The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Looking ahead, Escape Room 2 tickets go on sale tomorrow.   Space Jam is already on sale but I don't see any Thursday showings; is it not doing previews?

 

In case anyone cares, they went on sale today, as showtimes were up last night but not yet for sale, so for those who might track it, it will be Day One sales.

 

*checks*

 

Looks like a couple of hours ago:

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

Unrelated, but holy shit, that clip is the most depressing, awful thing I've seen come out of Hollywood all year. This movie is going to be so bad.

[poweranimals]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Unrelated, but holy shit, that clip is the most depressing, awful thing I've seen come out of Hollywood all year. This movie is going to be so bad.

I actually enjoyed that. 😶

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

428

1980

21.62%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

429

1939

22.12%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2047	129	21379	9.57%	15	115

 

Showings removed: 1

Seats removed: 232

 

F9 comp: 22.96M

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

444

1980

22.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

459

1939

23.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2189	142	24048	9.10%	15	132

 

Showings added: 17

Seats added: 2669

 

F9 comp: 22.89M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-9 days Thursday: 2501(+162)/21439 in 14 theaters. $35,014 with $14 ATP

 

T-10 days Friday: 1791(+165)/36370 in 14 theaters. $24,179 with $13.50 ATP

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-8 days Thursday(89 showings): 2677(+176)/24874(+3435) in 14 theaters. $37,478 with $14 ATP

 

T-9 days Friday(102 showings): 1972(+181)/36855(+485) in 14 theaters. $26,622 with $13.50 ATP

[Ezen Baklattan]

The Boss Baby: Family Business
Tracking Date	Showtime Date	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
6/30/2021	7/1/2021	0	8	77	885	8.70%
6/30/2021	7/2/2021	0	14	190	1487	12.78%
The Forever Purge
Tracking Date	Showtime Date	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
6/30/2021	6/3/2021	0	5	23	375	6.13%
6/30/2021	6/4/2021	0	4	11	400	2.75%

 

 

BB2 is performing fairly similarly to Peter Rabbit. Its Thursday previews are lower, but Friday is higher. The sum of both days is about 14% higher than Peter Rabbit., and 90% higher than Spirit. Both would suggest a weekend around $11-12m, but I think it can go a bit higher.

 

Purge, though...is at 10% of the Conjuring. It'll obviously do better but yeah, don't expect anything close to a breakout with these numbers.

 

 

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

The Boss Baby: Family Business Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	179	6280	2.85%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 10

Total Seats Added Today: 1,220

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

 

Comp

0.551x of Raya's Thu+Fri T-2 and Counting (1.43M)

0.330x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-2 and Counting (2.54M)

0.865x of Spirit Untamed's Thu+Fri T-2 and Counting (2.12M)

 

So obviously things are hard to track bc I'm only looking at one day for Boss Baby and two days for the others, and this isn't a movie that would have a strong Thursday anyways. But this jump is a real rough one. But hey, still two more days left of action

The Boss Baby: Family Business Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	269	6280	4.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 90

 

Comp

0.624x of Raya's Thu+Fri T-1 and Counting (1.62M)

0.337x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-1 and Counting (2.60M)

0.915x of Spirit Untamed's Thu+Fri T-1 and Counting (2.25M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

The Forever Purge Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	92	3588	2.56%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 7

Total Seats Added Today: 823

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

0.091x of Conjuring 3 2 Days Before Release (896K)

The Forever Purge Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	149	3588	4.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 57

 

Comp

0.099x of Conjuring 3 1 Day Before Release (967K)

0.745x of Hitman's Bodyguard's Wife T-1 Before Release (2.93M)

[Porthos]

On 6/29/2021 at 10:59 PM, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	122	16185	19264*	3079	15.98%

*NOTE: A theater adjusted its seat maps tonight, resulting in four more seats being available region wide.

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	n/a*
Total Seats Sold Today	171

*NOTE:  All three showings added today were at non-reserved seating theaters.

