The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

VENOM Thursday sales:

 

Cinemark: (7)

4pm XD (2), 645 XD (4), 930 XD (0)

5 (1), 6 (0), 745 (0), 1030 (0)

845 3D (0)

 

AMC: (69)

4pm DOLBY (8), 7pm DOLBY (48)

530 3D (0), 830 3D (5)

430 (0), 730 (8)

[Joyous Legion]

Yeah on the one hand the V1 run provides some reason to believe this could be a pretty backloaded PS run. On the other hand counting on a sequel to be PS backloaded like it's first entry seems like a risky proposition.

[lorddemaxus]

Ok gonna try doing this. Will worry about formatting later. The total seat count might be wrong for some of them because I accidently counted the wheelchair spots as seats, but I'll fix that tomorrow. Nothing eventful so far though.

 

Venom 2

 

Regal Stonestown

 

ScreenX 2D 4:00PM: 0/204

ScreenX 2DX 6:30PM: 2/204

ScreenX 2DX 9:00PM: 1/204

RPX 4:30PM: 3/296

RPX 7:00PM: 2/296

RPX 9:30PM: 0/296

2D 5:00PM: 1/210

2d 7:30PM: 0/210

2D 10:00PM: 0/210

4DX 3D: 7/136

4DX 2D 8:00PM: 2/136

4DX 2D 10:00PM: 0/136

 

Regal Jack London

 

4:00 PM: 0/119

4:40 PM: 1/252

7:20 PM: 0/252

9:00 PM: 0/119

9:30 PM: 0/252

Digital 3D 6:30 PM: 0/119

Edited September 9, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Porthos]

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	127	21962	22310	348	1.56%

 

Total Seats Sold

348

 

Day 1 Comp

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	31.96		1089	1089		0/99	16124/17213	6.33%		4.42m
TSS	195.51		178	178		0/69	11531/11709	1.52%		8.21m
SC	62.82		554	554		0/92	15096/15650	3.54%		5.53m

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). Neither the TSS nor the SC Comp have been adjusted.

 

Regal: 88/7330 [1.20% sold]

 

=====

 

Right off the bat I should mention that five theaters in town haven't checked in yet, so that might be messing with things slightly.  On the positive, that did allow me to have an unadjusted Black Widow comp, as none of the Cinema West locations have checked in yet.

 

Aside from that.  Eh. 

 

Probably won't really have a handle on things for a couple of days until I see how long the fan rush is and if it will fall off a cliff like The Suicide Squad  did. Mind, there is one good thing about a TSS comp: Venom 2 will have the exact same number of pre-sale days.

 

FWIW, and I don't think it's all that great of a comp, V2 did do 88.5% of F9's first day, which after Ontario adjustments would point to 6.58m.  But I don't expect it to have a late rush like F9 which is why I ain't comping it right now. Will keep a half an eye on it, though.

 

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Yeah on the one hand the V1 run provides some reason to believe this could be a pretty backloaded PS run. On the other hand counting on a sequel to be PS backloaded like it's first entry seems like a risky proposition.

 

And you say this just as I am typing up a bit on why I think a F9 comp might not be that great due to the notorious backloaded nature of the Furious franchise.

 

...

 

FWIW, Jurassic World 2 also had a very backloaded pre-sale run, so there are examples out there.  But like you, I won't exactly bet the house on it. 

[Joyous Legion]

Yeah there are totally some franchises that just skew backloaded even on their 2nd (or 10th!) entry. Maybe Venom will be one of them. I think generally they are not CBMs, but this is fairly "casual" are franchise as far as CBMs go, it's not like SPUMC megafans are driving up the day one sales here.  

 

Tl;Dr 🤷‍♂️ .... but wary 🤷‍♂️

[charlie Jatinder]

I think the only conclusion to make from today's sales is that its not opening under $4.5M i.e. Black Widow day 1. I expect SC comp to also increase but TSS shall decrease in time. Thinking of $6.5-7M for now.

[charlie Jatinder]

So about $425k worth THU sales today for Venom. That's about little more than half of SC and 38% of BW. Thinking $6-7M previews eventually. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Sacramento is under F9 Day 1 of sales. I didn't see comps of other regions. Not a good sign.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Bad Boys did 6.3m Thursday previews with 4pm showings. I cannot remember what time Venom started in 2018 but did 10m Thursday. Bad Boys finished with a 62.4m weekend. Venom is probably (?) more frontloaded so what would 6-7m Thursday mean? 55-60m? That's probably where I'd have it, too. I didn't think it could reach the 80+ of the first

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Bad Boys did 6.3m Thursday previews with 4pm showings. I cannot remember what time Venom started in 2018 but did 10m Thursday. Bad Boys finished with a 62.4m weekend. Venom is probably (?) more frontloaded so what would 6-7m Thursday mean? 55-60m? That's probably where I'd have it, too. I didn't think it could reach the 80+ of the first

 

Venom had 5pm previews.

