The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Since I planned to track Shang Chi fri/sat, I thought it was worth to get thursday numbers just to see how the friday compares to thursday. 

 

Shang Chi Thursday

MTC1 - 61991/613764 903655.00 3418 shows

MTC2 - 50724/637690 543003.72 4422 shows

 

Well drop from yesterday at both the MTC seem almost on the dot(around 17.3%). Hoping the MTC share goes down further as overall drop yesterday was much better than what MTC indicated. Let us hope for thursday above 4m. 

fingers crossed...very good nonetheless

[Eric Loves Rey]

7 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Nothing to be sorry about. It's exactly what Wan wanted.

Sure...keep telling yourself that

 

[Blaze Heatnix]

13 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Malignant: 

1:15: 4/107

4:15: 2/107

7:15: 16/107

10:10: 10/107

Total: 32/428

 

Comps:

 

15% of AQP2 Previews (720k)

30% of Candyman Previews (570k)

43% of Old Previews (645k)

59% of Escape Room 2 Previews (710k)

 

Walkups better be good tomorrow, because I'm doubting a 1M opening day as it stands.

 

 

This movie will have more walkouts than walkups.

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	146	23960	24377	417	1.71%

 

Total Net Showings Added	19
Total Net Seats Added	2067
Total Seats Sold	69

 

Day 2 Comp

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	88.54		78	471		0/92	13512/13983	3.37%		6.58m
TSS	196.70		34	212		0/81	13740/13952	1.52%		8.26m
SC	57.44		172	726		0/99	15764/16490	4.40%		5.05m

COMP NOTE: The F9 Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955). Neither the TSS nor the SC Comp have been adjusted.

 

Day 2 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	31.75		224	1313		0/104	16873/18186	7.22%		4.39m
V2 (adj)	---		69	417		0/132	21800/22217	1.88%		---

COMP NOTE: The BW Comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: V2 (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

 

Regal: 117/6823 [1.71% sold] [+29 tickets]

 

=====

 

Nice?

 

Well, maybe, maybe not.  Decided to add an F9 comp after all.  Interestingly enough it barely budged.  TSS actually increased a smidge, which probably says more about TSS than V2.  Still:  Noted.

 

BW comp was practically unchanged as well (did dip ever so slightly) while the SC comp did in fact go down a small amount.   So... Huh.  Especially on the F9 comp.

 

All but one theater has now checked in, with the last one having its showtimes up but not yet for sale.  So they'll probably go up tomorrow.

 

Not much else to say. 

TSS comp depends on the final few days anyway. I am concerned that it's running below F9. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Sure...keep telling yourself that

James Wan has best track record for a Hollywood director in India in recent years and yet I didn't know until today morning that his next is releasing today. Something really wrong happened with this one.

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

James Wan has best track record for a Hollywood director in India in recent years and yet I didn't know until today morning that his next is releasing today. Something really wrong happened with this one.

Apparently he is the one who asked Warner to avoid anything revealing to promote this, show very little on trailers, using the same footage for commercials, and even the reviews dropping along with the movie to avoid spoilers spreading on twitter before the premiere (which seems to be true because reviews are way better than some WB movies this year).

 

I don't think this is a good excuse because they could've think in creative ways to promote this efficiently, but since WB is doing a poor job in traditional campaign this year, asking them to keep the movie secretive is a bad idea because instead they did nothing.

 

The weird thing is that they're doing the same shit with Cry Macho, actually i think is even worse for Clint movie, It comes out next Friday and the marketing is non-existent.

[Eric Loves Rey]

https://www.indiewire.com/2021/09/no-time-to-die-runtime-venom-1234663377/

 

Bond tickets launch September 17. Get ready!

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Apparently he is the one who asked Warner to avoid anything revealing to promote this, show very little on trailers, using the same footage for commercials, and even the reviews dropping along with the movie to avoid spoilers spreading on twitter before the premiere (which seems to be true because reviews are way better than some WB movies this year).

 

I don't think this is a good excuse because they could've think in creative ways to promote this efficiently, but since WB is doing a poor job in traditional campaign this year, asking them to keep the movie secretive is a bad idea because instead they did nothing.

 

The weird thing is that they're doing the same shit with Cry Macho, actually i think is even worse for Clint movie, It comes out next Friday and the marketing is non-existent.

Cry Macho's likely being dumped because its target audience of older people hasn't returned to theaters for anything in good numbers + the HBO Max release. But yeah, a new Clint movie with him in front of the camera coming out next week and literally no one is talking about it seems concerning.

 

Dear Evan Hansen tickets just went on sale as well for all the presale folks to keep track of FYI.

Edited September 10, 2021 by filmlover

[Eric Loves Rey]

 

Obviously these polls don't mean much in terms of box office, but it's always fun to throw these up here.

 

BTW December movies don't qualify for fall rankings, so don't freak out over no Spider-Man or Matrix

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 9/9/2021 at 9:56 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Show Me the Father	Jacksonville	5	11	1,499	14	1	0.93%
		Phoenix	5	10	1,368	9	4	0.66%
		Raleigh	5	11	1,314	1	0	0.08%
	Show Me the Father Total		15	32	4,181	24	5	0.57%
	The Card Counter	Jacksonville	1	1	88	0	0	0.00%
		Phoenix	2	2	95	17	15	17.89%
		Raleigh	2	2	116	7	4	6.03%
	The Card Counter Total		5	5	299	24	19	8.03%
T-1	Malignant (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	35	4,817	40	24	0.83%
		Phoenix	7	38	5,365	85	58	1.58%
		Raleigh	8	43	5,211	50	15	0.96%
	Malignant (Friday) Total		20	116	15,393	175	97	1.14%
	Queenpins (Friday)	Jacksonville	1	4	508	5	5	0.98%
		Phoenix	1	4	448	3	0	0.67%
		Raleigh	1	4	352	4	1	1.14%
	Queenpins (Friday) Total		3	12	1,308	12	6	0.92%

 

Pretty disappointing sales for SMtF and Queenpins.  Card Counter having as many sales as SMtF in only five showings is a little impressive.  Once again Malignant is the only new release that matters (although only slightly) for sales this weekend.

