The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

44 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Black Panther pre-sales now DOUBLE Spider-Man Homecoming at my theatre. Granted, there were quite a few group buy's the past couple days which probably accounted for a lot of it but a really encouraging sign

225m+ OW confirmed.

[That One Girl]

Just now, Porthos said:

225m+ OW confirmed.

 

Stop being conservative, man.  $300M or bust

[MrGamer]

Y'all are being so safe with your predictions. 500M OW MINIMUM!

[TwoMisfits]

MT.com this morning - bad sign for Winchester that it's still not there...

13.9% Black Panther

9.9% Fifty Shades Freed

6.7% Padmaavat (Padmavati) (Hindi)

6.5% Greatest Showman, The

6.2% Maze Runner: The Death Cure

[WrathOfHan]

Theater update:

Spoiler

 

Hostiles:

 

11:00: 12/113

2:10: 4/113

5:15: 0/113

7:15: 0/78

10:15: 0/78

 

Winchester:
 

11:45: 10/78

2:15: 0/78

4:45: 0/78

8:15: 13/113

10:45: 0/113

 

The Post:

 

10:00: 4/124

12:45: 10/124

3:30: 2/124

7:35: 0/78

10:20: 0/78

 

Three Billboards:

 

2:05: 5/69

10:35: 0/69

 

Showman:

 

11:20: 6/67

1:50: 0/67

4:20: 0/67

7:50: 8/63

10:25: 0/63

 

Maze Runner:

 

10:05: 0/78

1:15: 0/78

4:25: 2/78

6:30: 7/124

9:45: 0/124

 

Thieves:

 

10:10: 5/63

1:25: 0/63

4:35: 0/63

6:55: 4/67

10:05: 0/67

 

Jumanji:

 

10:15: 0/78

1:00 3D: 0/78

4:00: 4/78

7:00 3D: 4/78

10:00: 0/78

 

Phantom Thread:

 

10:45: 5/78

1:45: 0/78

4:40: 0/78

7:40: 0/78

10:40: 0/78

 

Shape of Water:

 

11:15: 2/69

4:50: 1/69

7:45: 2/69

 

Forever My Girl:

 

11:05: 5/60

6:45: 0/60

9:30: 0/60

 

12 Strong:

 

10:30: 2/78

1:30: 0/78

4:30: 0/78

7:30: 0/78

10:30: 0/78

 

 

Winchester: 23/460 (Up 13)

The Post: 16/528 (Up 10) (-40% from last week)

Hostiles: 16/495 (Up 4) (-78% from last week)

Showman: 14/327 (Up 10) (+15% from last week)

Maze Runner: 9/482 (Up 9) (-80% from last week)

Thieves: 9/323 (Up 5) (+30% from last week)

Jumanji: 8/390 (Up 8) (+15% from last week)

Phantom Thread: 5/390 (Up 2)

Shape of Water: 5/207 (Up 5) (-66% from last week)

Forever My Girl: 5/180 (Up 2) (+150% from last week)

Three Billboards: 5/138 (+150% from last week)

12 Strong: 2/390 (Up 2) (-92% from last week)

I, Tonya and Coco have sold nothing.

 

lol, this weekend's expansions are going to flop hard here. Winchester comps:

 

10% of It (12.3M)

45% of HDD (11.7M)

50% of Insidious (14.8M)

55% of Jigsaw (9M)

190% of Flatliners (12.2M)

 

The comps today bode better, but audiences are ripping this movie to shreds online.

Edited February 2, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[el sid]

MT update:

#1 Black Panther 13.1%
#2 FSF 9.2%
#3 The Greatest Showman 6.9%
#4 Winchester 6.5%
#5 Padmaavat 6.4%

[Gokira2012]

Box Office.com  Black Panther

 

$139,000,000 OW     

 

$400,000,000 DOM

 

4000 Screens

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-ready-player-one-easter-releases/

[KeepItU25071906]

Bo forecast for "Ready Player One":

 

Quote

Opening nearly one month after A Wrinkle In Time, the film has a wide open market to itself with no other apparent blockbusters on the calendar until May’s Avengers: Infinity War. 

really?! 

[Jonwo]

21 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Bo forecast for "Ready Player One":

 

really?! 

Ready Player One has three weeks to itself so I imagine it'll have the bulk of its gross by the time Rampage is released

[KeepItU25071906]

12 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Ready Player One has three weeks to itself so I imagine it'll have the bulk of its gross by the time Rampage is released

We're talking about different things.

[MovieMan89]

5 hours ago, Gokira2012 said:

Box Office.com  Black Panther

 

$139,000,000 OW     

 

$400,000,000 DOM

 

4000 Screens

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-ready-player-one-easter-releases/

Aside from RPO, their forecasts make my club look pretty good. 

