The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

16 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	2510	17479	14.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 138

 

Comp

1.934x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-8 Before Release (18.76M)

2.505x of F9 T-8 Before Release (17.78M)

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	2644	17697	14.94%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 218

Total Seats Sold Today: 134

 

Comp

1.850x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-7 Before Release (17.95M)

2.506x of F9 T-7 Before Release (17.79M)

[Eric Duncan]

16 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	38	58	7177	0.81%

 

Don't have any comps, and the film's sales should be quiet, but it doesn't hurt to have this for any future animation/kids movie comps

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	40	83	7554	1.10%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 377

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	151	19486	22959	3473	15.13%

 

Cinema West Showings Reintegrated Today	19
Total Seats Reintegrated Today	2497
Total Seats Sold Reintegrated Today	190

 

Total Showings Added At All Other Locations Today	10
Total Seats Added At All Other Locations Today	1198
Total Seats Sold At All Other Locations Today	204

 

Total Net Seats Sold Added To Count

394

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	248.15		100	1323		0/84	11791/13114	10.09%		17.62m
BW (F9 adj)	---		204	3283		0/132	17179/20462	16.04%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	425.63		67	800		2/83	2687/3487	22.94%		20.43m
BW (adj)	---		202	3405		0/151	19434/22839	14.91%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the seat maps have been removed from the one theater which still has unreliable data.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

===

 

Two more Cinema West theaters were able to be verified today, as they eliminated social districting restrictions.  I fully expect the last holdout to get rid of their distancing requirements in the next day or two (I actually reckon that they just haven't updated their computers yet at that one holdout).

 

As for how that affected the AQP II comp?  Made it rise very slightly, even though the day-to-day comp would have pointed to a continued decline, as BW is selling better at those two theaters than AQP II had done at this point in time.  

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	177	21748	25562	3814	14.92%

 

Cinema West Showings Reintegrated Today	13
Total Seats Reintegrated Today	1645
Total Seats Sold Reintegrated Today	190

 

Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	958
Total Seats Sold Today	151

NOTE:  I was able to reintegrate the last Cinema West location early enough today to consider all other seats sold at that location today as part of today's sales.

 

Total Net Seats Sold Added To Count

341

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	241.12		91	1414		0/86	11869/13283	10.09%		17.12m
BW (F9 adj)	---		128	3411		0/145	18009/21420	15.92%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	404.23		103	922		2/85	2631/3553	25.95%		19.40m
BW (AQP adj)	---		149	3727		0/177	21685/25412	14.67%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.76473x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-7 [15.83m] [143 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

 

===

 

As said earlier today, last Cinema West location fixed its seatmaps, and was reintegrated into the count.  Kinda an "eh" day, but perhaps that's a bit natural given there was a review drop day, followed by a Loki boost day.  All comps except for the very unofficial CM comp dropped as a result (while the CM one more or less kept pace).  

 

On the plus side, a ton of showings have already been added, so I won't be surprised to see a larger boost tomorrow as those seats are grabbed from folks waiting on the sidelines. 

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Black Widow Harkins T-7 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross
Normal	294	69,797	2,296	3.29%	$25,414
Cine 1	17	4,999	1,316	26.33%	$19,204
Cine Capri	9	3,201	407	12.71%	$4,958
IMAX	3	1,335	165	12.36%	$2,475
Total	323	79,332	4,184	5.27%	$52,051

 

 

First off, damn. How do you guys do it. It took me 4 hours to track these, thanks to @Lokis Legion for his assistance. Though to be fair, tracking wouldn't have taken that much time, but filling capacities did.

 

Anyhow, in last 3 days, 142 shows added and sold 916 seats. Simply using usual Harkins ratio give $2.75M Nationwide previews estimate, but that doesn't mean much since the sales seems backloaded in the chain. 

 

However, using this + Megaplex, can estimate the USA non-MTC numbers.

Spoiler

	T-17	T-10	T-7
A	1.00	1.35	1.72
R	0.75	1.02	1.25
C	0.49	0.65	0.79
M+H	0.06	0.08	0.09
US-R	0.50	0.68	0.84
CA	0.02	0.03	0.15
	2.82	3.80	4.84

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Cineplex is now selling Black Widow. I checked a couple of shows in Vancouver, they are selling pretty well. @ZackM is I suppose offline, any other Canadian tracker we have?

