The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

I've pretty much factored this into my preview estimate, I think. Was expecting an early start with the runtime. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Tickets apparently drop at 12AM PT/3AM ET, but it’s probably placeholder time because that’s obviously a weird time to do so.

ohh, now is it though?

[charlie Jatinder]

I don't think it really matter. Just now that THU audience be spread out making occupancies lower (from say possibly 50% to 30-40%). It may hurt the preview numbers, if they have matinee prices.

 

After some time, it don't really matter you have showtimes at 6PM, 4PM or 10AM. 

 

If the demand was of $30M previews, aka 2M admits, its not gonna increase if we have an extra show.  BW had 23K shows in USA on 3.1k theaters per @katnisscinnaplex, probably mean 4M+ capacity, so capacity is there to have 2M admits by 5PM start as well.

Edited November 22, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

I’d expect a lot of occupancy issues and real sellouts with a 6PM start. The extra showing will really help admits, not just spread them out. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

I’d expect a lot of occupancy issues and real sellouts with a 6PM start. The extra showing will really help admits, not just spread them out. 

Even TRoS barely reached 50% IIRC for $39M. What was it? 6PM start or 7PM.

 

Edit: 450 Fan shows 5PM. Rest 6PM.

Edited November 22, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Even TRoS barely reached 50% IIRC for $39M. What was it? 6PM start or 7PM.

 

Edit: 450 Fan shows 5PM. Rest 6PM.

But 50% still has plenty occupancy issues. It’s not like 50% every show, areas of high interest can go completely full while others are at 20% or whatever. So with an extra time the 20% just go even lower from diffusion but the areas hitting caps see more real sales.

Edited November 22, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

But 50% still has plenty occupancy issues. It’s not like 50% every show, areas of high interest can go completely full while others are at 20% or whatever. So with an extra time the 20% just go even lower from diffusion but the areas hitting caps see more real sales.

Sure, but America don't suffer from lack of screens and the trends across country are generally universal. Big picture it hardly matters.

 

And its not like this is unprecedented, theaters accommodated 4.5M+ people for 3 hours Endgame with 6PM start. 2M+ is not really a BIG deal to accommodate. But as we saw with BW, early start may hurt the gross like Black Widow if they keep matinee rates.

Edited November 22, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

Encanto MTC2

 

Tuesday:

 

Showtimes: 1084 (+3)

Seats Sold: 6904/149393 (+1524)

$ Sales: 83641 (+18111)

 

Comps:

 

Addams Family 2: 1.21 million

Jungle Cruise: 2.06 million

 

 

Wednesday:

 

Showtimes: 2413 (+4)

Seats Sold: 16640/367406 (+4168)

$ Sales: 158664 (+38220)

 

Comps:

 

Addams Family 2: 8.10 million

Jungle Cruise: 9.40 million

 

 

Seems..fine? Idk how good the Wed comps will be vs Fridays though. Btw the pace numbers (+4168, etc.) are from a run I took late yesterday night, was too tired to even post it. 

Edited November 22, 2021 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Encanto MTC2

 

Tuesday:

 

Showtimes: 1084 (+3)

Seats Sold: 6904/149393 (+1524)

$ Sales: 83641 (+18111)

 

Comps:

 

Addams Family 2: 1.21 million

Jungle Cruise: 2.06 million

 

 

Wednesday:

 

Showtimes: 2413 (+4)

Seats Sold: 16640/367406 (+4168)

$ Sales: 158664 (+38220)

 

Comps:

 

Addams Family 2: 8.10 million

Jungle Cruise: 9.40 million

 

 

 

50m possible till Sunday?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

50m possible till Sunday?

I think it's within reach. Though I don't know how well the comps will do with a normal release vs Thanksgiving week release here. 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Menor said:

I think it's within reach. Though I don't know how well the comps will do with a normal release vs Thanksgiving week release here. 

This movie will test the appetite level for families during this COVID era BO. BO for Thanksgiving and BF will tell the tale. 2 years ago we had Frozen 2 during this weekend having a strong 2nd weekend. 

[Eric the Ape]

On 11/20/2021 at 10:53 PM, Eric Venkman said:

Encanto Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	169	6595	2.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp

0.335x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-3 (2.58M)

0.944x of Jungle Cruise T-3 (2.55M)

1.090x of Free Guy T-3 (2.4M)

Encanto Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	232	6595	3.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp

0.428x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-2 (3.3M)

0.975x of Jungle Cruise T-2 (2.63M)

1.040x of Free Guy T-2 (2.29M)

 

Just about all these previews would be pretty good, though I don't know if it's just an overperformance or not. Crossing my fingers here of course.

[Eric the Ape]

On 11/20/2021 at 11:00 PM, Eric Venkman said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-32 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	332	9642	3.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	437	9642	4.53%

Total Seats Sold Today: 105

 

Important to recognize here that all the sales for today are for the Early Access shows this coming Saturday. Which hey, at least indicates that people are eager to check it out I guess.

[Legion Again]

5day should be ~1.4-1.5x the 3day, I am ballparking 3day at ~18x previews, range 14-22 (probably lower multi if higher previews, yadda yadda). So if previews can do 2, which I bet they can, like 36 3day low 50s 5day? 30-40 for 42-60?

[charlie Jatinder]

45 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

50m possible till Sunday?

I am thinking 2 7.5 5 11 11 7 = 44

 

so yeah only need 12-13% over that

 

@Menor MTC 2 will overindex big during Thanksgiving opening being midweek.

 

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric the Ape]

If you look at the long weekend IM for Moana and Coco, that goes to about 31.6x and 31.7x respectively. Of course, there's been several years of frontloading, so Encanto probably won't be that leggy. The minimum should be Ralph Breaks the Internet's 5-Day IM of 22.3x its previews. I guess the midpoint would be like 26x, maybe 25x on the conservative side. So at a minumum of 2M previews, which could change sporadically, this should lead to a 50M 5-Day, though I could be completely wrong here. Ralph was 3 years ago, so maybe Encanto will be more frontloaded? It's all really muddy and confusing stuff.

[filmlover]

Encanto is selling extremely well around me. $40M+ for the 5-day should happen at this point at least.

[Legion Again]

The preview:true OD sales look more like a Moana/coco prev % than WIR, which was over 20% and the only sequel of the bunch. But trying to read too much from that is shaky.

[charlie Jatinder]

IMs give you messy result fellas. Let go of the false god and follow the one true god i.e. Daily trends.

Edited November 22, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Krissykins]

Any projections for House of Gucci and Resident Evil previews tomorrow?