The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

Trades lowballing? Well I nevah.

[keysersoze123]

Encanto will do 50-60 and gucci 25m+. Definite low ball here. 

 

Edit: This is just a prediction based on data from others. Dont take it as tracking data :-)

Edited November 23, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Eric Duncan]

15 hours ago, Eric Madrigal said:

Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	313	6302	4.97%

Comp

1.223x of Escape Room 2 T-1 (1.47M)

1.190x of Old T-1 (1.78M)

1.054x of Don't Breathe 2 T-1 (1.02M)

 

Huh. So the two theaters that are having Early Access shows for tonight (I actually didn't know this movie was getting it until tonight actually) make up about 22% of the sales, which is sizable, but not too bad. However, I feel like this could just simply be a case of Resi Evil fanboys getting to the first screenings as fast as possible rather than any strong interest. Still, it is a contrast to the mass concerns and predictions of floppage we had earlier today, though not that big a contrast.

Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	504	6302	8.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 191

 

Comp

0.872x of Escape Room 2 (1.05M)

0.590x of Old (885K)

0.492x of Don't Breathe 2 (474K)

 

Oof. Yeah, this is a fans-only affair it seems.

[Tinalera]

Toronto Ontario

Taken Tues Nov 23

 

House of Gucci

Wed nov 24

26 Theatres

102 shows 

 

Total sold 2216

Total remaining 23424

total seats 25460

Percentage 8.64

 

Sing 2 (special advanced screening)

Sat nov 27

6 theatres

6 shows

total sold 770

total remaining 376

total seats 1146

percentage 67.19

 

Resident Evil welcome to raccoon city

Wed nov 24

20 theatres

68 shows

total sold 212

total remaining 13078

total seats 13290

percentage 1.6

 

Resident evil not getting a lot of love here.

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Encanto (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	27	3,866	98	26	2.53%
		Phoenix	7	28	2,992	142	41	4.75%
		Raleigh	8	16	1,703	212	75	12.45%
	Encanto (Tue) Total		21	71	8,561	452	142	5.28%

 

Encanto comps

Boss Baby 2 - 1.75x (2.29m)

Paw Patrol - .322x (1.46m)

 

I'll go with 1.7m for Encanto

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Late	Encanto (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	28	3,908	184	86	4.71%
		Phoenix	7	28	2,992	185	43	6.18%
		Raleigh	8	19	1,940	338	126	17.42%
	Encanto (Tue) Total		21	75	8,840	707	255	8.00%

 

T-1 hour comps

Boss Baby 2 - 1.55x (2.03m)

Jungle Cruise - .789x (2.13m)

 

Well, just like that I'm jumping right back to 2m for previews

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Megaplex

 

T-1 days Tuesday(35 showings):  365(+105)/8973 in 15 theaters

 

Free Guy comp: 1.85M

 

T-2 days Wednesday(148 showings): 1701(+567)/39028(+7982) in 15 theaters

 

T-3 days Thursday(153 showings): 9214(+1904)/40367(+7009) in 15 theaters

 

T-4 days Friday(132 showings): 3973(+1139)/36364(+5481) in 15 theaters

 

T-5 days Saturday(118 showings): 1318(+453)/34004(+4150) in 15 theaters

 

Thursday is on the verge of being the having the most tickets sold for any day I've tracked at Megaplex. Black Widow's final Friday count was 9287.

Encanto Megaplex

 

T-1 day Wednesday(193 showings): 2380(+679)/47401(+8373) in 15 theaters

 

T-2 days Thursday(207 showings): 10760(+1546)/49297(+8930) in 15 theaters

 

T-3 days Friday(206 showings): 4798(+825)/49408(+13044) in 15 theaters

 

T-4 days Saturday(204 showings): 1653(+335)/48754(+14750) in 15 theaters

 

Thursday now has the most tickets sold of any movie I've tracked

Edited November 23, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Tuesday(46 showings): 688(+178)/6058(-231)

 

T-2 days Wednesday(105 showings): 1769(+493)/13973(+911)

 

T-3 days Thursday(106 showings): 998(+263)/13901(+522)

 

T-4 days Friday(77 showings): 1096(+218)/10403(+1011)

 

T-6 days Saturday(84 showings): 462(+68)/11039(+552)

Encanto Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 day Wednesday(121 showings): 2656(+887)/14957(+984)

 

T-2 days Thursday(126 showings): 1260(+262)/15530(+1629)

 

