expecting much from Raya in theaters tbh. Doubt it does as well (by pandemic standards) as The Croods has. It's clearly being released as a boost for + with a theatrical release only so that it can qualify for the next awards cycle (we don't know what the rules for that will look like yet).

 

The Premier Access model is clearly working for Disney if they used it again and have said that this won't be the last title to go this route. I'm guessing Soul was released on the service without a paywall because it ended up bypassing theaters completely minus a few territories and wasn't literally right about to open before the world fell apart like Mulan was.

Edited February 16, 2021 by filmlover

[charlie Jatinder]

@filmlover I think Raya releasing on D+ isn't because premier access is success but Disney is testing Premier access.

 

Mulan was pure PA without theatrical release.

 

Soul was without PA and theatrical release.

 

Raya is with PA and theatrical release when COVID is starting to get better.

 

So three different test points for Disney to figure this out.

[Legion Again]

$0 0-day windows haven’t been hitting movies like WW and The Little Things that much. Have to imagine $30 0-day windows hurt even less. If you only have a party of 1 or 2 (or even larger in certain parts of country and certain days) it’s straight up cheaper to buy tickets.   
 

On the other hand if you think your kids will want to rewatch, PA gains in value there.

Edited February 16, 2021 by WandaLegion

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

On the other hand if you think your kids will want to rewatch, PA gains in value there.

That's the real selling point honestly. For a family of four, it's almost certainly cheaper than loading up the car to shell out more than that on ticket prices and and plus an additional amount on concessions (when you can just eat the food in your house).

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

$0 0-day windows haven’t been hitting movies like WW and The Little Things that much. Have to imagine $30 0-day windows hurt even less. If you only have a party of 1 or 2 (or even larger in certain parts of country and certain days) it’s straight up cheaper to buy tickets.   
 

On the other hand if you think your kids will want to rewatch, PA gains in value there.

Well, they have depending on subscriber base and movie type...see Netflix releases vs HBO Max (WB) releases...

 

Disney's base is like Netflix, but its movie type is like WB...

 

Makes it all interesting...

 

 

 

[filmlover]

FYI Raya is on AMC's website now but it's still nowhere to be found on Cinemark's. Although Cinemark doesn't look like it's getting Disney-owned Searchlight's Nomadland at all either so I'm guessing they're just passing on their hybrid releases (for now, at least).

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

FYI Raya is on AMC's website now but it's still nowhere to be found on Cinemark's. Although Cinemark doesn't look like it's getting Disney-owned Searchlight's Nomadland at all either so I'm guessing they're just passing on their hybrid releases (for now, at least).

Cinemark is an interesting case b/c its subscriber plan was so different than Regal's and AMC's.

 

To keep their subscribers happy, they only need one big movie a month, since their subscriber plans only include that in the base (subscribers pay and get a single monthly ticket); whereas, AMC (and eventually Regal) need a ton to keep their base happy (since they get 3 tickets/week, last I checked:).

 

We've seen no numbers for almost a year, but I bet, when you look at the big 3's subscriber bases, Cinemark has probably retained the most monthly subscribers, and that retention is probably also what's keeping its system mostly healthy and afloat.

 

And so, when Cinemark needs to decide on the "big movie" or two per month to appeal to different parts of their base plan, they probably want 55% revenue retention on hybrid movies vs whatever Disney is asking for (aka letting them keep)...so, they booked WB (who only takes 45%), but so far, not Disney...

Edited February 18, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Cinemark is an interesting case b/c its subscriber plan was so different than Regal's and AMC's.

 

To keep their subscribers happy, they only need one big movie a month, since their subscriber plans only include that in the base (subscribers pay and get a single monthly ticket); whereas, AMC (and eventually Regal) need a ton to keep their base happy (since they get 3 tickets/week, last I checked:).

 

We've seen no numbers for almost a year, but I bet, when you look at the big 3's subscriber bases, Cinemark has probably retained the most monthly subscribers, and that retention is probably also what's keeping its system mostly healthy and afloat.

 

And so, when Cinemark needs to decide on the "big movie" or two per month to appeal to different parts of their base plan, they probably want 55% revenue retention on hybrid movies vs whatever Disney is asking for (aka letting them keep)...so, they booked WB (who only takes 45%), but so far, not Disney...

Maybe. Cinemark is the only one of the big chains to not have reports about turmoil on some level during all of this.

 

There's also a possible chance they're ticked off at Disney for both Mulan and Soul skipping theaters completely and are now passing on some titles as a sort of "we don't need you at the moment" statement. Wouldn't be surprised if AMC feels the same way but King Mickey probably has them wrapped around his fingers via the Disney Springs location (arguably the #1 place to see a Disney movie in the whole country).

[Eric Duncan]

Didn't have time to mention this, but yesterday Raya showtimes did pop up at the AMCs around me. And there's even some Thursday previews. A rarity! Maybe I'll track it, maybe I won't. Who knows?

[Legion Again]

Man, imagine getting a Thursday preview reported.

[charlie Jatinder]

Can we give this thing another shot with Raya?

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, jatvision said:

Can we give this thing another shot with Raya?

Any T&J numbers?

[filmlover]

14 hours ago, jatvision said:

Can we give this thing another shot with Raya?

Probably wouldn't be of much help when it's looking to play at only one (AMC) of the major chains.

[Eric Duncan]

On 2/27/2021 at 10:27 PM, jatvision said:

Can we give this thing another shot with Raya?

 

[Eric Duncan]

Boogie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thursday + Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	24	61	1128	5.41%

 

 

So yeah, because I have no idea when/if previews will be reported, I split things up into two camps. One solely on Thursday, the other Thursday and Friday. I'm only going to post the latter because I'm assuming we won't get Thursday numbers on their own for a while. If we get to a point where this is unnecessary I might drop it, though with WB ignoring Thursday previews entirely due to the HBO Max deal, who knows? Just don't pester me about it.

 

Also while I did do some pandemic reporting in August, I deleted those and am ignoring them completely, mainly because these new reports have some new theaters added into the pool and I believe capacity is different anyways, though I don't exactly remember. So don't bother comparing it with stuff like New Mutants or whatever, because it is fruitless and has zero value.

 

And as you might expect, I have no comps to pull from with these movies, so I'm going in completely blind here. You can draw your own conclusions, but know it is incredibly shaky stuff and I'm only posting these for posterity's sake and for future comps. So if you're going to be a dick and act as if you know everything because of random data points, I hope you stub your toe.

 

Got it? Good.

[Eric Duncan]

Chaos Walking Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thursday + Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	31	85	1957	4.34%

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

Raya and the Last Dragon Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thursday + Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	126	2314	5.45%