The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

Both previous PA releases are simply far too small.   
 

If you want a 0-day window comp, Eric’s GvK that he’s been posting regularly provides a bit of that flavor, and the OD bigger than F9’s previews. Although GvK’s final ramp up was limited by capacity in many regions.

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Both previous PA releases are simply far too small.   
 

If you want a 0-day window comp, Eric’s GvK that he’s been posting regularly provides a bit of that flavor, and the OD bigger than F9’s previews. Although GvK’s final ramp up was limited by capacity in many regions.

 

This is one reason why I personally am not using my GvK comp.  Plus Regal was still down at the time, and various other closures. 

 

*takes a quick glance*

 

GvK on Fri Night (which would be the equivilent of Sat Night for BW) sold 2,648 tickets vs BW's adj [no DBOX, but everything else counted] tickets of 4,229 which would be 1.597x which in turn would be 15.49m.

 

Adjust upwards by about 10%-15% and you get 17.04m - 17.82m.

 

Or right around the comps I had of F9 and AQP II.  

 

EDIT:  GvK adjusted upward by 5% gives 16.26m which is pretty on target for the current CM comp.

Edited July 4, 2021 by Porthos

[titanic2187]

Is Disney promoting PA hard? I don't see Disney highlight the availability of BW on disney+ as intense as WB did with their HBO max 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Black Widow MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 3159 (+66)

Seats Sold: 65214/466789 (+4612)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 5183 (+66)

Seats Sold: 49377/795047 (+5406)

 

Thursday ramp up is fine but honestly I expected more acceleration in the last couple of days. I conservatively am going with 14m previews (170k finish at MTC2) for now, let's hope it can go higher. Friday seems healthy and I think it can double Thursday. 

 

GvK overperformed big time at MTC2, but a straight up comp gives ~13 million for previews. That will probably decline a bit in the next couple of days and then jump at the end as GvK had somewhat limited walkups. MTC1 numbers look much better.

 

Edit: This is from yesterday afternoon. I forgot to post yesterday. So don't take these as Sunday numbers (as that would make the pace disastrously slow). Should have made that clear in the original post. 

Edited July 4, 2021 by Menor

[Menor the Destroyer]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

This is one reason why I personally am not using my GvK comp.  Plus Regal was still down at the time, and various other closures. 

 

*takes a quick glance*

 

GvK on Fri Night (which would be the equivilent of Sat Night for BW) sold 2,648 tickets vs BW's adj [no DBOX, but everything else counted] tickets of 4,229 which would be 1.597x which in turn would be 15.49m.

 

Adjust upwards by about 10%-15% and you get 17.04m - 17.82m.

 

Or right around the comps I had of F9 and AQP II.  

 

EDIT:  GvK adjusted upward by 5% gives 16.26m which is pretty on target for the current CM comp.

Have to consider PWPs there as well with GvK. 

[TalismanRing]

Oi... the last time I tracked was Onward....  my old chart is under the spoiler cut

 

BW:  13 shows. 2 RPX, One 3D

 

As of 1pm, Sunday: July 4th -  224/3584 = 6.25%

 

Comps: (Monday)

 

Avengers: Endgame: 3948/4,736 (12am )

The Lion King:  236/3228 (6:30pm)

Hobbs & Shaw: 60/1543 (5:20pm)

IT Part 2:  147/2764 (9am)

Joker:  328/3536 (4:20pm)

Frozen 2: 122/1824 (4pm)

 

