The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

FWIW the lower end of their prediction for Encanto's total ($75M) would surpass the $66M of Spies in Disguise (the last animated movie not to be impacted at all by COVID) to become the biggest animated movie since Frozen II. All things considered, wouldn't set off too many alarms.

 

It actually surpasses Space Jam 2's $70.528M:)...unless we don't count mostly animated:)...

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

 

So, he's almost to my estimate - just a little more drop on the top of the backend:)...but $115M (I'd go $100M) to Free Guy - that's a good target b/c it's been mine:)...

11/19/2021

Ghostbusters: Afterlife

$40,000,000 – $60,000,000

-8%

$115,000,000 – $175,000,000

Edited November 12, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Joel M]

Is really 70something mil for Encanto good because it beat spies in disguise and Space Jam?

They say it's a theatrical exclusive, the first major animation movie since 2019 to do so. All the other potential big hitters of the last 2 years that could theoretically test where animation stands boxoffice-wise have been various levels of sacrificial lambs to streaming. 

[DAJK]

Belfast is crushing Spencer in my area

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Joel M said:

Is really 70something mil for Encanto good because it beat spies in disguise and Space Jam?

They say it's a theatrical exclusive, the first major animation movie since 2019 to do so. All the other potential big hitters of the last 2 years that could theoretically test where animation stands boxoffice-wise have been various levels of sacrificial lambs to streaming. 

 

Right now, Ghostbusters is getting 2.5 and 3 screens at my Cinemarks and Encanto is getting 1.5 screens and 2 screens in presale sets...so the theaters are showing more faith in Ghostbusters than Encanto...so yeah, for what Encanto is (an animated movie my kids say looks boring and "been done" - there's my secret GA again:) and the market it's releasing into, just setting a new Covid-animation mark + 10% would have to be seen as good.  I think it can be better, although I don't know how much better (and I'd probably put it under Ghostbusters just like the theaters are with their set profiles:)...

 

I mean, if Disney had tons of faith in it, it'd have a longer theatrical window...

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It actually surpasses Space Jam 2's $70.528M:)...unless we don't count mostly animated:)...

Yep, CGI hybrids like Space Jam and Tom & Jerry don't count.

 

7 hours ago, Joel M said:

Is really 70something mil for Encanto good because it beat spies in disguise and Space Jam?

They say it's a theatrical exclusive, the first major animation movie since 2019 to do so. All the other potential big hitters of the last 2 years that could theoretically test where animation stands boxoffice-wise have been various levels of sacrificial lambs to streaming. 

$75M for a Thanksgiving weekend Disney cartoon circa 2021 would be obviously dismal in normal circumstances (even Pixar's The Good Dinosaur a couple of years back made $120M+ and was considered a rare flop for them that was quickly forgotten about). But at a time when most movies are financial losers it is what it is.

[Porthos]

On 11/11/2021 at 10:34 PM, Porthos said:

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	116	16620	17356	736	4.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

57

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	142.08		52	518		0/87	14606/15124	3.43%		5.83m
SC	41.49		133	1774		0/111	15837/17611	10.07%		3.65m
V2	44.74		179	1645		0/173	26553/28198	5.83%		5.19m
NTTD	56.53		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		3.50m

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	49.50		91	1414		0/86	11869/13283	10.65%		3.68m
GA (adj)	---		59	700		0/102	14496/15196	4.61%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal:     162/6523 [2.48% sold] [+19 tickets]

Matinee:   34/1984 [1.71% | 4.62% of all tickets sold]

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	115	16561	17359*	798	4.60%

* NOTE: One theater adjusted its seat maps resulting in three more seats available region wide.

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	n/a*
Total Seats Sold Today	62

*NOTE: One showing was removed from a non-reserved seating theater.

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	144.04		362	554		0/87	14570/15124	3.66%		5.91m
SC	40.67		188	1962		0/111	15649/17611	11.14%		3.60m
V2	43.72		180	1825		0/173	26373/28198	6.47%		5.07m
NTTD	55.92		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		3.47m

 

T-6 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	50.70		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		3.77m
GA (adj)	---		57	757		0/101	14442/15199	4.98%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal:     178/6523 [2.73% sold] [+16 tickets]

Matinee:   43/1984 [2.17% | 5.39% of all tickets sold]

[titanic2187]

Enchanto passing 60m will be a great bar since the biggest animation in pandemic era was still the one that released in the past Thanksgiving.

