The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cmasterclay]

Who in the world is buying Venom tickets this far in advance? It didn't even get a big blast that tickets had gone on sale.

[Borobudur]

21 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Who in the world is buying Venom tickets this far in advance? It didn't even get a big blast that tickets had gone on sale.

Maybe people still figuring out just when will this be released given there are so many release dates out there. 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

That is correct.  Looking really bad in these areas unfortunately

Thanks for still sharing the info though. Yeh I think it’s going to do about $3m total this weekend, it’s being dumped with no push. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by Krissykins

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Who in the world is buying Venom tickets this far in advance? It didn't even get a big blast that tickets had gone on sale.

Yeah like I said, the first Venom wasn't selling well on its first day, even behind A star is born. I went back and it was even behind/neck and neck with A Star Is Born even close to as a week before their release.

 

Forgive my ignorance, but why isn't Venom 2 being comped with Venom 1?

Edited September 9, 2021 by Pinacolada

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah like I said, the first Venom wasn't selling well on its first day, even behind A star is born. I went back and it was even behind/neck and neck with A Star Is Born even close to as a week before their release.

 

Forgive my ignorance, but why isn't Venom 2 being comped with Venom 1?

 

I think b/c most pre-Covid comps haven't worked for any movie so far, so folks are using what they have from the Covid era even if it's not perfect, b/c it tends to be more accurate...

[Eric Loves Rey]

4 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah like I said, the first Venom wasn't selling well on its first day, even behind A star is born. I went back and it was even behind/neck and neck with A Star Is Born even close to as a week before their release.

 

Forgive my ignorance, but why isn't Venom 2 being comped with Venom 1?

Disregarding the fact that I don't have any Philly sales for Venom 1, presales are a whole different ballgame the farther you go back. Presales and advance tickets take up a bigger share of opening weekends and grosses every year, as more people are conditioned to buy tickets early and reserved seating is more common. Trends and patterns may not necessarily change (see the Jurassic World movies), but the volume of sales is very different. So because 2018 was three years ago, it's too far back to make comparisons worth a darn. You can really only compare movies from this year and maybe last year if you want a more concrete comparison.

 

As an example, Black Widow had more advance sales than Spider-Man: Homecoming in 2017, but it didn't come anywhere close to that movie's opening. This shows that Widow was more presales-driven and that films are more skewed towards advance sales

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Disregarding the fact that I don't have any Philly sales for Venom 1, presales are a whole different ballgame the farther you go back. Presales and advance tickets take up a bigger share of opening weekends and grosses every year, as more people are conditioned to buy tickets early and reserved seating is more common. Trends and patterns may not necessarily change (see the Jurassic World movies), but the volume of sales is very different. So because 2018 was three years ago, it's too far back to make comparisons worth a darn. You can really only compare movies from this year and maybe last year if you want a more concrete comparison.

 

As an example, Black Widow had more advance sales than Spider-Man: Homecoming in 2017, but it didn't come anywhere close to that movie's opening. This shows that Widow was more presales-driven and that films are more skewed towards advance sales

on one hand yes.. on the other black widow being a theatrical exlusive would likely mean a better multi..... so it could come close to homecoming then.....

[Porthos]

39 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Forgive my ignorance, but why isn't Venom 2 being comped with Venom 1?

 

Before Ontario reopened, for me locally at least, films released in the pandemic era had been approximately 18% to 21% off of what comps from the pre-pandemic era would suggest.  The Suicide Squad is just too small to have a reasonable comparison, and I have to do a ton of adjusting for something like Shang-Chi due to all of the differing theaters that were or were not being tracked by Yours Truly at the time, but even now it still looks to be off quite a bit.

 

*does some checking*

 

Yeah.  Still way off.

 

SC suggested comps:

 

KotM:       12.40m

TLK:         11.87m

TRoS:       11.71m

EG:           11.19m

CM:          11.17m

It 2:          10.62m

Pika:         10.43m

Aladdin:   10.17m

 

And so on and so on and so on.  At a quick glance, the only pre-pandemic era movie released recently which comes close is Frozen 2 (9.23m), but even though a MCU film will have a lot of ticket sales from kids, it shouldn't be quite the same as something like Frozen 2.  FWIW, TS4 would suggest 10.14m, so even that idea is a little shaky.

 

I could bring up more comps from before Captain Marvel, but the number of theaters I would have to adjust increases which makes it squirrelly to consider.  Add in what Eric said about changing pre-sale patterns and that would make it even more suspect even if I wanted to start roping in films released in 2018.