Spoiler

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Preview Start
Shazam!					129/2229	(Afternoon)	187/2229	(3:30pm)	$5.9m	4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame	3948/4,736	(12am)			4,853/5493	(9pm)			$60m	6:00 PM
Aladdin			98/1242	(12pm)					$7m	6:00 PM
Godzilla 2					135/1915	(7:45pm)	204/2150	(3:30pm)	$6.3m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
SLOP 2			38/771	(4pm)	43/771	(3:15pm)			$2.3m	6:00 PM
Toy Story 4			165/2049	(4pm)	233/2049	(7:40pm)			$12m	6:00 PM
SM:FFH	142/922								$2.8m	Midnights Only
The Lion King	236/3228	(6:30pm)	294/3228	(6:20pm)	444/3228	(4:30pm)	557/3228	(4:30pm)	$23m	6:00 PM
OUATIH			117/1179	(2:15pm)	159/1179	(4pm)	335/1179	(4:20pm)	$5.8m	4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
IT Part 2	147/2764	(9am)			239/2764	(7:10pm)			$10.5m	5:00 PM
Hustlers			45/512	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)			37/301	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.2m	7:00 PM
Ad Astra			26/602	(4:30pm)	26/602	(4:30pm)	41/602	(4:30pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey			31/512	(4:30pm)	39/512	(4:30pm)	52/1015	(4:30pm)	$2.1m	7:00 PM
Rambo			29/302	(4:30pm)	53/1242	(4:30pm)	58/1242	(4:30pm)	$1.3m	6:00 PM
Abominable			30/255	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	73/1969	(4:30pm)	$.65m	6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week)	104/2766	(9am)	172/2766	(4:30pm)			217/3536	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Gemini Man			38/1004	(4pm)	38/1004	(4pm)	78/1004	[6:30pm]	$1.55m	7:00 PM
Adams Family		(4pm)	53/1373	(4pm)	49/1373	(4pm)			$1.25m	4:00 PM
Maleficent 2	39/1154	(4pm)	42/1154	(4pm)	53/1154	(4pm)	96/1425	[6pm]	$2.3m	7:00 PM
Zombieland 2	51/1114	(4pm)	53/1114	(4pm)	67/1177	(4pm)	95/1478	[6pm]	$2.85m	7:00 PM
Black & Blue			19/410	(4pm)	19/410	(4pm)	20/410	(4pm)	$.68m	7:00 PM
Countdown			15/511	(4pm)			19/411	(4pm)	$.52m	7:00 PM
Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)	113/1242	(4pm)	$2.35m	7:00 PM
Harriet	25/512	(4pm)	25/512	(4pm)	27/512	(5:30pm)	29/512	(4pm)	$.6m	7:00 PM
Midway	20/512	(4pm)	23/512	(4pm)	22/512	(4:30pm)	27/512	(5pm)	$.925m	7:00 PM
Dr Sleep	23/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4:30pm)	53/512	(5pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Last Christmas	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4:30pm)	16/496	(5pm)	$.575m	7:00 PM
Playing With Fire	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4:30pm)	18/654	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari	50/1152	(4pm)	48/1152	(4pm)	53/1152	(4pm)	65/1152	(5:30pm)	$2.1m	6:00 PM
Charlies Angels	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	20/903	(4pm)	$.9m	4:00 PM
Frozen 2	122/1824	(4pm)	169/ 2724	(4pm)	208/ 2724	(4:30pm)	304/2274	(4:30pm)	$8.5m	6:00 PM
A Beautiful Day ...	30/768	(4pm)	30/768	(4pm)	36/768	(4:30pm)	52/768	(4:30pm)	$.9m	6:00 PM
21 Bridges	26/492	(4pm)	25/492	(4pm)	30/492	(4:30pm)	44/492	(4:30pm)	$.7m	7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps)	42/514	(4pm)	53/514	(4pm)	67/514	(4:30pm)	85/514	(4:30pm)	$2.03m	7:00 PM
Knives Out (Wed)	42/937	(4pm)	81/937	(5:30pm)					$1.66m	7:00 PM
Jumanji 2	72/1864	(4pm)	120/3381	(5:30pm)	141/3381	(5:30pm)	178/3381	(4pm)	$4.7m	4:00 PM
Black Christmas	22/512	(4pm)	24/512	(5:30pm)	24/512	(5:30pm)	24/512	(4pm)	$.230m	7:00 PM
Star Wars: TROS	2106/4291	(4:30pm)			2331/4547	(9pm)			$40m	6:00 PM
Cats	19/436	(4:30pm)			22/436	(5:30pm)			$.55m	7:00 PM
1917			20/512	(7pm)			36/512	(1:45pm)	$3.25m	7:00 PM
Just Mercy			20/512	(7pm)	20/512	(5pm)	20/512	(1:45pm)	$.8m	5:00 PM
Underwater			22/512	(7pm)			22/512	(1:45pm)	$.5m	7:00 PM
Like A Boss			10/514	(7pm)			13/514	(1:45pm)	$1m	7:00 PM
Doolittle	26/512	(4pm)	38/832	(9pm)	51/1285	(7pm)	67/1285	(5pm)	$.9m	5:00 PM
Bad Boys 3	46/903	(4pm)	84/1543	(9pm)	121/2018	(7pm)	246/2018	(5pm)	$6.36m	4:00 PM
The Gentlemen	22/512	(4pm)	22/512	(4pm)	26/512	(4pm)	33/512	(4pm)	$.73m	7:00 PM
Turning	15/410	(4pm)	14/410	(4pm)	14/410	(4pm)	21/410	(4pm)	$.43m	7:00 PM
Gretel & Hansel			28/602	(7pm)	29/602	(6pm)	31/602; 43/602	(4pm) (7pm)	$.235m	7:00 PM
Rhythm Nation			20/512	(7pm)	22/512	(6pm)	24/512 ; 31/512	(4pm) (7pm)	$.475m	7:00 PM
Birds Of Prey (-1 week)					60/1844	(6pm)	67/1844	(4pm)		6:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Sonic			56/771	(5pm)	93/1499	(5pm)	118/1499	(4pm)	$3m	5:00 PM
Downhill			15/410	(5pm)	15/410	(5pm)	17/410	(4pm)	$.2m	6:00 PM
Photograph			28/760	(5pm)	29/760	(5pm)	39/760	(4pm)	$.65m	5:00 PM
Call Of The Wild	15/410	(4pm)			36/1050	(4pm)	40/1050	(4pm)	$1m	6:00 PM
Brahms: The Boy II	20/510	(4pm)			24/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4pm)	$.38m	7:00 PM
Invisible Man	42/1151	(4pm)	44/1151	(4pm)	48/1151	(5pm)	70/1151	(6:30pm)		7:00 PM
Onward (Sat sneaks)	53/160	(4pm)	56/160	(4pm)	76/160	(5pm)	80/160	(6:30pm)		3pm (Sat)