 

Maybe 50m+ is the curse range for animation, we have four animation stuck at 50m+ since pandemic like Croods, Raya, Boss Baby 2 and AF2. Five if u include demon slayer. Enchanto's exclusive theater window would need to break this curse to prove the worthiness of exclusivity 

[EmpireCity]

10 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Right now, Ghostbusters is getting 2.5 and 3 screens at my Cinemarks and Encanto is getting 1.5 screens and 2 screens in presale sets...so the theaters are showing more faith in Ghostbusters than Encanto...so yeah, for what Encanto is (an animated movie my kids say looks boring and "been done" - there's my secret GA again:) and the market it's releasing into, just setting a new Covid-animation mark + 10% would have to be seen as good.  I think it can be better, although I don't know how much better (and I'd probably put it under Ghostbusters just like the theaters are with their set profiles:)...

 

I mean, if Disney had tons of faith in it, it'd have a longer theatrical window...

 

It also isn't just that they might have more faith in Ghostbusters, but important to point out that they simply have more room for Ghostbusters as it opens earlier and there isn't other movies crowding it out like Encanto has to deal with.  

[Eric Duncan]

If I can throw my two cents into what would be good for Encanto, I think even the lower end of BOP's tracking could be okayif only because kids movies just aren't performing well at all this year and that's kind of concerning to me. Tom and Jerry, Raya, Peter Rabbit, Boss Baby, Space Jam, Paw Patrol, Addams Family, all fell around the 40-70M range, and are still the biggest cream of the crop for kids titles (Jungle Cruise and Cruella are PG-13 and skew towards an older audience, so I don't think they count). Clifford is going to fall into that same range as well. The only two movies that will pass Croods 2's 58M are Space Jam and maybe Addams Family. That's not good at all.

 

Now it's true a lot of these movies were either terrible or weren't going to gross much in the first place, and I know almost all of these had a day-and-date functionality. And yeah, that stuff will impact their grosses. But even then, other movies had day-and-date and grossed way more than these movies, so...yeah, the bigger issue is less "families choosing to watch them at home" and more "families don't want to go to the movies at all".

 

So if Encanto did 75M...yeah, it still wouldn't be good, and would probably shrink the theatrical windows for Turning Red and Lightyear next year, but it's at least a sign of a pulse for animated family films, and I'm sure Encanto will sell a lot of dolls and soundtracks anyways. If Sing 2 continues the momentum, even if it barely gets to 90M or 100M, that would also be "good" for the medium and shows that young kids and families are slowly coming back.

 

Although at the end of the day, I do think even those grosses will make the big studios concerned and will put a good chunk of their animated/kids movie offerings as a day-and-date offering. You'll all bellyache over it, but parents will be happy about that kind of stuff.

[filmlover]

If there was one actual takeaway from D+ Day yesterday, it's that Disney is going all in on providing the family-friendly content that falls exclusively under their castle label for streaming this next year. The only three Disney-branded movies set to play in theaters in 2022 are all from the animated studios (the two Pixar movies plus whatever the Disney Animation title set for next Thanksgiving ends up being) while everything else that would normally get theatrical releases (Pinocchio, Disenchanted, Hocus Pocus 2) is being dumped as content for their streaming service.

Edited November 13, 2021 by filmlover

[Eric Duncan]

On 11/12/2021 at 7:32 AM, Eric the Big Red Dog said:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	717	15113	4.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp

0.680x of F9 T-7 (4.82M)

1.728x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (7.08M)

0.466x of Shang-Chi T-7 (4.1M)

0.691x of Venom 2 T-7 (8.01M)

0.679x of No Time to Die T-7 (4.28M)

 

Two bad days in a row here. Nothing too scary I suppose, but I am starting to hear some warning bells that Mickey's Law will continue its unstoppable reign.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	759	15113	5.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp

0.665x of F9 T-6 (4.72M)

1.646x of The Suicide Squad T-6 (6.75M)

0.454x of Shang-Chi T-6 (3.99M)

0.679x of Venom 2 T-6 (7.88M)

0.666x of No Time to Die T-6 (4.2M)

 

Yeah, I think this movie's dunzo. Mickey's Law kills another. Or I guess maybe we should change it to Feige's Law, because apparently people only like to watch Marvel movies anymore. Shit's bleak.