 

T-9 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	251.76		81	1223		0/80	11347/12570	9.73%		17.87m

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	416.16		72	724		3/79	2506/3230	22.41%		19.98m
BW (adj)	---		161	3013		0/122	16131/19144	15.74%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	151	19486	22959	3473	15.13%

 

Cinema West Showings Reintegrated Today	19
Total Seats Reintegrated Today	2497
Total Seats Sold Reintegrated Today	190

 

Total Showings Added At All Other Locations Today	10
Total Seats Added At All Other Locations Today	1198
Total Seats Sold At All Other Locations Today	204

 

Total Net Seats Sold Added To Count

394

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	248.15		100	1323		0/84	11791/13114	10.09%		17.62m
BW (F9 adj)	---		204	3283		0/132	17179/20462	16.04%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	425.63		67	800		2/83	2687/3487	22.94%		20.43m
BW (adj)	---		202	3405		0/151	19434/22839	14.91%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the seat maps have been removed from the one theater which still has unreliable data.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

===

 

Two more Cinema West theaters were able to be verified today, as they eliminated social districting restrictions.  I fully expect the last holdout to get rid of their distancing requirements in the next day or two (I actually reckon that they just haven't updated their computers yet at that one holdout).

 

As for how that affected the AQP II comp?  Made it rise very slightly, even though the day-to-day comp would have pointed to a continued decline, as BW is selling better at those two theaters than AQP II had done at this point in time.  

Edited July 1, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Great. Beating CM daily again. 

 

@Porthos so how does cinema west chain impact daily numbers? When did you removed the chain initially?

 

Edit: Realised that Cinema West weren't tracking stopped with AQP2 itself so shouldn't have any impact on BW. right?

 

I am thinking to proportionately add 190 seats to daily numbers to maintain trend.

Spoiler

Days	Reported	Cinema West (Re. 2)	Cinema West (Re. 1)	Total
27	1089	63	6	1158
26	224	13	1	238
25	185	11	1	197
24	105	6	1	112
23	95	5	1	101
22	73	4		77
21	94	5	1	100
20	77	4		81
19	61	4		65
18	81	5		86
17	94	5		99
16	84	5		89
15	108	6		114
14	106	6		112
13	77	4		81
12	94	5		99
11	108	6		114
10	142	8		150
9	171	10		181
8	204	12		216

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 

@Porthos so how does cinema west chain impact daily numbers? When did you removed the chain initially?

 

Ironically enough. At the exact beginning of BW's track:

 

 

As for "how does it impact the daily numbers"?  I'm not entirely sure what you mean by that.  Once the last hold out comes online, I can do a near pure like for like comp against AQP II's daily numbers (only subtracting the DBOX numbers that I am compiling for BW) as I had accurate seat maps for the entirety of AQP II's run.  If I though it had any value, I could also have that same near pure comp against GvK.  But I think the theater landscape has shifted far too much between April and now forit to be of much use (plus there were a ton of theaters still closed locally).

 

Furthermore, once that last CW holdout fixes itself, if I thought even a single pre-2020 film was worth using right now, I could more easily comp against pre-2020 films with only some minor adjustments here and there to get a more varied set of comps.  Alas and alack, I don't think a single comp I have from pre-2020 is worth anything right now.  Emphasis on right now.

 

Does mean there will be a higher set of daily numbers than I had for F9.  But that's why I'm adjusting the BW numbers in one of my comp blocks to make an exact like-for-like comp against F9.

 

If that's not what you meant?  Well, it'll go up is the simpler answer, as I have more theaters to track.   Especially since one of the theaters that I added today is in the "A tier" of theaters locally as it sells quite a bit of tickets, especially for blockbuster movies.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

@charlie Jatinder

 

Another way to put it is this:

 

BW has been selling tickets for 19 days.  I just added 190 "extra" tickets to the total.  That's an average of 10 extra tickets a day so far.  But that's only for these two theaters, as I have one more still out there to be accounted for.  Since we're about to hit the accelerator on ticket sales, that means the number of tickets per day that those two theaters (soon to be three) will be adding to the total will be much more than 10 per day.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Since BW is beating CM daily numbers in Sacramento from last few days, wonder if it can continue doing that.

 

CM in its last 8 days added 6059 seats, say BW add 6500 more, it will hit 10K. Any shortfall may be filled by the remaining Cinema West cinemas.

