The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 6/30/2021 at 8:49 AM, Menor said:

Black Widow MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 3037 (+90)

Tickets Sold: 51187/455399 (+3630)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 5044

Tickets Sold: 34658/780475 (+3053)

 

Pace is well ahead of F9 at the same point, for both Thursday and Friday. 

Black Widow MTC2

Thursday:

Showtimes: 3068 (+31)

Tickets Sold: 54888/458026 (+3701)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 5047 (+3)

Tickets Sold: 38175/781317 (+3517)

 

This is from last night.

 

Thursday is ~2.5x F9 at the same point.

 

Friday is ~1.8x F9 at the same point. 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Menor

[WrathOfHan]

Preview update:

 

The Boss Baby: Family Business:

4:00: 12/107 (+4)

6:45: 2/107 (-1)

Total: 14/214 (+3)

 

The Forever Purge:

7:00: 14/107 (+8)

9:00: 7/77 (+7)

Total: 21/184 (+15)

 

Comps:

 

Boss Baby:

 

44% of Cruella Previews (615k)

127% of Peter Rabbit 2 Previews (1.1M)

 

The Peter Rabbit comp should be the more suitable one. The holiday might boost it a little, but sub-15M feels really disappointing given @Shawn's range was 15-35M. 

 

Purge:

 

11% of AQP2 Previews (530k)

26% of Conjuring 3 Friday the day before (2.5M)

75% of Spiral Previews (560k)

 

Anything higher than 6M for the weekend would be a win. What a fall for this franchise.

Edited July 1, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Preview update:

 

The Boss Baby: Family Business:

4:00: 12/107 (+4)

6:45: 2/107 (-1)

Total: 14/214 (+3)

 

The Forever Purge:

7:00: 14/107 (+8)

9:00: 7/77 (+7)

Total: 21/184 (+15)

 

Comps:

 

Boss Baby:

 

44% of Cruella Previews (615k)

127% of Peter Rabbit 2 Previews (1.1M)

 

The Peter Rabbit comp should be the more suitable one. The holiday might boost it a little, but sub-15M feels really disappointing given @Shawn's range was 15-35M. 

 

Purge:

 

11% of AQP2 Previews (530k)

26% of Conjuring 3 Friday the day before (2.5M)

75% of Spiral Previews (560k)

 

Anything higher than 6M for the weekend would be a win. What a fall for this franchise.

not suprised for boss baby, imo it was bound to decline anyway and the marketing was almost non existanced

[Eric Loves Rey]

The first Boss Baby only made the money it did because Alec Baldwin and Donald Trump were the two most-talked about figures by the time the movie came out. In a Biden timeline, the film's main joke has little meaning or relevance.

[keysersoze123]

 

Black Widow Previews(T-7)

MTC1 - 86623/542525 1293272.00 2937 shows

 

I dont have F9 T-7 but look at T-5 data Black widow is about 2.7-2.8x the PS of F9(Extrapolating next 2 days sales). it sold tad under 6K tickets over past 24 hours(I did not post the number here). 

 

F9(T-5)

MTC1 - 36039/400144 524863.00 2215 shows(428 Theatres)

[charlie Jatinder]

39 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

The first Boss Baby only made the money it did because Alec Baldwin and Donald Trump were the two most-talked about figures by the time the movie came out. In a Biden timeline, the film's main joke has little meaning or relevance.

The baby was cute. Was also a breakout in India. Very small though.

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I understand your concern @Porthos.

 

First off, I looked back, and yes your coverage increased a lot from even 2nd quarter of 2019 to end of 2019. TRoS sold 19.5K tickets overall, but adjusted for theaters tracked for TLK was just 18.5K. So 1K+ worth tickets were sold in extra theaters. Wonder how many more you added since then.

 

Second, though F9 is franchise which sells well outside major chains/cities but when you go bigger in numbers, share of major cities/chain reduces. So a $60M EG sell only 26.5K tickets in Sacramento while a $20M (34.5%) CM was 10.5K (40%)  or $23M (38%) TLK was 11K (41.5%) or $5.8M (9.6%) H&S was 3.1K (11.7%). Point being, something opening $15M plus will be better comp for something opening $15M plus than $7M.

 

Third, I was wrong in saying 10K will be equivalent of $20M. 10k will be more like $17.5M basing off Captain Marvel. Unless your coverage even more since TROS, then it will drop even more.

