The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

FIFY

Setting yourself for disappointment but won't be impossible I guess.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Setting yourself for disappointment but won't be impossible I guess.

 

If it can't do that, then it doesn't even need to release. Cancel it and move on! 

 

[Eric the Ape]

On 11/12/2021 at 8:06 AM, Eric Venkman said:

For Non-Disney titles, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Disney films can do poorly, but those aren't because of impacts by Mickey's Law. Likewise, the Sony Marvel movies are oftentimes exempt, because the masses are too stupid to realize they aren't from Disney. DC movies also arguably fit into that camp (I have to explain to my Dad like once a month that Batman or Aquaman or Wonder Woman aren't Marvel characters)

 

I coined the phrase back in 2019, but you can argue that Mickey's Law's impacts go as far back as 2016. I'm assuming Bob Iger was bitter Universal won the studio share in 2015 despite all the hits they had and created this law to spite all the other studios.

@SchumacherFTW See Afterlife did open well, but it still opened below the Feig movie. If Mickey's Law didn't exist, the film would have opened above it. Mickey's Law works in shifty, mysterious ways.

 

[CJohn]

Silly people talking about the Mickey's Law. We live in the Rothman's Law era now. Disney has nothing on the new KING of theaters. 

[Inceptionzq]

Some No Way Home showtimes going up on Megaplex, 3PM previews. Tickets apparently drop at 12AM PT/3AM ET, but it’s probably placeholder time because that’s obviously a weird time to do so.

[Eric the Ape]

4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Some No Way Home showtimes going up on Megaplex, 3PM previews.

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Some No Way Home showtimes going up on Megaplex, 3PM previews. Tickets apparently drop at 12AM PT/3AM ET, but it’s probably placeholder time because that’s obviously a weird time to do so.

 

That is gonna make a $100M 1st day much more possible if true...unless it's too early to actually draw anyone on a school/work day, although my college kid will be done exams, so maybe it's college kid matinee:)...

[XXR vs XXR]

24 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Some No Way Home showtimes going up on Megaplex, 3PM previews. Tickets apparently drop at 12AM PT/3AM ET, but it’s probably placeholder time because that’s obviously a weird time to do so.

 

If previews are legit 3PM across the board, then I'm gonna need to update my contest numbers and join the $100M OD club lol

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/20/2021 at 3:23 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Tuesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

25

728

3.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

32

538

5.95%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
181	27	6814	2.66%	15	45

 

AMCs sold	119
Cinemarks sold	39
Regals sold	17
Harkins sold	6

 

Free Guy comp: 1.54M

Jungle Cruise comp: 1.86M

Encanto Tuesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

28

728

3.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

35

538

6.51%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
216	35	6814	3.17%	15	45

 

AMCs sold	132
Cinemarks sold	37
Regals sold	21
Harkins sold	26

 

Free Guy comp: 1.52M

Jungle Cruise comp: 1.69M

 

Comps have been dropping the past 2 days, but that's probably because their T-3 and T-2 weren't on the weekend like it is for Encanto.

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/20/2021 at 3:26 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Megaplex

 

T-3 days Tuesday(35 showings):  197(+35)/8973 in 15 theaters

 

T-4 days Wednesday(106 showings): 923(+153)/31046 in 15 theaters

 

T-5 days Thursday(114 showings): 6516(+870)/33358(+810) in 15 theaters

 

T-6 days Friday(100 showings): 2299(+572)/30883 in 15 theaters

 

T-7 days Saturday(94 showings): 702(+206)/29854 in 14 theaters

Encanto Megaplex

 

T-2 days Tuesday(35 showings):  260(+63)/8973 in 15 theaters

 

T-3 days Wednesday(106 showings): 1134(+211)/31046 in 15 theaters

 

T-4 days Thursday(114 showings): 7310(+794)/33358 in 15 theaters

 

T-5 days Friday(100 showings): 2834(+535)/30883 in 15 theaters

 

T-6 days Saturday(94 showings): 865(+163)/29854 in 14 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/20/2021 at 3:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-3 days Tuesday(44 showings): 410(+96)/6289

 

T-4 days Wednesday(93 showings): 959(+254)/13062(+132)

 