T-3 days Friday(139 showings): 1581(+485)/17444(+7041)

 

T-4 days Saturday(134 showings): 641(+179)/17020(+5981)

[katnisscinnaplex]

10 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
	House of Gucci (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	15	2,498	101	17	4.04%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,484	207	46	13.95%
		Raleigh	7	9	1,087	146	28	13.43%
	House of Gucci (Tue) Total		20	35	5,069	454	91	8.96%

 

House of Gucci comps

Stillwater - 3.027x (847k)

Respect - 3.027x (1.97m)

Evan Hansen - 2.33x (1.86m)

King Richard - .73x (1.41m)

 

I'd put Gucci in the 1.8m true previews, 2m with sneaks rolled in.

 

*House of Gucci has early access screenings - the comps do not include those

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Late	House of Gucci (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	15	2,498	185	84	7.41%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,484	253	46	17.05%
		Raleigh	7	9	1,087	232	86	21.34%
	House of Gucci (Tue) Total		20	35	5,069	670	216	13.22%

 

T-1 hour comps

Stillwater - 5x (1.4m)

Evan Hansen - 2.746x (2.2m)

Last Duel - 2.96x (1.04m)

Respect - 2.757x (1.79m)

 

Ugh, I just realized my Stillwater comp was pulling the wrong numbers this whole time.  Here are the last three days as they should have been:

 

T-3: 8.46x (2.37m)

T-2: 9.59x (2.69m)

T-1: 7.72x (2.16m)

T-0: 6.78x (1.9m)

T-1 hour: 5x (1.4m)

 

That being said, I feel like 1.8m is still the target here, with 2m being the full number with early shows.

[marveldcfox]

If this Resident Evil movie had released in 2002, it would have been a huge hit.

Edited November 24, 2021 by marveldcfox

[Eric Duncan]

18 hours ago, Eric Madrigal said:

Encanto Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	309	7222	4.28%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 627

Total Seats Sold Today: 77

 

Comp

0.387x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-1 (2.98M)

0.987x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (2.66M)

1.016x of Free Guy T-1 (2.24M)

 

Not really much else to say, it's in line with Coco/Moana numbers, and that's a good starting point. I don't have anything else to add to be frank.

Encanto Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	678	7222	9.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 369

 

Comp

0.533x of Cruella's Thu+Fri (4.1M)

0.860x of Jungle Cruise (2.32M)

0.969x of Free Guy (2.13M)

 

Not necessarily a final day I'm happy about, but my comps were generally higher than they were others, so this is likely more of a coming down to earth mode. And this should still lead to a solid O/U 50M for the 5-Day, which would be decent enough I suppose.

[Eric Duncan]

18 hours ago, Eric Madrigal said:

House of Gucci Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	21	366	4000	9.15%

 

Comp

1.743x of Dear Evan Hansen T-1 (1.39M)

0.559x of Newark Wednesday Before Release (1.17M)

0.159x of No Time to Die T-1 (1M)

6.000x of The Last Duel T-1 (2.1M)

 

It's a bit all over the place in terms of comps, though part of it is just how dire the year has been for adult-oriented titles. Knives Out's IM for the 5-Day would translate to 25x, though it also had early access screenings. Queen and Slim meanwhile...didn't have previews at all. Yeah, this is hard to extrapolate, but the higher comps make me hopeful, and it would ensure the best opening for an adult-oriented title this year, even though I still think Lady Gaga is helping to broaden the appeal to 18-34s.

House of Gucci Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	601	4113	14.61%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 113

Total Seats Sold Today: 235

 

Comp

1.920x of Dear Evan Hansen (1.54M)

0.692x of Newark (1.45M)

0.206x of No Time to Die (1.3M)

6.133x of The Last Duel (2.15M)

 

Now this...this is a good note to end things on.

[DAJK]

4 hours ago, Tinalera said:

Gucci is doing pretty steady in Toronto-Ill have to get some updated numbers later, but seems there's appetite for it. Can see being one of those films that gets some fashion trends going-going back to 80-ish fashions I think will get some eyes. 

 

That is interesting-for all the flooding that happened over there in BC, people still want to get to theatres to see films. 

Certain markets are certainly being hit harder than others (I’ve heard stories of Managers being forced to sleep in their movie theaters because they are trapped by the floods). But in places where day-to-day life is mostly “normal” I feel like escapist entertainment is in pretty high demand right now.