 

Edit: Checked few Cineplex

 

Surrey - 6 locs, 940 sold on 74 shows + 7 sellouts (~500+)

Montreal - 8 locs, 819 sold on 56 shows + 2 sellouts (~150+)

Edited July 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

57 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 

First off, damn. How do you guys do it.

 

Some folks use scrapers, for one.

 

Since I don't have the technical know-how to build one and since I mainly use Fandango (and thus would get IP banned in short order if I tried to scrape it), I just end up using a shortcut I found that speeds up my count considerably,

 

For example, it took me "just" 45 minutes to check 175 reserved seating shows for tonight's BW track.  Helps when there is no day-to-day difference on any given showing, naturally. Or when there is just a handful/zero tickets sold and I can eye ball it very quickly.  But I think I probably would have given up long ago if I didn't figure out how to easily search the source page of a seat map and just quickly note the number of sold seats, plug it in to my spread sheet, and then move on to the next showing.

 

A bit more of a gory detail in spoilers:

 

Spoiler

I have a javascript shortcut set up which views the complete HTML source code of any given webpage, thus bypassing the much more inferior "View Source" given by most web browsers.  I understand a few people here do something similar by using the Inspect Element tools of Chrome or other browsers, but that's what works for me.

 

Here is what I use:

 

javascript:var%20sourceWindow%20%3D%20window.open%28%27about%3Ablank%27%29%3B%20%0Avar%20newDoc%20%3D%20sourceWindow.document%3B%20%0AnewDoc.open%28%29%3B%20%0AnewDoc.write%28%27%3Chtml%3E%3Chead%3E%3Ctitle%3ESource%20of%20%27%20%2B%20document.location.href%20%2B%20%27%3C/title%3E%3C/head%3E%3Cbody%3E%3C/body%3E%3C/html%3E%27%29%3B%20%0AnewDoc.close%28%29%3B%20%0Avar%20pre%20%3D%20newDoc.body.appendChild%28newDoc.createElement%28%22pre%22%29%29%3B%20%0Apre.appendChild%28newDoc.createTextNode%28document.documentElement.innerHTML%29%29%3B

 

I have that Javascript saved as a bookmark.  When I load up a seat map, I click on that bookmark, and it loads up the HTML source code of the webpage a seatmap is on  in a new tab.  

 

For Fandango, I then search for "- This seat is unavailable." without the quote marks. The number of hits I get, tells me the number of seats sold, and I punch that into my spreadsheet and then move on to the next showing.  The longest amount of time, actually, is manually opening up each and every showing I have to check.

 

I do have to check a couple of other sites, and I have different search terms for those.  The basic gist is:  Look for whatever symbol marks a sold seat, figure out how that's encoded in the HTML, and search for exactly that.  

 

Takes a bit of trial and error, and also have to account for damaged/unavailable seats if a ticket seller doesn't differentiate between a sold seat and a seat that can never be purchase [I tend to figure that out when I first set up my sheets/check out a brand new showing] but it has immeasurably sped up my counts since when I used to count each by hand.  

 

Other folks might be able to help you automate it on your end, set up some sort of scraper.  That's beyond my technical skills, I'm afraid.

Edited July 2, 2021 by Porthos

[Krissykins]

That’s a shame that The Purge is headed for a sub $10m opening. Thought without a streaming component it would be more $15-20m. The trailer isn’t great though. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-7	Jacksonville	6	58	9,786	896	51	9.16%
		Phoenix	6	52	8,730	770	54	8.82%
		Raleigh	7	47	5,835	1,167	110	20.00%
Black Widow Total			19	157	24,351	2,833	215	11.63%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-15	Jacksonville	5	25	4,140	15	15	0.36%
		Phoenix	4	15	1,966	19	19	0.97%
		Raleigh	6	25	2,602	29	29	1.11%
Space Jam Total			15	65	8,708	63	63	0.72%