We now have only 40% of Canada missing as per Deadline, so DOM box office should be 95% capacity now. Yeah number of theaters open are just 80% but that doesn't really matter as majority of them will be smaller/independent chains, whose traffic will shift to one's which are open. 

 

Now I know @Porthos added a lot of tracking coverage during 2019, so donno if CM 10500 was whole of Sacramento or there were some theaters missing which Porthos started tracking for later films. The last big film was TROS, I suppose during final 3-4 days that can be used for comp. Or even TLK say. 

 

TLK had 10,977 admits and lead to $23.5M. Adjust 5% for missing territories, that will be $22M Approx. So a 10K admits in Sacramento should be giving $20M previews. Right?

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Another way to put it is this:

 

BW has been selling tickets for 19 days.  I just added 190 "extra" tickets to the total.  That's an average of 10 extra tickets a day so far.

IDK if you saw the spoiler above. I proportioned the 190 seats to the reported daily data. So day 1 which you reported at 1089, must have added around 63 seats. (1089/3272 * 190). 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So a 10K admits in Sacramento should be giving $20M previews. Right?

 

No.  Not in my opinion.  Frankly, I think it needs about 9,500 tickets locally when adjusted for F9 (i.e. not the new Cinema West theaters coming back) just to reach 15.5m.

 

Look at F9.  Everything you said about BW's theater spread should be more or less the same for F9, right?  After all the relevant adjustments were made, a 95% comp of both Hobbs & Shaw and John Wick 3 (which were probably the two closest comps I had to F9) suggested 8.7m to 8.8m.

 

F9 didn't come remotely close to that number.  

 

If I compared F9 to AQP II and added 5% though (to account for a month's worth of theater recovery)?  7.1 million on the nose:

 

On 6/24/2021 at 6:36 PM, Porthos said:

If I adjust the Wick 3/H&S comp downward by 5%, I get 8.7m-8.8m.  If I adjust AQP II up by 5%, I get 7.1m.  If I adjust each by 10% up and down, I get 8.2m-8.3m and 7.4m respectively.

 

 

That tells me that any and all Sacramento comps from before 2020 are nearly worthless, even after I adjust for the new sources of tracking info. I mean, I wish they weren't. Maybe they won't be one day.  And with the benefit of hindsight, I can figure out what that percentage is.  But the discouraging thing?  I can't guess ahead of time.  That's one reason I "blew" the projection for F9 so badly.  In part I over estimated how much theater recovery had happened (I also put too much weight into the MTC tracking, but that's on me).

 

Another part of it might be that for whatever reason (and we've discussed it a bit in the thread) MTCs are more heavy on previews right now than they used to be, and Sacto is a pretty MTC heavy market.

 

And none of that gets into the extra sources of tracking info that have been added bit by bit (this post is waaaaaaay too long as it is, so I'll save that for tomorrow/another time [can't give exact comps anyway due to that one missing theater].

 

===

 

Now maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe even two weeks is enough time between F9 and BW to have more recovery in the market.    But I don't think we're at 95% of 2019.  I just don't see it. At least not when it comes to preview night.  When ThFSS is taken in total? Maaaaaaaaybe, though I'd be more comfortable with 85% to 90%.  And maybe the first Marvel movie in over two years will be enough to get the smaller chains to move heaven and earth to get the ratio back up. Or maybe there's been another dose of recovery between F9 and BW (chains dropping social distancing at the end of June, for example).  

 

But not enough recovery to get to 95% of what it used to be, no.  I'm prepared to be very wrong on this, BTW.  But, for me at least, F9 was a big wake up call when I look at my local ticket sales.

 

(it also could just be that F9 MASSIVELY over-performed locally — on the other hand, @Inceptionzq's AQP II -> F9 comp was fairly on target as well [haven't done the math to see how close it was])

 

 

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

...

 

Went on a bit there.  Sorry.

 

Like I said, I am prepared to be VERY wrong on BW.  But right now, gun to my head, my headspace/expectations are in the 14m to 17m range for Thr, with it probably being closer to 14m to 16m.  F9's performance just weighs that heavily on me.

 

I'm sure there's points of yours I didn't address, @charlie Jatinder.  But, well, post was long enough as it was. Plus it's nearly 2am here.   Whatever I missed or any counterpoints you have to make to my analysis in my last post, I'll try to get to later.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

I understand your concern @Porthos.