[Eric Duncan]

On 11/12/2021 at 7:45 AM, Eric the Big Red Dog said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-41 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	200	9354	2.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 39

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-40 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	210	9354	2.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

[filmlover]

Even with the schedule still trying to sort itself out as everything returns to normal, releasing a ghost-themed movie right around Thanksgiving when Halloween is a few weeks before just feels like a perplexing choice. Perhaps Sony should've swapped dates between this and Venom (which was likely opening to the same numbers no matter when it came out).

[Paul Verhoeven]

Any information if the Gucci pre sale is good?

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Even with the schedule still trying to sort itself out as everything returns to normal, releasing a ghost-themed movie right around Thanksgiving when Halloween is a few weeks before just feels like a perplexing choice. Perhaps Sony should've swapped dates between this and Venom (which was likely opening to the same numbers no matter when it came out).

 

Let There Be Carnage was helped by the whole October placement, I think.  @TwoMisfits was the first one to bring this up, but I think she's on to something when she commented that the goofy not-horror-but-still-sorta-kidsy-Halloweeny stylings of Venom helped it in calendar placement.

 

As for Ghostbusters....  At the risk of over-inflating some folks' predictions, there is the looming No Way Home.  I know a lot of the board simply doesn't like hearing this, but I do believe some folks look ahead and if they see a Mega Must See movie soon on the calendar, they'll skip going to a movie and "save up" to see that one instead.

 

If G:A underperforms, and we don't even know what that would be, it could be a sign that a wave is building for NWH.  Also could be a sign of not caring about this particular property, naturally or just not going out to specific types of movies in a pandemic.  But this phenomenon has been seen in the past and it really should be given at least some thought here.

 

NB:  I do think that for whatever reason Philly was extra strong out of the gate for G:A and folks there just bought tickets early, so it might not be doing quite as much as it would at this point in pre-sales.  We'll have to see what it does in Sacramento, Denver, and the markets @katnisscinnaplex tracks to see if it really is petering out or not.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Let There Be Carnage was helped by the whole October placement, I think.  @TwoMisfits was the first one to bring this up, but I think she's on to something when she commented that the goofy not-horror-but-still-sorta-kidsy-Halloweeny stylings of Venom helped it in calendar placement.

 

As for Ghostbusters....  At the risk of over-inflating some folks' predictions, there is the looming No Way Home.  I know a lot of the board simply doesn't like hearing this, but I do believe some folks look ahead and if they see a Mega Must See movie soon on the calendar, they'll skip going to a movie and "save up" to see that one instead.

 

If G:A underperforms, and we don't even know what that would be, it could be a sign that a wave is building for NWH.  Also could be a sign of not caring about this particular property, naturally or just not going out to specific types of movies in a pandemic.  But this phenomenon has been seen in the past and it really should be given at least some thought here.

 

NB:  I do think that for whatever reason Philly was extra strong out of the gate for G:A and folks there just bought tickets early, so it might not be doing quite as much as it would at this point in pre-sales.  We'll have to see what it does in Sacramento, Denver, and the markets @katnisscinnaplex tracks to see if it really is petering out or not.

FWIW looking around where I am a lot of main showtimes at popular locations for next weekend are close to empty for the most part (including IMAX/PLF theaters). Definitely wouldn't bury the movie yet since sales will naturally pick up the closer we get to release but it does seem like a sign that a breakout isn't happening here.

[Felipe]

Any info on how House of Gucci is doing? 

[XXR vs XXR]

 

With this coming Tuesday, do we think tickets may go on sale Wednesday or they would/should wait until after Ghostbusters? I'm still banking on the 22nd/23rd but I also thought the trailer would be coming then. 

 

[Inceptionzq]

I expect tickets to go on sale when the trailer drops