[Madhuvan]

Venom 2 is going to be backloaded. There is no rush to book ticket. I can see it hitting 8-9m. Very GP friendly movie and shorter runtime will attract even more audience. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Venom Harkins T-22 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	70	19,027	40	0.21%	$455	$11.38
Cine 1	24	7,227	93	1.29%	$1,393	$14.98
IMAX	3	1,335	17	1.27%	$255	$15.00
Total	97	27,589	150	0.54%	$2,103	$14.02

 

First off, this isn't full chain but data of just 15 those theaters which did majority of bizz and were doing well in pre-sales for Shang Chi. There are some 10 other theaters, which hardly sell anything till final day and our P.I.T.A. to track and watch 0 seat sold. Of the total $6,716 first day sales for Shang Chi, $6,204 was in these 15 theaters.

 

Comps

33.8% of Shang Chi first day - $2.98M

35% of The Suicide Squad T-7 Days - $1.44M

 

Comps don't really matter at this point especially the joke TSS one. Weak start to sales, let's see if it pick up.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/7/2021 at 9:57 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-2	Show Me the Father	Jacksonville	4	9	1,327	13	13	0.98%
		Phoenix	5	9	1,292	5	5	0.39%
		Raleigh	4	9	1,138	1	1	0.09%
	Show Me the Father Total		13	27	3,757	19	19	0.51%
	The Card Counter	Jacksonville	1	1	88	0	0	0.00%
		Phoenix	2	2	95	2	2	2.11%
		Raleigh	2	2	116	3	3	2.59%
	The Card Counter Total		5	5	299	5	5	1.67%
T-3	Malignant (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	21	2,712	16	16	0.59%
		Phoenix	5	14	1,521	27	27	1.78%
		Raleigh	8	27	3,922	35	35	0.89%
	Malignant (Friday) Total		18	62	8,155	78	78	0.96%
	Queenpins (Friday)	Jacksonville	1	4	508	3	3	0.59%
		Phoenix	1	4	448	3	3	0.67%
		Raleigh	1	4	352	0	0	0.00%
	Queenpins (Friday) Total		3	12	1,308	6	6	0.46%

 

Not really planning on tracking these other than today and maybe Thursday or Friday, but here's where we stand for this weekend. SMtF is surprisingly low - expected to see some group sales already out there.  Card Counter shouldn't make too much noise in only 500 theaters and Queenpins is a Cinemark exclusive.  I guess Malignant is the only one that would be worth even looking at.

 

Malignant comps

Reminiscence - 2.11x (1.43m)

Forever Purge - 1.2x (1.6m)

Green Knight - .9x (672k)

 

Average - 1.23m for Friday.  Pretty easy second weekend for Shang-Chi if you ask me.

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Show Me the Father	Jacksonville	5	11	1,499	14	1	0.93%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,368	9	4	0.66%
		Raleigh	5	11	1,314	1	0	0.08%
	Show Me the Father Total		15	32	4,181	24	5	0.57%
	The Card Counter	Jacksonville	1	1	88	0	0	0.00%
		Phoenix	2	2	95	17	15	17.89%
		Raleigh	2	2	116	7	4	6.03%
	The Card Counter Total		5	5	299	24	19	8.03%
T-1	Malignant (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	35	4,817	40	24	0.83%
		Phoenix	7	38	5,365	85	58	1.58%
		Raleigh	8	43	5,211	50	15	0.96%
	Malignant (Friday) Total		20	116	15,393	175	97	1.14%
	Queenpins (Friday)	Jacksonville	1	4	508	5	5	0.98%
		Phoenix	1	4	448	3	0	0.67%
		Raleigh	1	4	352	4	1	1.14%
	Queenpins (Friday) Total		3	12	1,308	12	6	0.92%

 

Pretty disappointing sales for SMtF and Queenpins.  Card Counter having as many sales as SMtF in only five showings is a little impressive.  Once again Malignant is the only new release that matters (although only slightly) for sales this weekend.

 

Malignant comps

Reminiscence - 2.4x (1.63m)

Forever Purge - 1.3x (1.72m)

Green Knight - .75x (565k)

 

Average - 1.3m

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Yup, WB didn't even bother to try with this one. 

The Eastwood movie next week is opening with zero fanfare as well. Looks like it's gonna be run of dumps from them until they try to make Dune into an event.