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/22/2021 at 4:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Tuesday(46 showings): 688(+178)/6058(-231)

Encanto Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 days Tuesday(49 showings): 1779(+1091)/6367(+309)

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/22/2021 at 4:05 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Megaplex

 

T-1 days Tuesday(35 showings):  365(+105)/8973 in 15 theaters

 

Free Guy comp: 1.85M

Encanto Megaplex

 

T-0 days Tuesday(36 showings):  1308(+943)/9150(+177) in 15 theaters

 

Free Guy comp: 2.43M

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.08M

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/22/2021 at 3:59 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Tuesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

55

728

7.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

38

538

7.06%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
292	76	6814	4.29%	15	45

 

AMCs sold	184
Cinemarks sold	47
Regals sold	35
Harkins sold	26

 

Free Guy comp: 1.49M

Jungle Cruise comp: 1.70M

Encanto Tuesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

94

728

12.91%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

109

538

20.26%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
819	527	7194	11.38%	15	51

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 380

 

AMCs sold	401
Cinemarks sold	154
Regals sold	152
Harkins sold	112

 

Ghostbusters comp: 1.83M

Free Guy comp: 1.68M

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.12M

 

1.9M seems right

Edited November 24, 2021 by Inceptionzq
Initially said 2M but brought it down a bit to account for lower ATP

[Ronin46]

 

 

 

BoPro Predictions

 

3 day, 5 day, running total

 

Encanto	Walt Disney Pictures	$39,300,000	$56,400,000	$56,400,000	3,980	NEW
Ghostbusters: Afterlife	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$26,200,000	$37,900,000	$91,100,000	~4,315	-40%
House of Gucci	United Artists Releasing	$17,400,000	$26,900,000	$26,900,000	3,441	NEW
Eternals	Disney / Marvel Studios	$8,000,000	$11,400,000	$150,300,000	3,165	-28%
Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$7,400,000	$11,500,000	$11,500,000	~2,800	NEW
Clifford the Big Red Dog	Paramount Pictures	$6,500,000	$9,000,000	$45,100,000	3,292	-20%
King Richard	Warner Bros. Pictures	$4,100,000	$6,100,000	$12,800,000	3,302	-24%
Dune	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,900,000	$2,700,000	$101,800,000	~1,200	-40%
Venom: Let There Be Carnage	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$1,800,000	$2,600,000	$210,100,000	~1,500	-38%
No Time to Die	MGM / EON / United Artists Releasing	$1,700,000	$2,400,000	$157,900,000	1,342	-39%
Belfast	Focus Features	$1,600,000	$2,100,000

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local

 

Encanto (48/1242)

Frozen 2: $1.34m
AdamsF2: $1.76m
Freefall: $1.92m
RGW: $3.84m
Ghostbuster AL: $3.04m

 

All over the place.  Frozen was obviously more presale heavy and in the before times.  
RGW sold 4 tickets so it's just not worth comping.
GB was far more geek and franchise heavy even if also family orientated.  

 

I guess about $2m (avg w/o RGW is 2.015)

 

HOG (56/510)

Knives Out: $1.15m (but also had w/e early previews)
Downton Abbey: $2.265m
Ford v Ferrari: $1.80m
Green Knight: $2.025m
Duel: $2.45m
Last Night In Soho: $2.8m

Prev avg: $2.27m (excluding KO).  I wish I had Friday Hustler numbers. But it's 46 on a Tues with $2.5m suggest Gucci should be lower

Res Evil:RC  (19/795)

Don't Breaathe 2: $1.22m
Candyman: $.61m
Halloween Kills: $.55m
Antlers: $1.4m

 

A tale of two extremes.  Avg would be $.945m but DB opened when pre-sales were lower and Antlers only sold 5 tickets here so the comp is bad.  I'm more inclined to use the CM & HK numbers for about 600k

Edited November 24, 2021 by TalismanRing

[misterpepp]

No idea if this is already known or not, but West Side Story showtimes are popping up at some chains, with start times at 5pm on Thur 12/9. Assuming it's going on sale soon.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, datpepper said:

No idea if this is already known or not, but West Side Story showtimes are popping up at some chains, with start times at 5pm on Thur 12/9. Assuming it's going on sale soon.

Not surprised by the early start time, its target audience is unlikely to show up for shows at a later time and the 156 minute running time puts a limit on the number of shows per day.

[Legion Again]

Even WSS is 156 mins????   
 

Somebody needs to graph avg runtime of big budget movies by quarter, I bet 2021 Q4 will stick out like a sore thumb.