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Black Widow	T-6	Jacksonville	6	64	11,033	974	78	8.83%
		Phoenix	6	52	8,730	818	48	9.37%
		Raleigh	7	47	5,835	1,226	59	21.01%
Black Widow Total			19	163	25,598	3,018	185	11.79%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-14	Jacksonville	5	25	4,140	24	9	0.58%
		Phoenix	5	17	2,120	21	2	0.99%
		Raleigh	6	25	2,602	30	1	1.15%
Space Jam Total			16	67	8,862	75	12	0.85%

 

BW compared to F9

 

F9 T-6

Jacksonville - 283 (3.442x)

Phoenix - 349 (2.344x)

Raleigh - 410 (2.990x)

 

Gonna wait another day to start Escape Room.  It doesn't seem like it would be a very big pre-sale movie, but I guess I'll find out soon.  I did notice that shows are starting at 3pm which seems very early.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Movie Date	Day	Theaters	Shows	Friday	Tuesday
Zola	6/29	Tuesday	5	8	27	27
Zola	7/2	Friday	6	25	31	1
Zola	7/3	Saturday	6	26	13	0
Zola	7/4	Sunday	6	22	3	0
The Boss Baby: Family Business	7/1	Thursday	5	25	66	58
The Boss Baby: Family Business	7/2	Friday	5	58	334	45
The Boss Baby: Family Business	7/3	Saturday	5	56	138	15
The Boss Baby: Family Business	7/4	Sunday	5	54	31	6
The Forever Purge	7/1	Thursday	5	12	60	24
The Forever Purge	7/2	Friday	5	37	163	25
The Forever Purge	7/3	Saturday	5	37	37	5
The Forever Purge	7/4	Sunday	5	34	7	7

 

Jacksonville weekend sales pulled Tuesday and again this morning.  

 

Boss Baby pacing well ahead of Peter Rabbit.  Weekend sales lead of 569 to 361 (using my early Thursday sales numbers for both).  

[charlie Jatinder]

 

MTC 1 sales are about 74% T-7 days. CM was 5.4M and SM:FFH was $3.4M per Wang while BW is estimated at $4M.

Now that is in line with Sacramento adj. numbers of CM we were seeing. Not a prediction, but personally feel/hope $18M previews are doable, leading up to $105M OW.

Edited July 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Anyone from North East Coast, we can start tracking Showcase cinemas. 18 locs in NY, MA and Ohio. We are tracking Harkins which is based in South West and we have Megaplex in Mid West, something from East will be great. 

 

Since MTC 1 and 2 are tracked in complete, tracking individual theaters of these chains might be bit of...

 

Having non-MTC theaters tracked give more variety.

 

cc @Cap since chain is in NY and MA.

Edited July 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

473

1980

23.89%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

477

1939

24.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2360	171	24647	9.58%	15	135

 

Showings added: 3

Seats added: 599

 

F9 comp: 23.40M

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

504

1980

25.45%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

495

1939

25.53%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2477	117	25311	9.79%	15	141

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 664

 

F9 comp: 22.78M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-7 days Thursday(91 showings): 2839(+162)/25346(+472) in 14 theaters. $39,746 with $14 ATP

 

T-8 days Friday(102 showings): 2209(+237)/36855 in 14 theaters. $29,822 with $13.50 ATP

 

Thursday is 4.16x Fast 9 at the same point; Friday is 2.62x Fast 9 at the same point

 

Fast 9 was underperforming/just don't do as well at Megaplexs, so this isn't really surprising. Plus Marvel movies perform really well here

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-6 days Thursday(91 showings): 3030(+191)/25346 in 14 theaters. $42,420 with $14 ATP

 

T-7 days Friday(102 showings): 2359(+150)/36855 in 14 theaters. $31,847 with $13.50 ATP

 