[Krissykins]

33 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Show Me the Father	Jacksonville	5	11	1,499	14	1	0.93%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,368	9	4	0.66%
		Raleigh	5	11	1,314	1	0	0.08%
	Show Me the Father Total		15	32	4,181	24	5	0.57%
	The Card Counter	Jacksonville	1	1	88	0	0	0.00%
		Phoenix	2	2	95	17	15	17.89%
		Raleigh	2	2	116	7	4	6.03%
	The Card Counter Total		5	5	299	24	19	8.03%
T-1	Malignant (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	35	4,817	40	24	0.83%
		Phoenix	7	38	5,365	85	58	1.58%
		Raleigh	8	43	5,211	50	15	0.96%
	Malignant (Friday) Total		20	116	15,393	175	97	1.14%
	Queenpins (Friday)	Jacksonville	1	4	508	5	5	0.98%
		Phoenix	1	4	448	3	0	0.67%
		Raleigh	1	4	352	4	1	1.14%
	Queenpins (Friday) Total		3	12	1,308	12	6	0.92%

 

Pretty disappointing sales for SMtF and Queenpins.  Card Counter having as many sales as SMtF in only five showings is a little impressive.  Once again Malignant is the only new release that matters (although only slightly) for sales this weekend.

 

Malignant comps

Reminiscence - 2.4x (1.63m)

Forever Purge - 1.3x (1.72m)

Green Knight - .75x (565k)

 

Average - 1.3m

Am I right in saying Malignant doesn’t have previews so that $1.3m is for the full Friday opening day? 
 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Day one comps for Venom

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	% Sold
T-21	Suicide Squad	Jacksonville	5	20	3,795	32	0.84%
		Phoenix	5	16	3,146	52	1.65%
		Raleigh	7	23	3,086	56	1.81%
	Suicide Squad Total		17	59	10,027	140	1.40%
T-21	Venom 2	Jacksonville	5	51	8,576	65	0.76%
		Phoenix	6	46	8,738	83	0.95%
		Raleigh	7	31	4,117	74	1.80%
	Venom 2 Total		18	128	21,431	222	1.04%

 

Somehow, T-21 for F9 was my first day of tracking sales; I don't have show counts but F9 had sold 272 tickets in these markets through T-21.  I didn't have time to grab Shang-Chi day 1 sales in Jacksonville or Phoenix, but I have Raleigh down for 175 tickets ~42%.  

 

Rough comps for Venom 2

Shang-Chi (day 1 Raleigh only) - .42x (3.7m)

TSS (day 1 = T-21) - 1.586x (6.5m)

F9 (day ? = T-21) - .816x (5.79m)

 

Average - 5.33m

 

Can probably throw out the SC comp at least until I had full numbers.  Let's say around 6m projection just from day 1 of sales.   As others have mentioned, there are a ton of showtimes, enough to warrant some broad comparisons against final numbers...

 

Venom previews (as of today)

Standard - 1,920 theaters; 9,741 shows

3D - 831 theaters; 1,543 shows

IMAX - 286 theaters; 783 shows

Total: 1,934 unique theaters; 12,067 shows

 

For comparison, here are my highest final preview show counts (done Friday morning after previews)

 

Black Widow - 23,129 (3,409 theaters)

Shang-Chi - 15,697 (3,523)

F9 - 15,241 (3,491)

A Quiet Place 2 - 15,220 (3,320)

Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934)

The Suicide Squad - 9,701 (3,604)

Jungle Cruise - 9,677 (3,334)

Cruella - 9,435 (3,376)

Free Guy - 8,348 (3,318)

 

Could reach BW volume of shows by preview time.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Am I right in saying Malignant doesn’t have previews so that $1.3m is for the full Friday opening day? 

 

That is correct.  Looking really bad in these areas unfortunately

[TwoMisfits]

13 hours ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	88	229	19301	1.19%

 

Comp

0.281x of Black Widow's First Day of Presales (3.71M)

0.170x of Black Widow T-22 (2.25M)

1.974x of The Suicide Squad T-22 (8.09M)

0.449x of Shang-Chi's First Day of Presales (3.95M)

 

Despite being a sequel, I do think Venom 2 isn't a perfect comp with the MCU titles, as those just simply put have a bigger fanbase and fan rush towards them IMO that Venom won't really get this early on. I do however think The Suicide Squad works here and so far, that is an...okay preview number, even if it would cause a decrease in OW. How big a decrease, and whether a decrease should be expected or disappointing or whatever is up to you.

 

Either way, not the greatest start in the world, but nothing that can't be improved upon.

 

Do you have an F9 comp?  I figure the audience demo will be very similar, if not the product...

[Eric is Quiet]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Do you have an F9 comp?  I figure the audience demo will be very similar, if not the product...

On its first day? 0.818x of F9, so about 5.81M

 

T-22, which is basically after two days of presales? 0.532x, meaning 3.78M