 

Fourth, Previews have always been MTC 1 and 2 heavy. e.g. for EG MTC1 and 2 were 41% of previews while for Friday they were 34%. Pre CoVID films do go for 45-50% for previews in MTC 1 and 2. For F9, previews were 50% while Friday was 37%.

 

The good news is that the last holdout cleaned up its act overnight, so every seatmap I now have access to is clean and pure. 👍

 

As for extra sources of tracking since TROS, I have two.  Well, three if we want to be technical.  One is a relatively low-trafficked theater which still sold 98 total tickets for F9.  Inconsequential overall, but still figures to be more for BW (BW has already sold 63 tickets at that location, and we're not even into the main expansion phase of ticket selling).

 

The bigger source of new tracking is me finally deciding that, yes, I really should be covering the DBOX seating at the two theaters in the region that have them.  I long ignored it, partially because I started all of this in the mists of time as a sellout track and not a seat track, and, frankly, who gives a shit about how many DBOX showings get sold out?  Not I then and not I now.  When I started to convert to a seat level track with Black Panther, I just reckoned that DBOX seating was small enough not to bother with and that the proportions would be similar enough from genre-to-genre that it could be safely ignored. 

 

Now though, I've changed my thinking on this.  2021 provided an opportunity to have a "restart"/"fresh start" as it were, and sometimes DBOX showings didn't sell out for bigger blockbusters, so why not start to track them?  Probs should have started with GvK, but as I said my thinking kinda sorta evolved this year and F9 looked like the perfect time to jump into the water. 

 

Now one minor wrinkle is that one of the Cinema West theaters has some DBOX seats available (because of course it did), but that is a super minor tweak on an adjustment between BW and F9 and one I ain't sweating at all.  Does mean more tickets sold though.

 

For example, F9 sold 84 DBOX tickets at the four showings it had at Century Laguna.  To compare, BW has already sold 68 DBOX seats at that theater, plus another 17 seats at Cinema West Palladio.  Probably will be more showings added at Palladio, ftr.

 

Anywho, the good news, as I said, is I can now easily make like-for-like comps against pre-2020 films, even though I don't think they're worth all that much.

 

I'll go ahead and treat the sales I just pulled up at that last misbehaving theater as sales from last night as I truly doubt many tickets were sold before 9:30am my time.

 

(more in a post coming up)

[Porthos]

@charlie Jatinder

 

Since you are particularly interested in Captain Marvel as a comp:

 

At T-8, Captain Marvel had sold 4,494 tickets (out of 8,399 seats available to be tracked).

At T-8, Black Widow at the equivalent theaters had sold 3,439 tickets (out of 18,849 seats available to be tracked*).  

* There are a lot more showings already set aside for BW than there were at this time of pre-sales for CM. 

 

That's 224 tickets removed from Black Widow's current total, or about 6%.  On a pure comp, BW is at 76.5% of CM's T-8 total, which would be 15.84m.

 

That does include a brand new theatre that opened just before Endgame debuted, however.  Adjusting for new theaters is always a little tricky, as it could go either way.  I personally usually don't adjust for there being a new theater, but if I did, then the comp comes down even further to 74.7% of CM's T-8 total which would be 15.47m (I removed 81 tickets for this comparison, for the record).

 

BUT!!!!

 

But Captain Marvel had a full month's more of pre-sales so of course it should have had more tickets in the bank, which makes a T-8 comp slightly misleading.

 

On the other hand, that's presuming a perfect 2019 comp world, and, well....

 

Anyway, yes I have added quite a few ticket sources since the beginning of 2019:

 

Cinema West Country Club Plaza [opened just before Endgame premiered]

Century Roseville [all non-PLF showings can now be tracked as of the middle of the track of It 2]

Century Folsom [converted to reserved seating during the pandemic, first started tracking with Godzilla vs Kong]

Century Laguna DBOX showings [started with F9's track]

Cinema West Palladio DBOX showings [started with F9's track, removed when seat maps became unreliable, re-added to BW's track just now]

 

Some of those sell better than others, but do add up.

 

If you want T-8 adjusted comps with other big pre-2020 films, go ahead and ask, as I now can make them at a level I feel comfortable with.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Porthos
Edited in correct CM comp [used 20.6 instead of 20.7 by mistake]

[charlie Jatinder]

IMO New theater shouldn't be adjusted because it is gonna take traffic from other existing theaters. Yeah if there was some already existing theater which you didn't tracked earlier and now do, that should be adjusted.

