The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FantasticBeasts]

@EmpireCity

Would you mind giving us an OW prediction for WW?

I really value your opinion.

[grim22]

About half the Regal/Edwards still dragging their feet on the overall weekend showtimes (there is actually a Regal theater with all 4 announced shows sold out, and they still haven't added additional preview shows). Must be suffering from MD weekend hangover.

 

Current Wonder Woman sellout count in SoCal:

 

31 sellouts / 337 showtimes

 

Going to guess it gets to 375 showtimes or so before the end (+/- 10 showtimes). Lots of showtimes close to sellouts which I haven't counted here, reserved seating tempers sellouts a lot as well.

 

Roughly same point in time comps:

 

F8 (which skews way too much to SoCal) at the same point in time

On 4/11/2017 at 11:03 PM, grim22 said:

 

F8 sellout count

 

6 sellouts/323 showtimes.

 

This is pretty bad compared to F7, the count above by Tele was before the showtime escalation on Tuesday. Final Furious 7 count was FURIOUS 7 had 55 sellouts / 471 showtime

 

I would venture a guess that Furious 7 had 400+ showtimes on Tuesday. Probably looking at a 10-12M previews as things stand.

 

 

GOTG2:

On 5/2/2017 at 3:25 PM, grim22 said:

Updated sellout count with a few Regal theaters still to put up full times

 

7 sellouts / 350 showtimes

 

Will do a final count tomorrow evening, Thursday evening count if time permits. But will guess that it ends around 410-420 showtimes

 

 

 

Suicide Squad:

On 8/2/2016 at 6:38 PM, grim22 said:

 

 

 

With Regal and Edwards theaters still to declare their full showtimes, the sellout count for Suicide Squad previews in the LA area are

 

31 sellouts / 365 showtimes

 

When Regal and Edwards theaters declare all times by tomorrow afternoon, this will go to over 400

 

Final comps

 

On 5/25/2017 at 2:50 PM, grim22 said:

SoCal showtimes:

 

Pirates 5: 0 sellouts / 265 showtimes

 

Comps:

Apocalypse: 295 showtimes / 13 sellouts

Alice: 235 showtimes / 0 sellouts

F8: 335 showtimes / 12 sellouts

Guardians 2: 413 showtimes / 24 sellouts

CA3: 22 sellouts / 607 showtimes

BVS: 34 sellouts / 578 showtimes

ULTRON: 28 sellouts / 700 showtimes

SUICIDE SQUAD: 41 sellouts / 455 showtimes

MOCKINGJAY 1: 21 sellouts / 435 showtimes

FURIOUS 7: 55 sellouts / 471 showtimes

MAN OF STEEL: 48 sellouts / 220 showtimes (midnights only)

ROGUE ONE: 69 sellouts / 658 showtimes

 

 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

About half the Regal/Edwards still dragging their feet on the overall weekend showtimes (there is actually a Regal theater with all 4 announced shows sold out, and they still haven't added additional preview shows). Must be suffering from MD weekend hangover.

 

Current Wonder Woman sellout count in SoCal:

 

31 sellouts / 337 showtimes

 

Going to guess it gets to 375 showtimes or so before the end (+/- 10 showtimes). Lots of showtimes close to sellouts which I haven't counted here, reserved seating tempers sellouts a lot as well.

 

Roughly same point in time comps:

 

F8 (which skews way too much to SoCal) at the same point in time

 

GOTG2:

 

Suicide Squad:

 

Final comps

 

 

What would your estimate for the OW be based on this information? 

 

PS I've been working on a NYC one but I'm gonna post it tomorrow night just so it's available for future films going forward. 

[grim22]

Just now, Nova said:

What would your estimate for the OW be based on this information? 

 

PS I've been working on a NYC one but I'm gonna post it tomorrow night just so it's available for future films going forward. 

 

OW - god alone knows. Previews - would say 11-15M?

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

OW - god alone knows. Previews - would say 11-15M?

Yea I have it at $13M for the previews with it having a good IM and reaching $110-115M for the weekend now. 

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, Nova said:

Yea I have it at $13M for the previews with it having a good IM and reaching $110-115M for the weekend now. 

 

8.8x?  That would be more than a good multiplier for June

 

 

Edited May 31, 2017 by TalismanRing

[EmpireCity]

46 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

@EmpireCity

Would you mind giving us an OW prediction for WW?

I really value your opinion.

 

I think it is going to break out.  $100m+ with a breakout to who knows what.  

[raegr]

Pulse:

1) WW

2) Pirates

3) CU

4) WW

5) Guardians

 

MT: 

1) Pirates (25%)

2) WW (20%)

3) David Gilmour Live At Pompeii (13%)

4) Guardians (8%)

5) Baywitch (7%)

[raegr]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

I think it is going to break out.  $100m+ with a breakout to who knows what.  

Can we get married? 