 

Malignant comps

Reminiscence - 2.4x (1.63m)

Forever Purge - 1.3x (1.72m)

Green Knight - .75x (565k)

 

Average - 1.3m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Malignant (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	38	4,980	94	54	1.89%
		Phoenix	7	46	5,875	228	143	3.88%
		Raleigh	8	43	5,211	141	91	2.71%
	Malignant (Friday) Total		20	127	16,066	463	288	2.88%
	Queenpins (Friday)	Jacksonville	1	7	667	14	9	2.10%
		Phoenix	1	4	448	12	9	2.68%
		Raleigh	1	4	352	20	16	5.68%
	Queenpins (Friday) Total		3	15	1,467	46	34	3.14%

 

Malignant OD comps

Reminiscence - 3.5x (2.38m)

Forever Purge - 2.08x (2.77m)

Green Knight - 1.3x (978k)

 

Average - 2.04m OD

 

OW comps (based on Jacksonville sales)

Reminiscence - 2.51x (4.89m)

Forever Purge - .49x (6.125m)

Protege - 1.15x (3.338)

 

Average - 4.785m

 

Don't feel confident to give Queenpins comps with only one theater to track in Jacksonville.  Likewise no good comps for SMtF with genre and low sales numbers.  It's sitting at 52/14683 for the weekend in Jacksonville.

[katnisscinnaplex]

US showtime sample for this weekend.

 

Movie	Theaters	Showtimes	Standard	PLF
Shang-Chi	3,445	101,701	94,089	7,612
Malignant	2,998	40,566	40,566	0
Candyman	2,865	36,865	36,865	0
Free Guy	2,992	33,487	33,403	84
Jungle Cruise	2,382	24,068	24,038	30
Paw Patrol	2,257	20,791	20,791	0
Show Me the Father	1,054	15,629	15,629	0
Don't Breathe 2	1,444	11,218	11,218	0
Respect	1,187	7,446	7,446	0
The Card Counter	542	6,895	6,895	0
Queenpins	150	1,784	1,784	0

[Eric Loves Rey]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-venom-let-there-be-carnage/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 9/10/21)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast Range	Domestic Total Forecast Range	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
9/17/2021	Blue Bayou				Focus Features
9/17/2021	Copshop	$2,000,000 – $7,000,000	$5,000,000 – $20,000,000	2,500	Open Road Films
9/17/2021	Cry Macho	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$27,000,000 – $47,000,000	3,300	Warner Bros. Pictures
9/17/2021	The Eyes of Tammy Faye				Disney / Searchlight Pictures
9/24/2021	Dear Evan Hansen	$6,000,000 – $15,000,000	$18,000,000 – $40,000,000		Universal Pictures
10/1/2021	The Addams Family 2	$12,000,000 – $22,000,000	$40,000,000 – $70,000,000		United Artists Releasing
10/1/2021	The Jesus Music				Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
10/1/2021	The Many Saints of Newark	$15,000,000 – $25,000,000	$40,000,000 – $80,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
10/1/2021	Venom: Let There Be Carnage	$45,000,000 – $65,000,000	$100,000,000 – $140,000,000		Sony Pictures / Columbia

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

At the high end of that prediction it seems pretty decent for Venom 2, does it not? Dropping from the first movie, but expected in a covid world.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:

At the high end of that prediction it seems pretty decent for Venom 2, does it not? Dropping from the first movie, but expected in a covid world.

Not if the legs are as bad as they seem to be projecting. 140 would definitely be a disappointment. Those legs seem crazy bad though even with NTTD. Let's see.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:

At the high end of that prediction it seems pretty decent for Venom 2, does it not? Dropping from the first movie, but expected in a covid world.

even pre covid there was never a guarantee that venom 2 would make as much as the first one...

[keysersoze123]

Shang Chi 2nd Friday @1130AM 

MTC1 - 61326/931737 910845.64 5237 shows

MTC2 - 33193/740302 389525.53 5172 shows

 

Thinking its headed towards 60% drop from last friday. But let us see how things go as real action wont start until evening EST time. 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi 2nd Friday @1130AM 

MTC1 - 61326/931737 910845.64 5237 shows

MTC2 - 33193/740302 389525.53 5172 shows

 

Thinking its headed towards 60% drop from last friday. But let us see how things go as real action wont start until evening EST time. 

from true friday you mean ?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

from true friday you mean ?

I look at only true friday numbers :-) I posted MTC finish for last friday and I am comparing with that number. 

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shang Chi 2nd Friday @1130AM 

MTC1 - 61326/931737 910845.64 5237 shows

MTC2 - 33193/740302 389525.53 5172 shows

 

Thinking its headed towards 60% drop from last friday. But let us see how things go as real action wont start until evening EST time. 

 

I assume you mean stand Friday minus previews.  That would mean just $8.28m and just a 104% jump.

 

If not it would be $11.8m which would be a fantastic Friday jump of 190%+

[john2000]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I look at only true friday numbers 🙂 I posted MTC finish for last friday and I am comparing with that number. 

i see..well as you said yourself is way too early to know for sure hopefully it does more than that