Thursday is 4.1x Fast 9 at the same point; Friday is 2.49x Fast 9

[Eric Duncan]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-black-widow/

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast Range	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast Range	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
7/9/2021	Black Widow	$80,000,000 – $110,000,000	+11%	$205,000,000 – $310,000,000	+11%	4,000	Disney / Marvel Studios
7/16/2021	Escape Room: Tournament of Champions	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000	-14%	$24,000,000 – $39,000,000	-14%	3,000	Sony Pictures / Columbia
7/16/2021	The Night House					n/a	Disney / Searchlight Pictures
7/16/2021	Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain					n/a	Focus Features
7/16/2021	Space Jam: A New Legacy	$15,000,000 – $30,000,000		$45,000,000 – $100,000,000		3,400	Warner Bros. Pictures
7/23/2021	The Comeback Trail	$1,000,000 – $5,000,000		$2,500,000 – $15,000,000			Cloudburst Entertainment
7/23/2021	Joe Bell	$1,000,000 – $5,000,000		$3,000,000 – $15,000,000		750	Roadside Attractions
7/23/2021	Old	$12,000,000 – $22,000,000	-10%	$32,000,000 – $60,000,000	-6%		Universal Pictures
7/23/2021	Snake Eyes	$20,000,000 – $40,000,000		$50,000,000 – $100,000,000			Paramount Pictures

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Black Widow MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 3093 (+25)

Seats Sold: 60602/459959 (+5714)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 5117 (+70)

Seats Sold: 43971/788270 (+5796)

 

This is about 1.5 days of data. 

 

At the same time, F9 had 25139 for Thursday and 24540 for Friday. The daily pace was +1890 for Thursday and +2142 for Friday. Adjusting Black Widow's pace to ~+3900 for both, the pace is 2.06x that of F9 for Thursday and 1.82x that of F9 for Friday. Honestly, Friday's pace looks pretty good and it's at 75% of Thursday already. The Friday pace passed the Thursday one at about the same time as F9 as well. I think this might be less frontloaded than we have been expecting. 

 

[Legion Again]

If the new 94M opening (no point estimate specified, taking geomean) is +11%, then last week it must have been ~84-85 — +10% compared to 77M the week before, on the June 18 initial LRF.   
 

One more increase of 7% would do the trick  

Edited July 3, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

May be 170-180K final i.e. $2.3-2.45M. That will be giving around $14.5-15.5M. Jee. Need to do better than that. Must reach 210K.

 

As for Friday may be 130-140K. PSm say 2.1x for 275-300K. $3.25-3.6M. That will be giving $24-26M.

 

Need to do better than these.

 

Hopefully 210K Previews. 160K Friday PS and 350K final.

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

May be 170-180K final i.e. $2.3-2.45M. That will be giving around $14.5-15.5M. Jee. Need to do better than that. Must reach 210K.

 

As for Friday may be 130-140K. PSm say 2.1x for 275-300K. $3.25-3.6M. That will be giving $24-26M.

 

Need to do better than these.

 

Hopefully 210K Previews. 160K Friday PS and 350K final.

You mean at MTC2? Those numbers seem very pessimistic to me. 180k seems more like 11-12 million but I don't see how it will be only that given the current number. Even if it added the exact same number as F9 from this point it would break 160k. And the pace is more than double.

Edited July 3, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, Menor said:

You mean at MTC2?

Those numbers seem very pessimistic to me. 180k seems more like 11-12 million but I don't see how it will be only that given the current number. Even if it added the exact same number as F9 from this point it would break 160k. And the pace is more than double.

Yeah MTC 2 numbers.

 

180K would be around $16M for a MCU film in normalcy, adjusting for missing Canada and few closed chains in USA whose business might be going to MTC 2, should be around $15-15.5M. 

 

F9 over indexed in MTC 2 being 21% of previews, which was evident from pre-sales, which isn't the case here.

 

Yeah I was being careful in projections. F9 added 32K till WED night, and 63K on final day (2.1x PSm). For BW I thought 40-45K till WED night and 70-75K on final day. Will be more than happy with something like 55K till WED night and 85K final day.

Edited July 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	2644	17697	14.94%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 218

Total Seats Sold Today: 134

 

Comp

1.850x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-7 Before Release (17.95M)

2.506x of F9 T-7 Before Release (17.79M)

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	90	2867	17786	16.12%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 89

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 223

 

Comp

1.771x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-6 Before Release (17.18M)

2.513x of F9 T-6 Before Release (17.84M)