The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[grey ghost]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Do seem to be in something of a holding patten right now for Black Panther.  Saw something similar with Rogue One a couple of years ago, though I didn't keep nearly as meticulous notes as I am this time around.  R1 had the same rut until about seven days out, and then it really picked up steam before exploding the last few days.

Be interesting to see just when Black Panther kicks it up another gear here in Sacramento (and surrounding areas). Some theaters are steadily selling seats every day, enough so that they really ought to expand their screen count any day now to take advantage of the clear demand at their theaters.  Other theaters are barely selling any tickets at all, however.  Which is... curious

 

Still too soon for me to want to make a sweeping generalization about why, but I must admit I have some suspicions.  One of them, I must admit, is that they aren't as good as some of the other theaters in the region.   But I do admit to having less kind theories floating about in my noggin.  But I want to hold off a few more days before really solidifying my thoughts on the matter.

Will the strong theaters be able to compensate for the weak theaters enough to cross 150 m for the 3'day?

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Will the strong theaters be able to compensate for the weak theaters enough to cross 150 m for the 3'day?

That's one of the things I want to hold off commenting about.   Mostly because i want to really think about the relationship between weak sales and a bad in general theater (which would mean I should expect weak sales).

 

There is one theater though I'm tracking that is generally really strong that is underperforming, IMO, so I'm keeping a eye on it to see when it breaks out, if it does.

 

BP is clearly behind R1 at the same point in time though, but I expect BP to have far more walkups.  Complicating matters is that presales are stronger than ever.  On the third hand, there is MoviePass, which wasn't a factor in '16.  

 

I do think a 200m 4day is off the table right now, unless BP has JW level of walkups.  Which could happen!  Just isn't a sign of it from the data I have at the moment.

 

Of course, all of my thoughts would probably be better and have more weight if I tracked even one other Marvel movie.  If only so I could have a non-SW baseline.  Still, gotta start somewhere, no?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 5, 2018 by Porthos

[grey ghost]

@Porthos

 

Hmm, any idea how Deadpool did with walk ups in general?

 

Better than usual?

 

Since BP also comes out Valentine's weekend.

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

@Porthos

 

Hmm, any idea how Deadpool did with walk ups in general?

 

Better than usual?

 

Since BP also comes out Valentine's weekend.

I'd have to check, but from what I recall it blew away the prediction from tracking and kept rising during the OW, which suggests stronger than expected walkups to me.

 

*checks*

 

Long range tracking (mid-late Jan) had the OW at 55m-60m.  As I look further, I'm seeing 70m-90m reported the week of release.  So, yeah, I'd say it did very well in walkups to beat tracking by that much.

Edited February 5, 2018 by Porthos

[Porthos]

The thing with tracking, presales, and walksups is... Just how much of the increased presales are coming out of the pool which are normally walkups?

 

Let's say tracking thinks there should be X presales (based on hard data and compared to similar prior films) and Y walkups (ditto).  If X increases beyond expectations it doesn't necessarily mean Y stays the same.  It could be that X increases greatly while Y only decreases a little, leading to a larger than expected opening.  On the other hand, maybe more of the walkup crowd is getting eaten into than expected, leading to a smaller than expected OW.

 

Kinda a guessing game right now.  This is all complicated by out-of-this-world buzz on the one hand, but subject matter that might be slightly narrowing interest on the other hand (like it or not, I have to think of this as a consideration in this day and age). But on the third hand, there is going to be a pool tapped into that might not ordinarily be tapped. Lots of wild cards at play, in other words. 

 

I think the 64 million dollar question is:  How many people who are curious about the film get convinced to show up?  Well that and figuring out how large the 'curious pool' is outside of the hardcore base.  The buzz has to help a lot.  How much it helps, I have no idea at the moment.

Edited February 5, 2018 by Porthos

[aabattery]

[Poseidon]

If you ask me, putting those numbers into perspective, MI6 is the big winner...
Deservedly, it delivered a great trailer and looks like it could pull one of the surprises of the summer and make use of the ridiculously slow July/August. 

[HesAPooka]

I feel like those are really good numbers for MI6 which definitely skews older. Should also note boxoffice.com has the positive to negative count on twitter for MI6 at 90/1 which is insanely high for a cruise movie.

[Hiccup23]

Fifty Shades Freed

274

1,138

24.1%

 

 

Solid 65 ticket increase since I last counted. Will definitely add show times and boost it's sales. 

 

500-600 tickets sold should be the film's goal. 