 

So,

36 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

That's 224 tickets removed from Black Widow's current total, or about 6%.  On a pure comp, BW is at 76.5% of CM's T-8 total, which would be 15.84m.

Looking forward to see this more in next 7 days. Though will remove 5% of missing Canada or some other city in USA, which may have lost its lone theater, giving $15M currently.

 

I am hoping for $18M, let's see. 

[el sid]

The Boss Baby 2, counted today at 11am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): - (still no showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 18 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 19 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 18 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 9 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 51 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 75 (8 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 190.

Up 36% since yesterday.
Comps: Dolittle (21.8M) had on Thursday in the same 6 theaters 305 sold tickets for Friday.
I have no Peter Rabbit 2 Thursday numbers but this movie had so low presales in my theaters that it wouldn't be a good comp anyway I guess.
The Call of the Wild (24.8M OW) had in the same 5 theaters (no San Francisco shows, therefor in NY) 132 sold tickets (so vs 139 here).
So around 15M+ maybe?

The Forever Purge, counted today at 11am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 63 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 17 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 19 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 27 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 101 (6 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 241.

Up 44% since yesterday.
Comps (always from the same day = Thursday): The Conjuring 3 (24.1M OW) had in the same 7 theaters 1.435 sold tickets for Friday.
AQP II (47.5M OW) had in the same 7 theaters 1.582 sold tickets for Thursday.
Crawl (12.0M OW) had in the same 7 theaters 328 sold tickets for Thursday.
The Boy II (5.8M OW) had in 6 theaters (no shows in the AMC Lakeline) 133 sold tickets (so vs 237 here) for Thursday.
Scary Stories (20.9M OW) had in the same 7 theaters 883 sold tickets for Thursday.
The Invisible Man (28.2M OW) had in the same 7 theaters 927 sold tickets for Thursday.
And Countdown (8.9M OW) had in 6 theaters (no shows in the AMC Fresh Meadows) 197 sold tickets (so vs 178 here) for Thursday. 
The today's jump of TFP wasn't bad, it's only that other smaller horror films had around the same jumps or better from Wednesday to Thursday. The walk-ups must help, definitely, because from presales only it looks indeed like a sub-10M OW.

I'm on vacation for one or two weeks (starting Saturday) and it's in the mountains which means the internet connection is very bad and I can't count. But the reports for BW are so precisely done by several members here that mine are not needed anyway.
I will again track Old, Snake Eyes and so on .

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

444

1980

22.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

459

1939

23.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2189	142	24048	9.10%	15	132

 

Showings added: 17

Seats added: 2669

 

F9 comp: 22.89M

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

473

1980

23.89%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

477

1939

24.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2360	171	24647	9.58%	15	135

 

Showings added: 3

Seats added: 599

 

F9 comp: 23.40M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/30/2021 at 1:47 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-8 days Thursday(89 showings): 2677(+176)/24874(+3435) in 14 theaters. $37,478 with $14 ATP

 

T-9 days Friday(102 showings): 1972(+181)/36855(+485) in 14 theaters. $26,622 with $13.50 ATP

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-7 days Thursday(91 showings): 2839(+162)/25346(+472) in 14 theaters. $39,746 with $14 ATP

 

T-8 days Friday(102 showings): 2209(+237)/36855 in 14 theaters. $29,822 with $13.50 ATP

 

Thursday is 4.16x Fast 9 at the same point; Friday is 2.62x Fast 9 at the same point

 

Fast 9 was underperforming/just don't do as well at Megaplexs, so this isn't really surprising. Plus Marvel movies perform really well here

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Black Widow Previews(T-7)

MTC1 - 86623/542525 1293272.00 2937 shows

 

I dont have F9 T-7 but look at T-5 data Black widow is about 2.7-2.8x the PS of F9(Extrapolating next 2 days sales). it sold tad under 6K tickets over past 24 hours(I did not post the number here). 

 

F9(T-5)

MTC1 - 36039/400144 524863.00 2215 shows(428 Theatres)

Black Widow OD(T-8)

MTC1 - 65819/796509 897305.00 3983 shows.

 

So its roughly around 75% of preview sales. Pace looking at past 24 hours is at 90% of preview sales.  I dont think i have any comparison with F9 but F9 finished at 140K PS for OD and finished OD at 371277/1120376 4207522.00 6500 shows for its friday BO. 