[EmpireCity]

I'm a bit worried about early and mid-June.  What looked like it could be a stellar June isn't looking great.  

 

Wonder Woman is going to break out, but Pirates of the Caribbean / Baywatch / Alien are all going to fall apart.  

 

Then the following week The Mummy is going to under perform and get trashed.  It Comes At Night is great, but it is not a commercial film on any level and will draw general audience hate almost the same as The Witch did.  Rough Night is mediocre at best and isn't that funny.  Transformers is on the same path that Pirates is on. 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I'm a bit worried about early and mid-June.  What looked like it could be a stellar June isn't looking great.  

 

Wonder Woman is going to break out, but Pirates of the Caribbean / Baywatch / Alien are all going to fall apart.  

 

Then the following week The Mummy is going to under perform and get trashed.  It Comes At Night is great, but it is not a commercial film on any level and will draw general audience hate almost the same as The Witch did.  Rough Night is mediocre at best and isn't that funny.  Transformers is on the same path that Pirates is on. 

Ya wanna know something funny? A month ago I thought June was a blood bath with all these films and August was a wasteland and now I'm thinking June is the one that's gonna have a ton of flops whereas August is gonna have a few surprises in it. 

 

I wonder if June of next year will  behave similarly or if that one will indeed be a blood bath lol 

Edited May 31, 2017 by Nova

[filmlover]

June 2018 looks wild.

[Nova]

11 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

8.8x?  That would be more than a good multiplier for June

 

 

Yea. I'm accounting for the fact that it's going to be more backloaded similar to how Deadpool was but im also taking into account that DP had a Sunday holiday so if it breaks out and it's preview number is say $13M, I have it going up to $110-115M as its breakout number. If the preview number is higher well then some adjustments will be made lol 

[MCKillswitch123]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I'm a bit worried about early and mid-June.  What looked like it could be a stellar June isn't looking great.  

 

Wonder Woman is going to break out, but Pirates of the Caribbean / Baywatch / Alien are all going to fall apart.  

 

Then the following week The Mummy is going to under perform and get trashed.  It Comes At Night is great, but it is not a commercial film on any level and will draw general audience hate almost the same as The Witch did.  Rough Night is mediocre at best and isn't that funny.  Transformers is on the same path that Pirates is on. 

 

I don't think The Witch had that much audience hate. If it had, it wouldn't have dropped under 50% in its 2nd weekend (granted, it only opened to 8.8M, there have been movies that opened to less and still had bigger 2nd drops), and grossed 25M on an 8.8 opening, but still, I do understand that it was very unconventional/not expected for the general audience, yeah.

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

June 2018 looks wild.

Memorial Day Weekend 2018 all the way through June is just one huge film after another. It really looks wild. It's like the hunger games movie style lol 

[nomyth]

I think Cars 3 and All Eyez are gonna do more than people expect. That could be a pretty huge weekend.

[filmlover]

Just now, nomyth said:

I think Cars 3 and All Eyez are gonna do more than people expect. That could be a pretty huge weekend.

The marketing campaign for All Eyez on Me has been too muted and doesn't really give anyone who isn't a Tupac fan much of a reason to see it. It feels like another Get on Up tbh.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

I don't think The Witch had that much audience hate.

 

C-minus cinemascore, not far from Blair Witch 2016 D+ and like you said it had only opened to 8.8m and had great/excellent press to support it and still didn't triple is small OW.

 

Hate is maybe a strong word, but very mixed at best (my audience match that cinemascore score, with some vocal reaction at the end)

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, nomyth said:

I think Cars 3 and All Eyez are gonna do more than people expect. That could be a pretty huge weekend.

I think All Eyez can have a decent OW but right now I'm looking at the weekend and seeing a bunch of films that will post some really mediocre results. Cars 3 will do decent because it's an animated film, Rough Night may break out but again I expect like $15M for it, 47 meters down....I've always questioned why they gave it a theatrical release after it was already released on home video so I'm expecting like $5-8M for it at best. All Eyez can be the wildcard but I'm not expecting more than say $11-13M for it. The Book of Henry is another sub $10M opener. 

 

 

Edited May 31, 2017 by Nova

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Yea. I'm accounting for the fact that it's going to be more backloaded similar to how Deadpool was but im also taking into account that DP had a Sunday holiday so if it breaks out and it's preview number is say $13M, I have it going up to $110-115M as its breakout number. If the preview number is higher well then some adjustments will be made lol 

 

In addition to V-Day and the Mon holiday softening Sun, Deadpool was in February.  Most colleges are out now and a significant amt of lower grade schools so higher previews to w/e rations. 

 

This is shown by GOTG2 which not only opened higher but had a greater Thur to w/e ratios than the first in August.  That did 8.39  WW is significantly more known property and DC films tend to be slightly more preview to  w/e front loaded than MCU so I'd think that would be the upper level.

 

Is the T-Mobile discount just for previews or the entire w/e?  If the former that might skew previews heavier as well.