The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FantasticBeasts]

Does anyone remember the tracking for Deadpool?

I think it was very low even at the week of release.

It may be a better comp If we consider that this can break out..

[FantasticBeasts]

Deadpool was tracking at $55-60m OW.

Lmaoooo

[BadAtGender]

I think WB is being deliberately conservative in their OW expectations. They'd prefer to be wrong on the low side than wrong on the high. It sets up the narrative that it's a breakout rather than failing to meet expectations.

 

I think people may be severely underestimating how the legs may go. To draw a point of comparison: Maleficent opened in the same post-Memorial Day weekend in 2014. It managed nearly a 3.5 multiplier from the 69m OW. And it was a film that was divisive, with middling critical response (50% RT, 5.7 average), but still had some cachet as a "feminist film". Wonder Woman doesn't have the negative critical baggage and won't be facing nearly as direct competition in the following weekend. It could probably hold on fairly strongly until Spider-Man.

 

That isn't to say it'll do 3.5x (unless WB's expectations are accurate, in which case it'll probably do at least that), but it could certainly edge close to a 3x.

[Lake]

http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-movie-projector-wonder-woman-20170530-htmlstory.html

 

Quote

This weekend, 20th Century Fox and DreamWorks Animation are hoping to attract family audiences with the new cartoon “Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie.” The PG-rated flick is expected to take in a modest $20 million domestically.

 

[Nova]

19 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Does anyone remember the tracking for Deadpool?

I think it was very low even at the week of release.

It may be a better comp If we consider that this can break out..

Deadpool had the benefit of having Sunday being Valentines Day. It's previews were $12.7M so even its preview number didn't indicate a $130M+ OW. While I think WW can breakout big time, I also think it's important to remember that Deadpool had the benefit of having Valentines Day fall on a Sunday which practically muted the Saturday-Sunday drop. Either way it would have come in way above tracking but I also feel like in Deadpool's case, the industry simply didn't know what to expect with the film. It was a mini JW. If WW does break out, it'll be added to the list of films that the industry really underestimated the GA's interest for it. 

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, Lake said:

http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-movie-projector-wonder-woman-20170530-htmlstory.html

 

 

Well. I admit I was wrong.

[YM!]

Just a notice. North Shore Cinema got rid of 3D for their PLF, Ultrascreen. However Wonder Woman is looking good for Thursday.

[WrathOfHan]

My theater turned CU's Thursday showings into 2D instead of 3D and moved it into a slightly bigger auditorium. No more showings for WW though (there's 4 right now)

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Well. I admit I was wrong.

Same here 

[Jonwo]

$20m seems awful low for CU, I think $35m would be more likely

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

My theater turned CU's Thursday showings into 2D instead of 3D and moved it into a slightly bigger auditorium. No more showings for WW though (there's 4 right now)

My theater also has a lot of show times for Underpants on two screens, however the 3D screen only has one showing. Wonder Woman also has a shit ton of screens in both 2D and Ultrascreen but only 2 3D showings.

[miketheavenger]

Again, don't be disappointed if WW "only" does 90-100m on OW. It will likely have strong legs, but I can't see the OW being as huge as many are predicting even with the reviews.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, YourMother said:

My theater also has a lot of show times for Underpants on two screens, however the 3D screen only has one showing. Wonder Woman also has a shit ton of screens in both 2D and Ultrascreen but only 2 3D showings.

CU only has 2 showings (they could add a 3rd if they wanted to considering how short the movie is and how late the last WW will be getting out) and WW has 2 2D/2 3D for my theater

Edited May 30, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

CU only has 2 showings (they could add a 3rd if they wanted to considering how short the movie is and how late the last WW will be getting out) and WW has 2 2D/2 3D

 

Parents don't want to take their kids to a later show. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Tele Came Back said:

 

Parents don't want to take their kids to a later show. 

Of course, but money is money, Tele.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

CU only has 2 showings (they could add a 3rd if they wanted to considering how short the movie is and how late the last WW will be getting out) and WW has 2 2D/2 3D for my theater

For my cinema, Ever since they added heated seats for Ultrascreen (which provided 75% of 3D showings) a week or two ago, they removed the 3D part in Ultrascreen.

Edited May 30, 2017 by YourMother

[Lake]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/wonder-woman-box-office-opening-worldwide-projection-gal-gadot-1202104439/

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Completely random but ComScore is headquartered 2 floors below me.

[Jonwo]

Warner Bros are lowballing WW, I think $200-250m WW OW is more likely 

[BeastByTheBay]

That's the same numbers tracking came up with 3 weeks ago. Still think it'll do 100M+ OW

Edited May 30, 2017 by BeastByTheBay