 

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2021 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Have to consider PWPs there as well with GvK. 

Yes, GvK (and to a much lesser degree AQP II) went nuts on PWPs.  Now they're practically a non-factor for Thursday.  Just another reason why I ain't using it.

 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Menor said:

Have to consider PWPs there as well with GvK. 

 

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Yes, GvK (and to a much lesser degree AQP II) went nuts on PWPs.  Now they're practically a non-factor for Thursday.  Just another reason why I ain't using it.

 

 

I did track PWPs for GvK mind (ain't bothering for BW), so let me see if I can eye ball that.

 

GvK w/PWP: 2,648 + 996* = 3,644

BW - DBOX                        = 4,229

* rough approx for PWP

 

That'd be 1.16x GvK = 11.25m 

 

Up it by 5% to 15% = 11.82m to 12.95m

 

On the other hand, GvK pretty much ran into a brick wall at T-2 or so, so BW is gonna accelerate right past that number.

 

29 minutes ago, Menor said:

Thursday ramp up is fine but honestly I expected more acceleration in the last couple of days. I conservatively am going with 14m previews (170k finish at MTC2) for now, let's hope it can go higher. Friday seems healthy and I think it can double Thursday. 

 

I personally have been thinking 14-16 for a while now, and haven't been that impressed with BW's ramp up as well.

 

FWIW, put a gun to my head, I think it'll be north of 15m, but that's a gut feeling at the moment.

 

Still, dangerous to say that before the start of the Sunday Surge (movies tend to take off on Sunday when there is previews on Thursday from what I've seen).

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

543

1980

27.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

534

2428

21.99%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2648	171	26062	10.16%	15	150

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 751

 

F9 comp: 22.20M

TLK comp: 16.65M

 

No adjustments made for TLK comp, except for only comparing in the theaters I tracked TLK in of course. So take it with a grain of salt, as always with the pre-pandemic comps

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

576

1980

29.09%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

578

2428

23.81%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2816	168	26062	10.81%	15	150

 

F9 comp: 21.57M

TLK comp: 16.35M

[Menor the Destroyer]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

I did track PWPs for GvK mind (ain't bothering for BW), so let me see if I can eye ball that.

 

GvK w/PWP: 2,648 + 996* = 3,644

BW - DBOX                        = 4,229

* rough approx for PWP

 

That'd be 1.16x GvK = 11.25m 

 

Up it by 5% to 15% = 11.82m to 12.95m

 

On the other hand, GvK pretty much ran into a brick wall at T-2 or so, so BW is gonna accelerate right past that number.

 

 

I personally have been thinking 14-16 for a while now, and haven't been that impressed with BW's ramp up as well.

 

FWIW, put a gun to my head, I think it'll be north of 15m, but that's a gut feeling at the moment.

 

Still, dangerous to say that before the start of the Sunday Surge (movies tend to take off on Sunday when there is previews on Thursday from what I've seen).

Yeah I have noticed the Sunday bump as well. I unfortunately didn't take Saturday for F9 but I think Keyser did post something so maybe I can parse what F9's Sunday bump might have looked like from that, although come to think of it the DBOX issue probably makes that impossible. 