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
The Boss Baby 2	T-0	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	66	12	2.41%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	61	34	2.38%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,794	132	38	7.36%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	65	7,088	259	84	3.65%

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
The Boss Baby 2	Late	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	132	66	4.82%
		Phoenix	6	21	2,599	115	54	4.42%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,794	209	77	11.65%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	66	7,129	456	197	6.40%

 

Pulled at 3:30pm EST.  Pretty good sales today for previews.  Unfortunately I wasn't able to do this for PR2, but it should be helpful for comps going forward.  

 

6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
The Forever Purge	T-0	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	60	27	3.03%
		Phoenix	7	17	1,781	84	41	4.72%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,267	78	19	6.16%
The Forever Purge Total			19	43	5,026	222	87	4.42%

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
The Forever Purge	Late	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	127	67	6.42%
		Phoenix	7	17	1,781	133	49	7.47%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,267	142	64	11.21%
The Forever Purge Total			19	43	5,026	402	180	8.00%

 

Pulled at 5pm EST.  Pretty similar same day sales numbers between the two, with BB2 still leading the way.

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Box Office Report predictions:

F9- 27m (-61%)

Boss Baby- 16.5m

Purge- 11.7m

 

Box Office Pro predictions:

F9- 25m (-64%)

Boss Baby- 16.3m

Purge- 9.6m

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow OD(T-8)

MTC1 - 65819/796509 897305.00 3983 shows.

 

So its roughly around 75% of preview sales. Pace looking at past 24 hours is at 90% of preview sales.  I dont think i have any comparison with F9 but F9 finished at 140K PS for OD and finished OD at 371277/1120376 4207522.00 6500 shows for its friday BO. 

 

 

T-5 OD for F9 was 42k. This will probably be 85-90K by then, so 2-2.15x. The gross is even more since ATP of BW is higher. Great.

 

Need this ratio to be maintained though. Hopefully 250K+ final pre-sales and 500K final day. 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

9 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

The first Boss Baby only made the money it did because Alec Baldwin and Donald Trump were the two most-talked about figures by the time the movie came out. In a Biden timeline, the film's main joke has little meaning or relevance.

I really don't think the little kids the movie was intended for cared much about Trump or Baldwin.

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

The Boss Baby: Family Business Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	269	6280	4.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 90

 

Comp

0.624x of Raya's Thu+Fri T-1 and Counting (1.62M)

0.337x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-1 and Counting (2.60M)

0.915x of Spirit Untamed's Thu+Fri T-1 and Counting (2.25M)

The Boss Baby: Family Business Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	764	6280	12.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 495

 

Comp

1.278x of Raya's Thu+Fri (3.32M)

1.868x of Cruella's Thu Previews (2.61M)

0.600x of Cruella's Thu+Fri (4.62M)

1.764x of Spirit Untamed's Thu+Fri (4.34M)

 

So I should preface here by saying I kind of cheated on this one. I try to stop counting previews when the first showings hit and try to tally up all the preview showings immediately afterwards. But sadly, I only got halfway through tallying before I had to go commute back home, so that sadly means I counted later showings, like 6 or 7, closer to when they would start, meaning later numbers are a touch inflated. This does partially explain why there was such an astronomical boost, but even the 4:00/5:00 showings did really well at the last minute. Maybe walkups are just really, really strong here, who knows? Doubt the preview numbers will be anywhere near as big as this though.

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

The Forever Purge Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	149	3588	4.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 57

 

Comp

0.099x of Conjuring 3 1 Day Before Release (967K)

0.745x of Hitman's Bodyguard's Wife T-1 Before Release (2.93M)

The Forever Purge Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	732	3588	20.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 583

 

Comp

0.372x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu Previews (1.79M)

0.285x of Conjuring 3's Final Count (2.80M)

1.413x of Hitman's Bodyguard's Wife's Final Count (5.56M)

 

Now this had previews starting at 7, so I tallied everything together. I mean I guess it could be walkups, but it still seems like a disturbingly high jump for both movies compared to what everybody else got. F9 had stupid huge walkups too, so maybe Philly's just...getting more presales driven? I dunno, it's very weird stuff.

[DAJK]

Boss Baby did surprisingly well here tonight, but today is Canada day so take wgat I say with a grain of salt