The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[raegr]

11 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Fathom Events - The Heart of Man packed for 7pm (and only) show in the local theaters that have it.  Wouldn't be shocked if it outdoes previews for both openers...

Ninjago hype, I feel it! 150M domestically is my prediction!

[Shawn Robbins]

3 hours ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Statistically speaking, they've been pretty awful at predictions ever since one of their top guys left 

 

We definitely hit a lull almost two years ago after a big shakeup in the company, but statistically speaking, you're wrong -- or you just haven't paid attention this year. Our new release accuracy has either remained flat or improved in 2017 compared to previous years. Not sure where you're getting your information from. Check your facts...er, sorry, "statistics".

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I've called him out before on this matter. You are HIGH, Shawn. HIGH.

If you're talking about mother!, I've actually been told by people I trust that we may very well be on the high-ish end. We'll see.

 

Either way, check your comments in the future, bud. You don't have to agree, but "fucking morons" is excessive given you clearly know my association with the site (not to imply that I "run" it, which I certainly don't). Our track record isn't as perfect as I'd like it to be because I set very high standards, but frankly, it's at least as good as any other outlet's.

[JB33]

@WrathOfHan your response?

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

We definitely hit a lull almost two years ago after a big shakeup in the company, but statistically speaking, you're wrong -- or you just haven't paid attention this year. Our new release accuracy has either remained flat or improved in 2017 compared to previous years. Not sure where you're getting your information from. Check your facts...er, sorry, "statistics".

If you're talking about mother!, I've actually been told by people I trust that we may very well be on the high-ish end. We'll see.

 

Either way, check your comments in the future, bud. You don't have to agree, but "fucking morons" is excessive given you clearly know my association with the site (not to imply that I "run" it, which I certainly don't). Our track record isn't as perfect as I'd like it to be because I set very high standards, but frankly, it's at least as good as any other outlet's.

 

ohhh shit.

[WrathOfHan]

18 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

We definitely hit a lull almost two years ago after a big shakeup in the company, but statistically speaking, you're wrong -- or you just haven't paid attention this year. Our new release accuracy has either remained flat or improved in 2017 compared to previous years. Not sure where you're getting your information from. Check your facts...er, sorry, "statistics".

If you're talking about mother!, I've actually been told by people I trust that we may very well be on the high-ish end. We'll see.

 

Either way, check your comments in the future, bud. You don't have to agree, but "fucking morons" is excessive given you clearly know my association with the site (not to imply that I "run" it, which I certainly don't). Our track record isn't as perfect as I'd like it to be because I set very high standards, but frankly, it's at least as good as any other outlet's.

Well yes, it was an excessive statement (apologies), but I really don't get why you guys are so low on this. It's selling pretty well on Pulse.

Edited September 14, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

The biggest con in your mother! predictions is the assumption that It will cripple its box office potential. I just don't see that happening. The films can coexist fine.

Edited September 14, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

I think mother!'s biggest problem is that the marketing campaign hasn't been very striking beyond the pitch of "JLaw starring in a wacky Aronofsky movie!" (and the latter's name holds zero recognition among mainstream moviegoers unless you say he directed Black Swan). WOM among said unsuspecting moviegoers probably won't be pretty either (the only Aronofsky films to get a Cinemascore grade are The Fountain, C-, and Noah, C, the former being ignored by audiences completely and the latter falling off the face of the Earth after a big opening weekend due to clearly weak WOM). IT will also be a higher priority for moviegoers still. It should do fine for its opening weekend, but I'm having a hard time seeing it break out beyond that niche audience that would've checked out a Lawrence/Aronofsky joint from the beginning.

[WrathOfHan]

Anyways, if mother! underperforms this weekend (below tracking; anything that's between 12-15M and y'all can hush), I'll be somewhat braced for it. I won't flake and cower if the film fails to meet my personal expectations like so many fanboys and haters do (that just happened this weekend!  ), but I'll be extremely disappointed. mother! just looks like such a unique and different film, and I'm glad one of the big six is releasing it.

[Ezen Baklattan]

oh hi @Shawn

 

Spoiler

I agree with your prediction. 

 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

 

We definitely hit a lull almost two years ago after a big shakeup in the company, but statistically speaking, you're wrong -- or you just haven't paid attention this year. Our new release accuracy has either remained flat or improved in 2017 compared to previous years. Not sure where you're getting your information from. Check your facts...er, sorry, "statistics".

But I wasn't referring to just the new releases 😉 You guys actually do an okay job there, given the extra data that's available to those outlets 

[Shawn Robbins]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Anyways, if mother! underperforms this weekend (below tracking; anything that's between 12-15M and y'all can hush), I'll be somewhat braced for it. I won't flake and cower if the film fails to meet my personal expectations like so many fanboys and haters do (that just happened this weekend!  ), but I'll be extremely disappointed. mother! just looks like such a unique and different film, and I'm glad one of the big six is releasing it.

I'm glad a major studio has taken it on as well. Personally, I think it looks really interesting and I plan on seeing it. I just wish they had released it in October instead of one week after It. FWIW, we were aiming between $8-12 million for the weekend prediction, which is why we landed on the $9.75m number.

3 hours ago, spaghetti! said:

oh hi @Shawn

 

  Hide contents

I agree with your prediction. 

 

Hey @spaghetti!!

2 hours ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

But I wasn't referring to just the new releases 😉 You guys actually do an okay job there, given the extra data that's available to those outlets 

I'll be the first to admit our holdover accuracy has been a little manic... which is ironic since I find them to be the easier part of forecasting most of the time. Since not many clients ever seem to care about holdovers unless they're still relevant/high earning films though, we've put more focus on the openers and future releases -- which were more of our weak spot until recently -- and it's inadvertently taken a little attention away from older films on the website articles. That's one reason you'll see just the top five more often going forward (like this week). I'd rather have no numbers than rushed ones to fulfill a publishing deadline until I or someone else on the team can devote more time to the extra 5-7 movies each week.

 

Then again, I'm so OCD about this stuff, maybe that'll change again before year's end.

[BadAtGender]

@Shawn!

[Krissykins]

So is mother! looking like a complete non starter at the box office? 

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

So is mother! looking like a complete non starter at the box office? 

For the most part, yeah.

[That One Girl]

4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

So is mother! looking like a complete non starter at the box office? 

 

It's opening in theaters, so no, it's not a non starter.

[Rumpot]

Fandango  this morning with a significant uptick in AA sales to about 15/min this am vs 5/min for Mother

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. It

2. Assassin

3. mother!

4. Kingsman

5. THB

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. It

2. Assassin

3. mother!

4. Kingsman

5. THB

Kingsman showing up this early seems like a really good sign.

[Rumpot]

FWIW my friend visited a colleague and her 7yr old is CRAZY for Ninjago.  Couldn't stop talking about it and the movie and says his friends are the same way.

[WrathOfHan]

Tonight at my theater:

 

7:00 AA: 9/124

7:00 mother!: 4/78

8:00 mother!: 0/78

8:15 AA: 0/78