 

First off, I looked back, and yes your coverage increased a lot from even 2nd quarter of 2019 to end of 2019. TRoS sold 19.5K tickets overall, but adjusted for theaters tracked for TLK was just 18.5K. So 1K+ worth tickets were sold in extra theaters. Wonder how many more you added since then.

 

Second, though F9 is franchise which sells well outside major chains/cities but when you go bigger in numbers, share of major cities/chain reduces. So a $60M EG sell only 26.5K tickets in Sacramento while a $20M (34.5%) CM was 10.5K (40%)  or $23M (38%) TLK was 11K (41.5%) or $5.8M (9.6%) H&S was 3.1K (11.7%). Point being, something opening $15M plus will be better comp for something opening $15M plus than $7M.

 

Third, I was wrong in saying 10K will be equivalent of $20M. 10k will be more like $17.5M basing off Captain Marvel. Unless your coverage even more since TROS, then it will drop even more.

 

Fourth, Previews have always been MTC 1 and 2 heavy. e.g. for EG MTC1 and 2 were 41% of previews while for Friday they were 34%. Pre CoVID films do go for 45-50% for previews in MTC 1 and 2. For F9, previews were 50% while Friday was 37%.

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	2372	17479	13.57%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 159

Total Seats Sold Today: 160

 

Comp

1.938x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-9 Before Release (18.81M)

2.534x of F9 T-9 Before Release (17.99M)

 

Thought the review bump would be a bit bigger, but it's still a high either way and the film is still doing very well in the comps department. Can't complain too much at this point.

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	2510	17479	14.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 138

 

Comp

1.934x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-8 Before Release (18.76M)

2.505x of F9 T-8 Before Release (17.78M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	38	58	7177	0.81%

 

Don't have any comps, and the film's sales should be quiet, but it doesn't hurt to have this for any future animation/kids movie comps

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/30/2021 at 10:09 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-8	Jacksonville	6	58	9,786	845	59	8.63%
		Phoenix	6	52	8,730	716	34	8.20%
		Raleigh	7	47	5,835	1,057	73	18.11%
Black Widow Total			19	157	24,351	2,618	166	10.75%
The Boss Baby 2	T-1	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	54	-4	1.97%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	27	-1	1.06%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,794	94	35	5.24%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	65	7,088	175	30	2.47%
The Forever Purge	T-1	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	33	9	1.67%
		Phoenix	7	14	1,569	43	11	2.74%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,267	59	13	4.66%
The Forever Purge Total			19	40	4,814	135	33	2.80%

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-7	Jacksonville	6	58	9,786	896	51	9.16%
		Phoenix	6	52	8,730	770	54	8.82%
		Raleigh	7	47	5,835	1,167	110	20.00%
Black Widow Total			19	157	24,351	2,833	215	11.63%
Space Jam	T-15	Jacksonville	5	25	4,140	15	15	0.36%
		Phoenix	4	15	1,966	19	19	0.97%
		Raleigh	6	25	2,602	29	29	1.11%
Space Jam Total			15	65	8,708	63	63	0.72%
The Boss Baby 2	T-0	Jacksonville	5	25	2,736	66	12	2.41%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,558	61	34	2.38%
		Raleigh	7	20	1,794	132	38	7.36%
The Boss Baby 2 Total			18	65	7,088	259	84	3.65%
The Forever Purge	T-0	Jacksonville	5	12	1,978	60	27	3.03%
		Phoenix	7	17	1,781	84	41	4.72%
		Raleigh	7	14	1,267	78	19	6.16%
The Forever Purge Total			19	43	5,026	222	87	4.42%

 

BW compared to F9

 

F9 T-7

Jacksonville - 257 (3.486x)

Phoenix - 332 (2.320x)

Raleigh - 376 (3.104x)

 

Beat F9 new sales 215 to 65; really strong day for BW

 

Boss Baby compared to Peter Rabbit 2

 

PR2 T-0

Jacksonville - 77 

Phoenix - 34

Raleigh - 147

Ahead of PR2 by... one ticket.  259 to 258 total between the three cities.  Tomorrow I'll look at weekend sales by day for that comparison.