T-5 days Thursday(95 showings): 620(+144)/13379(+142)

 

T-6 days Friday(70 showings): 685(+130)/9392(-112)

 

T-7 days Saturday(80 showings): 320(+47)/10487(+258)

Encanto Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 days Tuesday(44 showings): 510(+100)/6289

 

T-3 days Wednesday(93 showings): 1276(+317)/13062

 

T-4 days Thursday(95 showings): 735(+115)/13379

 

T-5 days Friday(70 showings): 878(+193)/9392(-112)

 

T-6 days Saturday(80 showings): 394(+74)/10487(+258)

[Inceptionzq]

30 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

although my college kid will be done exams, so maybe it's college kid matinee:)...

Yeah it’ll definitely be nice for a lot of college kids. I’ll be done with my exams before then, so definitely a matinee Thursday preview for me.

[Porthos]

 

On 11/18/2021 at 9:36 PM, Porthos said:

 

Not gonna lie, runtime is the exact reason why I mentally give at least a 5% chance at 2pm to 3pm shenanigans. 

 

(the other being Sony looking at the time of year it is and just deciding to go YOLO)

 

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Some No Way Home showtimes going up on Megaplex, 3PM previews. Tickets apparently drop at 12AM PT/3AM ET, but it’s probably placeholder time because that’s obviously a weird time to do so.

 

Called it.

 

(okay wasn't my joke about 2pm, but 3pm was looking in-play considering Sony put a 1:35 movie at 4pm just recently)

Edited November 21, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Eric Venkman said:

 

Yeah, gonna make a hash out of my comps.  Already straining somewhat at 4pm previews so I'll have to give a think about what to do for 3pm.

 

Might take my main sample from 3:30pm to 4:30-ish pm instead of a 3:50 to 4:30/4:50 sample* I normally do for 4pm previews, while making sure I get all the seat counts from the 3pm showtimes.

 

*variable length due to how many showtimes I have to check.

 

Thanks bunches, Sony.

[XXR vs XXR]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Called it.

 

(okay wasn't my joke about 2pm, but 3pm was looking in-play considering Sony put a 1:35 movie at 4pm just recently)

 

Industry Question: At what point is it no longer "previews" and they're just moving the opening day to Thursday? Before noon? 

 

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Yeah, gonna make a hash out of my comps.  Already straining somewhat at 4pm previews so I'll have to give a think about what to do for 3pm.

 

Might take my main sample from 3:30pm to 4:30-ish pm instead of a 3:50 to 4:30/4:50 sample* I normally do for 4pm previews, while making sure I get all the seat counts from the 3pm showtimes.

 

*variable length due to how many showtimes I have to check.

 

Thanks bunches, Sony.

I would keep it same time. It should not matter that much considering its still not holidays yet and its thursday. I dont think this will pull in a endgame and sellout all shows(we are not in an environment where entire audience base is crazy to see it early). We will know in 8 days time how the PS is looking. I hope its interesting for sure. 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would keep it same time. It should not matter that much considering its still not holidays yet and its thursday. I dont think this will pull in a endgame and sellout all shows(we are not in an environment where entire audience base is crazy to see it early). We will know in 8 days time how the PS is looking. I hope its interesting for sure. 

 

Most of my consideration is how long it takes to run the sample. So if it takes about 60-75 minutes (which I suspect it will), I usually add a few minutes on both the start and end.  If this was a 4pm start I probs would have done something like 3:45-4:45 or 3:35-4:50 instead of a 45 minute sample like 3:50-4:35.  So 3:30-4:45, while making sure I get all of the pre-3:30 seat counts, isn't really that big of a deal.

 

Annoying?  yes.  Insurmountable problem?  Eh, not really.

 

[SpiderByte]

3pm previews make my prediction of 100 opening day even more possible so I hope it's true.

[SpiderByte]

3 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Some No Way Home showtimes going up on Megaplex, 3PM previews. Tickets apparently drop at 12AM PT/3AM ET, but it’s probably placeholder time because that’s obviously a weird time to do so.

Yeah, Endgames were 8 am EST so that ain't happening. It'll still be early for west coast folks though.

[Legion Again]

Mmm, later start than expected. May have to pull my preview nums down.