 

Their pros for RPO really aren't very convincing. They're basically just citing the pop culture references/throwback to older Spielberg films. Those have hardly even been played up in the marketing, and the audience that would care is older and probably not that interested in the film. They make a stronger case with their cons, yet still predict it will touch 200. I really doubt it, barring fantastic WOM. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Porthos]

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-13 Days and counting  

1/68 (nc)

 

2D:  0/44 (nc)

3D:  1/24 (nc)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 46 showings (+2)>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

2 (+1)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

2 (-1)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

6 (nc)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

1 (+1)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/123 (nc)   

St: 0/123 (nc)   

Su: 0/121 (nc)  

Mo: 0/106 (nc)

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (46/68 showings):

100%:    1 (nc)

90-99%: 4 (nc)

80-89%: 2 (+1)

70-79%: 4 (-1)

60-69%: 7 (+3)

50-59%: 1 (-2)

40-49%: 3 (nc)

30-39%: 4 (+1)

20-29%: 8 (+2)

10-19%: 5 (-3)

0-9%:    7 (-1)

[TwoMisfits]

MT.com end of night - Winchester allllmost got to the top spot...

8.2% Black Panther

8.1% Winchester

7.6% Greatest Showman, The

7.1% Maze Runner: The Death Cure

6.7% Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

[TwoMisfits]

Mt.com morning - Winchester did finally make it to #1...

8.5% Winchester

7.6% Greatest Showman, The

7.5% Maze Runner: The Death Cure

7.2% Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

7% Black Panther

[TwoMisfits]

FYI - Peter Rabbit is not waiting...Atom is running a BOGO for that movie already today...so, it should have a small presale bump at Atom-selling theaters heading into the week (considering both my local theaters were at zero presales last night, this should at least help the Atom one)......

[Porthos]

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-12 Days and counting  

1/68 (nc)

 

2D:  0/44 (nc)

3D:  1/24 (nc)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 46 showings>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

2 (nc)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

2 (nc)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

6 (nc)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

1 (nc)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/123 (nc)   

St: 0/123 (nc)   

Su: 0/121 (nc)  

Mo: 0/106 (nc)

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (46/68 showings):

100%:    1 (nc)

90-99%: 4 (nc)

80-89%: 2 (nc)

70-79%: 5 (+1)

60-69%: 7 (nc)

50-59%: 2 (+1)

40-49%: 1 (-2)

30-39%: 6 (+2)

20-29%: 6 (-2)

10-19%: 5 (nc)

0-9%:    7 (nc)

Edited February 4, 2018 by Porthos

[Hiccup23]

Fifty Shades Freed	209	1,138	18.4%
Black Panther	472	1,428	33.1%

 

Black Panther is crushing all 2017 superhero films easily. It is continuing to sell well. 50 Shades is starting to pick up as well. 

 

[DAJK]

@WrathOfHan Hostiles doing pretty decently in my town. Much better than 12 Strong at least. After Saturday it's at our equivalent of 9M, and Sunday matinees should be strong so I wouldn't be surprised if it can do our equivalent of 13M opening here. Maybe not quite enough to guarantee a 2-week run if it wasn't already in place with the studio, but enough to not be an embarrassment ahem 12 Strong...

 

ok wtf was up with the formatting there 

Edited February 4, 2018 by DAJK

[Porthos]

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-11 Days and counting  

1/68 (nc)

 

2D:  0/44 (nc)

3D:  1/24 (nc)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 46 showings>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

3 (+1)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

1 (-1)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

7 (+1)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

1 (nc)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/123 (nc)   

St: 0/123 (nc)   

Su: 0/121 (nc)  

Mo: 0/106 (nc)

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (46/68 showings):

100%:    1 (nc)

90-99%: 4 (nc)

80-89%: 3 (+1)

70-79%: 6 (+1)

60-69%: 5 (-2)

50-59%: 2 (nc)

40-49%: 2 (+1)

30-39%: 6 (nc)

20-29%: 5 (-1)

10-19%: 5 (nc)

0-9%:    7 (nc)

Edited February 6, 2018 by Porthos
Corrected bookkeeping error

[Porthos]

Do seem to be in something of a holding patten right now for Black Panther.  Saw something similar with Rogue One a couple of years ago, though I didn't keep nearly as meticulous notes as I am this time around.  R1 had the same rut until about seven days out, and then it really picked up steam before exploding the last few days.

Be interesting to see just when Black Panther kicks it up another gear here in Sacramento (and surrounding areas). Some theaters are steadily selling seats every day, enough so that they really ought to expand their screen count any day now to take advantage of the clear demand at their theaters.  Other theaters are barely selling any tickets at all, however.  Which is... curious

 

Still too soon for me to want to make a sweeping generalization about why, but I must admit I have some suspicions.  One of them, I must admit, is that they aren't as good as some of the other theaters in the region.   But I do admit to having less kind theories floating about in my noggin.  But I want to hold off a few more days before really solidifying my thoughts on the matter.