Edited July 4, 2021 by Menor

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-5 days Thursday(91 showings): 3197(+167)/25346 in 14 theaters. $44,758 with $14 ATP

 

T-6 days Friday(102 showings): 2613(+254)/36855 in 14 theaters. $35,276 with $13.50 ATP

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-4 days Thursday(91 showings): 3440(+243)/25346 in 14 theaters. $48,160 with $14 ATP

 

T-5 days Friday(102 showings): 2878(+265)/36855 in 14 theaters. $38,853 with $13.50 ATP

[SnokesLegs]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Is Disney promoting PA hard? I don't see Disney highlight the availability of BW on disney+ as intense as WB did with their HBO max 

There’s adverts on the side of buses here in the UK saying “In cinemas July 7th and Disney+ Premier Access July 9th” and all TV adverts I’ve seen show the same information, so they’re definitely not shying away from PA.

[AJG]

39 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

There’s adverts on the side of buses here in the UK saying “In cinemas July 7th and Disney+ Premier Access July 9th” and all TV adverts I’ve seen show the same information, so they’re definitely not shying away from PA.

 

Apart from in Cinemas where they've been barred from mentioning Disney+ anywhere on the promos.

[Shawn Robbins]

On 7/1/2021 at 11:25 AM, WrathOfHan said:

Preview update:

 

The Boss Baby: Family Business:

4:00: 12/107 (+4)

6:45: 2/107 (-1)

Total: 14/214 (+3)

 

The Forever Purge:

7:00: 14/107 (+8)

9:00: 7/77 (+7)

Total: 21/184 (+15)

 

Comps:

 

Boss Baby:

 

44% of Cruella Previews (615k)

127% of Peter Rabbit 2 Previews (1.1M)

 

The Peter Rabbit comp should be the more suitable one. The holiday might boost it a little, but sub-15M feels really disappointing given @Shawn's range was 15-35M. 

 

Purge:

 

11% of AQP2 Previews (530k)

26% of Conjuring 3 Friday the day before (2.5M)

75% of Spiral Previews (560k)

 

Anything higher than 6M for the weekend would be a win. What a fall for this franchise.

Haven't caught up on all of the convo in here, but yeah, signs going into this weekend were out of whack all around. TFP really knows how to draw those walkups. The super short sales cycle didn't help for tracking, IMHO. 

[Legion Again]

It ultimately wasn’t too far from the geomean of 15 and 35, bit under 23

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow MTC1

Previews - 97755/564418 1452914.00 3095 shows

Friday - 78706/802354 1061328.00 4020 shows

Saturday - 49106/841677 596441.00 4201 shows

 

This is data from morning. OD PS is catching up to previews. 

Black Widow MTC1

Previews - 108600/573920 1603732.00 3173 shows

Friday - 92453/809468 1233835.00 4066 shows

Saturday -  59219/848623 708309.00 4249 show

 

Day and half of data. OD PS run rate ahead of Previews at this point. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	193	22993	27313	4320	15.82%

 

Total Showings Added Today	15
Total Seats Added Today	1579
Total Seats Sold Today	250

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	240.22		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		17.06m
BW (F9 adj)	---		235	3858		0/161	19313/23171	16.78%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	365.83		163	1156		6/83	2342/3498	33.05%		17.56m
BW (AQP adj)	---		246	4229		0/193	22934/27163	15.57%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.78923x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-5 [16.34m] [235 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	193	22688	27313	4625	16.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

305

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp #1

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	228.57		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		16.23m
BW (F9 adj)	---		270	4128		0/161	19043/23171	17.82%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BW (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps during F9's track.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II	356.73		115	1271		7/85	2254/3525	36.06%		17.12m
BW (AQP adj)	---		305	4534		0/193	22629/27163	16.69%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: BW (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

VERY UNOFFICIAL COMP: 

0.78541x tickets sold as Captain Marvel at T-4 [16.26m] [296 tickets sold at equivalent theaters]

[charlie Jatinder]

TLK on July 4 dropped from 138 to 89 and then jumped to 107 on 5th July. So all good man. Normally it would have been 375-425 may be, Now let's see if it hit 600 tomorrow.

[Eric Duncan]

On 7/3/2021 at 11:14 PM, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	90	3065	17786	17.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 198

 

Comp

1.765x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-5 Before Release (17.13M)

2.369x of F9 T-5 Before Release (16.82M)

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	90	3359	17786	18.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 294

 

Comp

1.556x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-4 Before Release (15.1M)

2.397x of F9 T-4 Before Release (17.02M)

 

This is a pretty muted final Sunday, though it is a touch forgivable as this was a holiday full of distractions. I just hope this really picks up momentum these final few days

[Eric Duncan]

On 7/3/2021 at 11:24 PM, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	40	145	7554	1.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

 

Comp

2.164x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-13 Before Release (16.68M)

 

It's early days, so this Cruella comp should come down a bit IMO. Either way, this is still a very, very solid baseline to begin.

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	40	160	7554	2.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

1.839x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-12 Before Release (14.17M)