The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

Both Variety and Hollywood Reporter have given Megan Leavey positive reviews with a special emphasis on how emotional it is. I think this could be a summer surprise, especially with the heartland.

[The Panda]

34 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Not a chance in a billion.

People forgot very early how huge the buzz and pre sales were for Batb.

I think it was already #1 on Movietickets and by a big margin by its last Monday of release.

 

Yeah, BATB was huge and I definitely wouldn't expect WW to match it.

[nomyth]

MT

 

1. POTC - 37.6%

2. GOTG2 - 12.9%

3. Baywatch - 10.3%

4. WW - 6.1%

5. AC - 5.5%

[a2k]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

There's a few superhero films that have gotten a three multiplier. The Avengers was one of them. I'm not saying is going to but I'm saying you can't rule it out at this point. What if its as well received as TDK?

 

Yeah. GOTG1 did bloody 3.5x with an ow not far from 100. So WONDR doing 3x with 120-130 ow cannot be ruled out.

[keysersoze123]

Weekdays in June are way stronger than May or March. With strong week 2/3 holds 3x can happen. JW did 3.1x in June

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. POTC

2. WW

3. GOTG

4. Baywatch

5. Alien

Edited May 30, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[babz06]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Both Variety and Hollywood Reporter have given Megan Leavey positive reviews with a special emphasis on how emotional it is. I think this could be a summer surprise, especially with the heartland.

No one knows that its coming out though. Kate Mara is not exactly a marquee name ,her last filmed opened with 2m. 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, babz06 said:

No one knows that its coming out though. Kate Mara is not exactly a marquee name ,her last filmed opened with 2m. 

They're mostly marketing it in Middle America in all likelihood (the story about the bond between a U.S. marine and her K-9 dog? They should probably be offering Kleenex at every theater). The theater count is only 1,000 for that weekend fwiw.

[Krissykins]

La Times says industry tracking is $80-90m for Wonder Woman. 

[Eric Duncan]

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/spider-man-homecoming-swings-to-top-of-social-media-buzz-1202447751/

 

The usual ComScore thing isn't up (either that, or they haven't updated, and it will be put up later) but the article states:

 

-175K social media conversations for Spider-Man: Homecoming last week, 1.87 million cumulative convos

-120K for The Last Jedi, 1.83 million total

-100K for Wonder Woman

-16.7K for Cars 3

-16.4K for Dunkirk, 833K total

[MattW]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

La Times says industry tracking is $80-90m for Wonder Woman. 

“Wonder Woman” is on track to debut with $80 million to $90 million in ticket sales from the United States and Canada, according to people who have reviewed pre-release audience surveys. Warner Bros. is downplaying opening weekend expectations, predicting $65 million to $70 million in sales.

http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-wonder-woman-warner-bros-20170530-story.html

[ZeeSoh]

9 minutes ago, MattW said:

“Wonder Woman” is on track to debut with $80 million to $90 million in ticket sales from the United States and Canada, according to people who have reviewed pre-release audience surveys. Warner Bros. is downplaying opening weekend expectations, predicting $65 million to $70 million in sales.

http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-wonder-woman-warner-bros-20170530-story.html

 

What ?!!!!! This is absurd. I can understand lowballing but this is taking things too far. No way does WW open to 80-90 not especially after the reviews. I originally had it at 110 m but after reviews im thinking more like 125m. 

 

[John Marston]

80-90m is realistic. Thinking a more modest opening but strong legs 

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

What ?!!!!! This is absurd. I can understand lowballing but this is taking things too far. No way does WW open to 80-90 not especially after the reviews. I originally had it at 110 m but after reviews im thinking more like 125m. 

 

 

Well the industry did predict $40m for Baywatch. 

 

They can be spot on, too high or even too low. 

[ZeeSoh]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Well the industry did predict $40m for Baywatch. 

 

They can be spot on, too high or even too low. 

 

True but baywatch has a 20's RT score whereas WW seems likely to finish in the 90's. Thats gonna influence those that were still undecided as well as the GA to come out and check WW out

[Nova]

Shrugs. I think the reviews and WOM will

help WW in the long run and allow it to establish really good legs but I don't think getting great reviews is going to bolster the OW for the film by say $50M. Either folks are hyped to see it or they're not. And if they're not they'll wait for someone they personally know to tell them how it was. Bad reviews for SS/BvS didn't keep people away OW. I'll be more than happy to eat crow if it opens to say $130-140M but I just don't personally see it. But I do see it having really good legs so I think $300M+ will happen. 

[MattW]

9 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

True but baywatch has a 20's RT score whereas WW seems likely to finish in the 90's. Thats gonna influence those that were still undecided as well as the GA to come out and check WW out

That's the week of release that reviews came out, and so tracking up to that point wouldn't take into account people's reaction to how the movies are received by critics.  

[boomboom234]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

La Times says industry tracking is $80-90m for Wonder Woman. 

When has tracking ever been accurate for big movies if I remember  MOS was tracking at 85 SS at 95 and BVS at 120-140 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

When has tracking ever been accurate for big movies if I remember  MOS was tracking at 85 SS at 95 and BVS at 120-140 

Those were early early numbers though. SS was tracking at $125M+ as of July 14th, 2016 and the week of release BvS was tracking for a debut north of $150M with some outlets having it at $165M. MoS was tracking for a $100M debut. Obviously the latter was off by a bigger margin....but the other two were pretty close given how high the numbers are. 

 

Having said that....you're right. Tracking for big films isn't always right. There have been several instances of films breaking out over the years. 

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

When has tracking ever been accurate for big movies if I remember  MOS was tracking at 85 SS at 95 and BVS at 120-140 

 

Higher the tracking worst the prediction model tend to become, those tracking depend a lot of comparable previous performance with the metrics and those giant movie have a low sample poll to build a model from.

 

Guardian of the galaxy 2 tracking of $150m was not far off.

Moviepilot digital tracking predicted 165 OW for BvS: http://variety.com/2016/data/box-office/batman-v-superman-box-office-digital-tracking-1201739710/

 

More common movie tend to have a more impressive tracking (Lego batman did almost exactly is 50m tracking with a 53m OW)

 

Apparently tracking achieve to be within 15% of the actual gross around 75% of the time.