[Porthos]

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-10 Days and counting  

1/69 (+0/+1)

 

2D:  0/45 (+0/+1)

3D:  1/24 (nc)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 47 showings [+1]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

3 (nc)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

1 (nc)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

8 (+1)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (+1)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/123 (nc)   

St: 0/123 (nc)   

Su: 0/121 (nc)  

Mo: 0/106 (nc)

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (47/69 showings [+1/+1]):

100%:    1 (nc)

90-99%: 4 (nc)

80-89%: 4 (+1)

70-79%: 6 (nc)

60-69%: 5 (nc)

50-59%: 2 (nc)

40-49%: 2 (nc)

30-39%: 6 (nc)

20-29%: 5 (nc)

10-19%: 5 (nc)

0-9%:    7 (nc)

[WrathOfHan]

AMC is offering a $5 concession card if you see The 15:17 to Paris this weekend

[DAJK]

Get to see Shape of Water and I Tonya next week. Will see Peter Rabbit too, probably not 50 Shades

[WrathOfHan]

Peter Rabbit has already sold 12 tickets for Friday at my theater  Could 30M be possible? (Fifty Shades has sold a lot that I don't feel like counting rn and 15:17 only has 2 tickets sold)

[Eric the Fall Guy]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Peter Rabbit has already sold 12 tickets for Friday at my theater  Could 30M be possible? (Fifty Shades has sold a lot that I don't feel like counting rn and 15:17 only has 2 tickets sold)

I always thought PR was underestimated here. Slapshit can still make money, and the kids whenever I got the trailer enjoyed this movie's slapshit. And now that Jumanji and Showman are starting to slow down and Paddington will probably be out of most theaters this Friday, there's pretty much nothing new for families. Critical reception also doesn't look to be that bad.

[WrathOfHan]

On 1/30/2018 at 4:37 PM, WrathOfHan said:

The Commuter, Paddington 2, and Star Wars: The Last Jedi are gone.

 

I, Tonya: 4 (Average)

Phantom Thread: 4 (Average)

Winchester: 4 (Biggest and Average)

Coco: 2 (Return; Smallest)

 

12 Strong: 4 (Flat; Average)

Den of Thieves: 4 (Flat; 3rd and 2nd Smallest)

The Greatest Showman: 4 (Flat; 3rd and 2nd Smallest)

Hostiles: 4 (Flat; Biggest and Average)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 4 (Flat; 3 2D/1 3D; Average)

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: 4 (Flat; Average)

The Post: 4 (Flat; 2nd Biggest)

Forever My Girl: 2 (Down 2; Smallest)

The Shape of Water: 2 (Flat; 4th Smallest)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 2 (Flat; 4th Smallest)

 

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Coco, Forever My Girl, I, Tonya, and Phantom Thread are gone.

 

WEEKEND:

 

Fifty Shades Freed: 14 (Biggest, 2nd Biggest, and Average)

Peter Rabbit: 8 (Average and Smallest)

The 15:17 to Paris: 5 (Average)

 

The Greatest Showman: 6 (3rd Smallest)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 5 (3 2D/2 3D; Average)

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: 5 (Average and 4th Smallest)

Winchester: 5 (Average and 4th Smallest)

12 Strong: 3 (Smallest)

Hostiles: 3 (2nd Biggest)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 3 (2nd Smallest)

Den of Thieves: 2 (Average)

The Shape of Water: 2 (2nd Smallest)

The Post: 1 (Average)

 

WEEKDAYS:

Fifty Shades Freed: 5 (Biggest and Average)

The 15:17 to Paris: 4 (2nd Biggest)

Peter Rabbit: 4 (Average)

 

12 Strong: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest and 2nd Smallest)

Den of Thieves: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest and 2nd Smallest)

The Greatest Showman: 4 (Flat; Average)

Hostiles: 4 (Flat; Average)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 4 (Flat; 2 2D/2 3D; Average)

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: 4 (Flat; Average)

The Post: 4 (Flat; Average)

Winchester: 4 (Flat; 3rd Smallest)

The Shape of Water: 2 (Flat; Smallest)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 2 (Flat; Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

Spoiler

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Oh Christ, my theater has tickets on sale for I Can Only Imagine on March 16  It must be going fairly wide because there's no fucking way a sub-1k TC would be enough for it to hit here right in the middle of March.

Edited February 6, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[MattW]

I forgot, is deep wang out of commission through black panther's opening? Curious how things are going

[Morieris]

Does anyone know the single theater Female Brain is going to?

[WrathOfHan]

I'm just glad I don't have to rush to see SOW over the next two days; this isn't a good week for me to be seeing movies  At least I got Phantom Thread done yesterday

[That One Girl]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm just glad I don't have to rush to see SOW over the next two days; this isn't a good week for me to be seeing movies  At least I got Phantom Thread done yesterday

 

I still can't believe you missed Paddington 2 in theaters.  How fucking dare you.