 

On a more practical level, I didn't start tracking Venom until the last minute (about three days out or so), so even if I  thought it was a good comp, I don't have current numbers to track it against.

 

So, for me at least, I haven't seen much evidence that the movie theater landscape has recovered to such a point that Thursday comps from before the pandemic and now are of much value.  Again, locally at least.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Porthos

[el sid]

Malignant counted today at 10am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 74 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 6 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 9 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 35 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 107 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 237.
Up 43% since yesterday.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Old (16.9M OW) had 500 sold tickets in 7 theaters,
Crawl (12.0) had 269 sold tickets in 7 theaters,
The Conjuring 3 (24.1M) had 1.435 in 7 theaters,
Don't Breathe 2 (10.6M) had 293 in 7 theaters,

The Boy II (5.8M) had 122 in 6 theaters
and The Night House (2.9M) had 90 sold tickets in 6 theaters.
The Forever Purge (12.6M) had on Thursday for Thursday 241 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

Hmm, I'm a bit perplexed. The overall number is really ok but the picture is completely uneven. Then I compared the single theater numbers to those of Don't Breathe 2 and they are very similar (101(NY and so on)/14/8/0/16/35/119).
Edit: Let's say 5M+ because of the other reports here where it looks worse.
 

The Card Counter had today 62 sold tickets for Friday in 3 theaters. But it looks way better today with 114 sold tickets. For comparisons, Zola (1.2M OW) had, also counted on its release day for its release day (June 30) exactly the same number = 114 sold tickets in 5 theaters.
Show Me the Father had only 10 sold tickets for Friday (also in 3 theaters). But maybe presales just don't matter here; e.g. Overcomer had one the worst presales I've ever seen (would be 22 sold tickets in the same 3 theaters) and opened to 8.1M.
But I still expect a sub 5M weekend for SmtF.

Cry Macho's tickets are „Available Soon“ and it will at least have showtimes in 5 of my 7 theaters (I guess in all).
Copshop's tickets are on sale already with shows in so far 6 of my 7 theaters.

Edited September 9, 2021 by el sid

[Porthos]

Already gnashing of teeth and rending of garments in the Halloween Kills thread, but in case folks aren't checking it out...

 

 

*crosses that off the list of films he would potentially track*

 

Has some decent implications for holdovers as well, I would think.  Popped it in here for obvious tracking implications. 

 

Is Peacock Premium at the very least, but it'll still have an impact I would think.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

4 hours ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

As an example, Black Widow had more advance sales than Spider-Man: Homecoming in 2017, but it didn't come anywhere close to that movie's opening. This shows that Widow was more presales-driven and that films are more skewed towards advance sales

The previews were only 14% down. PA took care of the rest. I doubt a SMH comp would have performed all that poorly if adjusted for locations that became reserved in between.   
 

More generally, audience behavior can’t become more PS heavy forever, there’s a mathematical limit here. I don’t personally believe that 2018-2021 is a long enough time window that makes comps expired all on its own — the concern is more pre-pandemic vs pandemic , and first entry vs sequel.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Legion of the Ten Crores

[TwoMisfits]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Already gnashing of teeth and rending of garments in the Halloween Kills thread, but in case folks aren't checking it out...

 

 

*crosses that off the list of films he would potentially track*

 

Has some decent implications for holdovers as well, I would think.  Popped it in here for obvious tracking implications. 

 

Is Peacock Premium at the very least, but it'll still have an impact I would think.

 

This is a surprise b/c Halloween Kills can't have cost anything...but then again, Peacock Premium is terrible and I already dumped my sub after my 3 free months, so maybe they know they need more draws than they have right now if they want to survive the coming digital platform purge in the next few years...

[narniadis]

19 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

This is a surprise b/c Halloween Kills can't have cost anything...but then again, Peacock Premium is terrible and I already dumped my sub after my 3 free months, so maybe they know they need more draws than they have right now if they want to survive the coming digital platform purge in the next few years...

Yup its terrible.... we didnt mess with it until Boss Baby - way cheaper with a newborn to pay the cheap price and let the kiddos watch at home. Not worth it even then overall. 

 

I assume they want more subs, but maybe there is an age demographic issue they are paying attention to as well? 

