The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

Last year this thread had 990 pages added. Who would have thought in January 2020 that we are not gonna cross 2000. 

[XXR vs XXR]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-12/vaccine-d-day-arrives-with-2-9-million-doses-set-for-delivery?

 

Operation Warp Speed aims to have enough doses to inoculate 20 million Americans by the end of December, 50 million by the end of January, and 100 million total by the end of March. Alex Azar, the U.S. Health and Human Services Department chief, has said there will be enough supply for any American who wants a vaccine by the end of the third quarter of 2021.

 

Seems like relevant info for tracking the domestic market. Looks like things should be good enough by the time Black Widow opens that most places should be able to open. This says nothing of how people will feel about being in crowds again, but only time will tell that. 

 

[cax16]

20 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-12/vaccine-d-day-arrives-with-2-9-million-doses-set-for-delivery?

 

Operation Warp Speed aims to have enough doses to inoculate 20 million Americans by the end of December, 50 million by the end of January, and 100 million total by the end of March. Alex Azar, the U.S. Health and Human Services Department chief, has said there will be enough supply for any American who wants a vaccine by the end of the third quarter of 2021.

 

Seems like relevant info for tracking the domestic market. Looks like things should be good enough by the time Black Widow opens that most places should be able to open. This says nothing of how people will feel about being in crowds again, but only time will tell that. 

 

That’s pretty amazing if they have 100m done by end of March. Hopefully it happens. 

[Legion Again]

Pretty weird to do 30 in Jan then just 50 in Feb+March. Gotta figure the former will come down or the latter will come up.

[Jamiem]

4 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Pretty weird to do 30 in Jan then just 50 in Feb+March. Gotta figure the former will come down or the latter will come up.

Could be a couple of things, 2nd shot is 3 weeks after the first so there would be more shots even though some people would be getting a second shot agree than a first. 
 

Or international distribution of the vaccine will ramp up in Feb/March thus less available for the US. Can’t think of too many other reasons there would be a drop in supply. 

 

 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Jamiem

[keysersoze123]

On 12/11/2020 at 1:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Wonder Woman 1984 12/25

MTC1 - 11358/195428 109983.00 936  shows

MTC2 -  17829/307888 185655.07  1960 shows

 

Numbers are really good. Multiple sellouts at AMC Disney (Orlando) where its sell out at 1/3rd tickets sold. 

Wonder Woman 1984 12/25

MTC1 - 24155/276615 220442.00 1322 shows

MTC2 - 30973/318767 323439.38 2045 shows

 

its selling few tickets for sure. This does not include private watch shows as they are not reserved tickets. I can see there are several sellouts among those but they are only maximum 20 patrons per show. Dont think that will make a huge difference to overall BO. 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/12/2020 at 6:43 PM, Jamiem said:

Could be a couple of things, 2nd shot is 3 weeks after the first so there would be more shots even though some people would be getting a second shot agree than a first. 
 

Or international distribution of the vaccine will ramp up in Feb/March thus less available for the US. Can’t think of too many other reasons there would be a drop in supply. 

 

 

I am hoping Biden administration will be more aggressive with its rollout. I am hoping anyone who wants to be vaccinated should have the option. Then I am hoping this number can go up a lot. There will be anti-vaxxers who will not help spreading rumors about vaccine killing folks !!!

[charlie Jatinder]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonder Woman 1984 12/25

MTC1 - 24155/276615 220442.00 1322 shows

MTC2 - 30973/318767 323439.38 2045 shows

So in 5 days time, MTC 1 almost doubled while MTC 2 also increased ~75%.  May be 3x or 4x by 25th. Prob MTC 1 & MTC 2 $750-850k each. 

 

Say 2x PSm, that will give MTC 1 & 2 of $3.2mn. $4.5mn NA OD is possible perhaps. That will be good. May be $14-16mn weekend.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So in 5 days time, MTC 1 almost doubled while MTC 2 also increased ~75%.  May be 3x or 4x by 25th. Prob MTC 1 & MTC 2 $750-850k each. 

 

Say 2x PSm, that will give MTC 1 & 2 of $3.2mn. $4.5mn NA OD is possible perhaps. That will be good. May be $14-16mn weekend.

 

 

I will try look at PS beyond OD but it will skew heavy as christmas will be the biggest BO day for this. Plus more folks would see in HBO Max which will kill its BO for sure. 

[excel1]

$10m+ opening day.

[charlie Jatinder]

54 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I will try look at PS beyond OD but it will skew heavy as christmas will be the biggest BO day for this. Plus more folks would see in HBO Max which will kill its BO for sure. 

Isn't boxing day supposed to be bigger.