[WrathOfHan]

Card Counter: 10/70

 

 

Comps (using PTAs due to how low Card Counter's TC is):

 

16% of The Green Knight (20k)

91% of Zola (155k)

200% of Stillwater (140k)

 

140-160k sounds like the range to me!

Show Me the Father has sold nothing across its two shows, so that's all you need to know  

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

32

2151

1.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

45

2533

1.78%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 6 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
176	45	22498	0.78%	15	118

 

AMCs sold	143
Cinemarks sold	22
Regals sold	11
Harkins	0

 

Black Widow comp(18 hours): 3.13M

Shang-Chi comp(17 hours): 3.86M

 

This is a bit under 13 hours of sales. I have to get up early so it's the closest I'll get to the comps, but doesn't really matter anyways. Pretty good past 6 hours I'd say. I don't expect this to be as presale heavy as the MCU, even though it's also Marvel and Venom. Looks like it'll be more like F9. Should be pretty close to F9's T-21 tomorrow

Venom 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

35

2151

1.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

50

2533

1.97%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 17 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
201	25	22498	0.89%	15	118

 

AMCs sold	161
Cinemarks sold	23
Regals sold	14
Harkins	3

 

Black Widow day 2 comp: 3.36M

Shang-Chi day 2 comp: 3.44M

Suicide Squad day 2 comp: 5.35M

Fast 9 comp: 6.18M

 

Keep in mind, I counted the second day of Shang-Chi at like 11PM. So it had the benefit of all the evening buyers for day 2, which is why the comp went down. 

[Inceptionzq]

18 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-22 days Thursday: 105/18831 in 13 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp(17 hours): 2.41M

 

T-23 days Friday: 91/33138 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp(17 hours): 8.72M

Venom 2 Megaplex

 

T-21 days Thursday: 132(+27)/18831 in 13 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 2 comp: 2.38M

 

T-22 days Friday: 137(+46)/33138 in 14 theaters

 

Shang-Chi day 2 comp: 10.06M

 

Same thing here as in Denver. The Shang-Chi day 2 count was late. Also I'll probably only post SC comps for a couple more days before taking it out. Then I'll wait until T-10 days or something so there's not an overlap with the beginning of SC's presale run and the middle of Venom's run.

[WrathOfHan]

Malignant: 

1:15: 4/107

4:15: 2/107

7:15: 16/107

10:10: 10/107

Total: 32/428

 

Comps:

 

15% of AQP2 Previews (720k)

30% of Candyman Previews (570k)

43% of Old Previews (645k)

59% of Escape Room 2 Previews (710k)

 

Walkups better be good tomorrow, because I'm doubting a 1M opening day as it stands.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah like I said, the first Venom wasn't selling well on its first day, even behind A star is born. I went back and it was even behind/neck and neck with A Star Is Born even close to as a week before their release.

There seems to be something abnormal with that first day because Venom comfortably beat ASIB every single day after that. Probably Venom started sales at end of day.

7 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

Forgive my ignorance, but why isn't Venom 2 being comped with Venom 1?

Tracking of this thread has changed thrice since. Back then main tracking was Fandango pulse, then we relied on regional trackers and now we have evolved to our best version yet of tracking raw pre-sales data at nationwide.

 

We don't have comparable comp with Venom. Besides it don't matter, Venom 1 is 3 years back, presales trend changes a lot in time as that.

Edited September 10, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Pinacolada]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

There seems to be something abnormal with that first day because Venom comfortably beat ASIB every single day after that. Probably Venom started sales at end of day.

Tracking of this thread has changed thrice since. Back then main tracking was Fandango pulse, then we relied on regional trackers and now we have evolved to our best version yet of tracking raw pre-sales data at nationwide.

 

 

I see. Thanks for the responses guys 

[Eric Loves Rey]

On 9/8/2021 at 10:02 PM, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Malignant Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	130	8802	0.82%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 9

Total Seats Added Today: 838

Total Seats Sold Today: 65

 

Comp

0.086x of Conjuring 3 Wednesday Before Release (843.6K)

0.494x of Old Wednesday Before Release (741K)

4.062x of Reminiscence Wednesday Before Release (2.76M)

 

Okay, Venom time

Malignant Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	277	8802	3.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 147

 

Comp

0.107x of Conjuring 3 (1.06M)

0.324x of Old (486K)

5.036x of Reminiscence (3.42M)

 

Conjuring, despite being a sequel, is probably best to use here, since this was also a solo Friday debut for a horror release. But...yeah, this is not great. Sorry to all you Wan fans out there