 

But yeah may be HBO release hamper regular trend.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

A Week out

On 8/25/2020 at 12:37 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Tenet Early Access Aug 31

MTC1 - 9277/107952 ~130K (511 shows) +1344

MTC2 - 6932/132338 ~88.3K (864 shows) +1027

Final pre-sales

On 8/31/2020 at 10:41 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Quick update on release day morning. Hoping it increases 80-100% from these with walk ups. 

 

Tenet Early Access 8/31

MTC1 - 16991/140565 226.3K (764 shows) +1857

MTC2 -  14519/149330 181.2K (1085 shows) +1644

Actual sneaks. There were hardly any walk-ins for sneaks.

On 9/1/2020 at 10:17 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Definitely the small capacities limited walk ups. 

Tenet Early Access 8/31 (Final)

MTC1 - 21076/149489 $271.24K  (842 shows) +4085

MTC2 - 20724/163562  $251.45K (1260 shows) +6205

 

A week out TENET sneaks were $220k in 2 MTCs, but we had MTC 3 open as well, which would have taken 3 of them around $350k. So overall PS for sneaks was perhaps around $550k.

 

WW84 is currently $545k in 2 MTCs, 3 MTCs will be perhaps $550-560k. Overall PS around $800-850k. That's about 50% ahead TENET at same time.

 

PS for TENET only doubled in last week and then PSm was very low. WW84 should be better than that.

[cax16]

 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/17/2020 at 4:51 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Wonder Woman 1984 12/25

MTC1 - 24155/276615 220442.00 1322 shows

MTC2 - 30973/318767 323439.38 2045 shows

 

its selling few tickets for sure. This does not include private watch shows as they are not reserved tickets. I can see there are several sellouts among those but they are only maximum 20 patrons per show. Dont think that will make a huge difference to overall BO. 

Wonder Woman 1984

12/25

MTC1 - 44203/339370 380622.00 1646 shows

MTC2 - 47281/331716 490690.87 2142 shows

 

12/26

MTC1 - 15771/329112 136559.00 1595 shows

MTC2 - 16791/341532 170091.53 2209 shows

 

So day 2 is only 35% of OD PS. But OD PS is doing very well. This does not include private watch shows. 

[charlie Jatinder]

So about $1.35mn OD PS.

Saturday about $500k Approx.

Rest would be around $500k too I guess, so that matches pretty well with that $4.3mn figure, with 50% being private screenings.

 

The final numbers can be, may be close to double. So about $2.5mn final PS + say around same private screenings. We could have a good OD in our hands of around $6-7mn perhaps.

Edited December 22, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

On 12/21/2020 at 4:32 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Wonder Woman 1984

12/25

MTC1 - 44203/339370 380622.00 1646 shows

MTC2 - 47281/331716 490690.87 2142 shows

 

12/26

MTC1 - 15771/329112 136559.00 1595 shows

MTC2 - 16791/341532 170091.53 2209 shows

 

So day 2 is only 35% of OD PS. But OD PS is doing very well. This does not include private watch shows. 

Data as of this morning

Wonder Woman 1984

12/25

MTC1 - 91155/415981 711334.00 2217 shows

MTC2 - 88276/361085 896007.49 2394 shows

 

12/26

MTC1 - 29696/392803 245009.00 2000 shows

MTC2 - 32344/365452 321516.31 2406 shows

 

Heavily skewed towards OD sales. Let us see where it ends tonight. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonder Woman 1984

12/25

MTC1 - 91155/415981 711334.00 2217 shows

MTC2 - 88276/361085 896007.49 2394 shows

$3mn OD PS. I guess same private screens. May be 2x PSm, $8-10mn OD.

 

Near 25% occupancy. ✌🏼️

Edited December 26, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[meridan]

What are the realistic predictions for the numbers Fri-Sun? Deadline 2 days ago estimated around $10M for the weekend. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, meridan said:

What are the realistic predictions for the numbers Fri-Sun? Deadline 2 days ago estimated around $10M for the weekend. 

Pessimistically maybe it began today with 3M normal tickets, 2M private showing, and had a low PSm to end with 5M normal, 2M private, for 7M. Then something like 5.5M Sat and 3.5M Sun for 16M.

 

Optimistically today started 3+3, ends at like 7+3 for 10, Sat at like 8M, Sun 5.5M, 24iah weekend.   
 

Unless something really strange happens. Keyser should be by in  a bit to let us know how the day went.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$3mn OD PS. I guess same private screens. May be 2x PSm, $8-10mn OD.

 

Near 25% occupancy. ✌🏼️

Not possible as its very PS heavy with limited walkups possible.

 

Wonder Woman 1984 12/25

MTC1 - 109178/421216 868285.00 2269 shows

MTC2 - 104708/364867 1067404.94 2440 shows