The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mojoguy]

When $100m OW is a huge win for Wonder Woman.

The same $100m OW would be a dud for Solo.

Funny how much these things depend on perspective.

[Tower]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

When $100m OW is a huge win for Wonder Woman.

The same $100m OW would be a dud for Solo.

Funny how much these things depend on perspective.

Solo isn't getting WW legs, the same opening would mean a far smaller gross overall.

[Nova]

11 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

When $100m OW is a huge win for Wonder Woman.

The same $100m OW would be a dud for Solo.

Funny how much these things depend on perspective.

Well it depends on expectations. Wonder Woman opened above it's tracking. If Solo does $100M for the 3-day (which I don't think it will...it will for sure be higher) it'll be seen as a disappointment because it came well under tracking. 

 

Sort of like how DP2 came under tracking and it was seen as a disappointment for its OW. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by Nova

[Mojoguy]

I imagine Solo getting a 100m OW is worst case scenario for Disney.

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

Well it depends on expectations. Wonder Woman opened above it's tracking. If Solo does $100M for the 3-day (which I don't think it will...it will for sure be higher) it'll be seen as a disappointment because it came well under tracking. 

 

Sort of like how DP2 came under tracking and it was seen as a disappointment for its OW. 

Under it's lowest tracking by 3.5%  People are ridiculous. 

 

Solo also carries the expectations of the SW brand name and very sizable budget.

[Nova]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

Under it's lowest tracking by 3.5%  People are ridiculous. 

 

Solo also carries the expectations of the SW brand name and very sizable budget.

I admit I contributed to the meltdowns last weekend. Then again the evidence is there 

 

But you're right. Its the Star Wars brand coupled with where it's tracking so if it did open to $100M for the 3-day people would consider that a disappointment. 

[TwoMisfits]

48 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

When $100m OW is a huge win for Wonder Woman.

The same $100m OW would be a dud for Solo.

Funny how much these things depend on perspective.

And budget...WW had a production budget of only $149M...at least $100M+ less than Solo:)...

[MrGlass2]

Solo won't take the lead on Fandango until the East Coast goes to bed.

 

[TwoMisfits]

MT.com right now - Solo has a chance at taking the top by the evening, but it's no sure thing...it should get there by tomorrow morning (I think)...

39.7% Deadpool 2

27.9% Solo: A Star Wars Story

8.6% Avengers: Infinity War

7.4% Book Club

2.5% Life of the Party

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

MT.com right now - Solo has a chance at taking the top by the evening, but it's no sure thing...it should get there by tomorrow morning (I think)...

39.7% Deadpool 2

27.9% Solo: A Star Wars Story

8.6% Avengers: Infinity War

7.4% Book Club

2.5% Life of the Party

 

With 2 updates left for the day, its not looking likely to take the lead today. Most likely tomorrow morning.

[Biggestgeekever]

Don't have time to look up any comparisons through this thread, but I counted 180 tickets on Pulse for Solo over 5 minutes. So about 36 tickets per minute at 4:30PM PST

[Poseidon]

I said it before, Solo was only 3rd choice in the Fandango Summer Ranking and the other two movies already sold a lot of tickets. 

 

The signs were always there.

[Porthos]

For historical purposes:

 

2018-05-24 01:00:58.637169 UTC
1	36.7%	Deadpool 2
2	32.8%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
3	8.2%	Book Club
4	8.1%	Avengers: Infinity War
5	2.2%	Life of the Party

2018-05-24 00:00:53.371185 UTC
1	38.1%	Deadpool 2
2	30.8%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
3	8.1%	Avengers: Infinity War
4	7.8%	Book Club
5	2.3%	Life of the Party

2018-05-23 23:00:44.857944 UTC
1	39.7%	Deadpool 2
2	27.9%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
3	8.6%	Avengers: Infinity War
4	7.4%	Book Club
5	2.5%	Life of the Party

[a2k]

If it does 110 ow, needs just over 2.8x to beat AOTC's dom. 2.8x off an ow with inflated Sunday won't be easy. Needs 115+ FSS to have a realistic shot at AOTC imo.

[Poseidon]

19 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

If it does 110 ow, needs just over 2.8x to beat AOTC's dom. 2.8x off an ow with inflated Sunday won't be easy. Needs 115+ FSS to have a realistic shot at AOTC imo.

 

Some multipliers for Memorial Day (4D):

 

Pirates 3: 2,02

Indy 4 (opened with a full thursday aof $25m and deflated the WE): 2,49

X-Men 3: 1,91

Fast 6: 2,04
X-Men: DOFP: 2,12

Hangover 2: 2,46 (Opened with a full Thursday)

Jurassic Park: TLW: 2,54
The Day after Tomorrow: 2,18

Bruce Almighty: 2,83
X-Men: Apo: 1,95

Now theres your Top 10 all time openers for Memorial Day.
If your only hope is a comedy from 15 years ago, theres not much hope at all.

 

I would be quite surprised by anything more than a 2,3 for Solo. I'd rather go lower, if I had to bet. 

Edited May 24, 2018 by Poseidon

[Nova]

It's almost 10PM on the East Coast. I don't know how DP2 is still ahead of Solo on The Pulse. Like I know Solo has the 3D/IMAX tickets selling but the 2D Solo should be ahead of 2D DP2 (Unless there is a lag in the system which I know Porthos and Barnack were talking about) But I'm gonna guess that within the hour Solo should overtake DP2 and be in that top spot. 

Edited May 24, 2018 by Nova

[LonePirate]

Be very weary of gleaning much from those advanced ticket sales percentages. Put more faith in ticket sales numbers instead.

 

Neither AIW or DP2 opened against a film that was grossing $10M+/day and was looking at a weekend gross of $50M-$60M+. DP is selling a ton of tickets for same day shows which is why its percentage is so high and Solo's is still muted.

 

A far more important gauge are comparisons of the number of tickets sold by Solo respective to the number of tickets sold by AIW and DP2 during the same time frame (1-2 days out). Those volume differences are what you need to be focusing on - whether Solo is selling far less, about the same or far more tickets.

[MrGlass2]

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-05-23 20:59:14 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-05-23 20:00:00	987	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-05-23 20:00:00	916	Deadpool 2
2018-05-23 20:00:00	179	Solo A Star Wars Story 3D
2018-05-23 20:00:00	177	Avengers Infinity War
2018-05-23 20:00:00	124	Book Club
2018-05-23 20:00:00	78	Solo A Star Wars Story The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-23 20:00:00	44	Deadpool 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-23 20:00:00	37	Life of the Party
2018-05-23 20:00:00	32	Solo A Star Wars Story An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-05-23 20:00:00	30	Breaking In (2018)

 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-05-23 20:59:14 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-05-23 20:00:00	987	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-05-23 20:00:00	916	Deadpool 2
2018-05-23 20:00:00	179	Solo A Star Wars Story 3D
2018-05-23 20:00:00	177	Avengers Infinity War
2018-05-23 20:00:00	124	Book Club
2018-05-23 20:00:00	78	Solo A Star Wars Story The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-23 20:00:00	44	Deadpool 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-23 20:00:00	37	Life of the Party
2018-05-23 20:00:00	32	Solo A Star Wars Story An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-05-23 20:00:00	30	Breaking In (2018)

 

Book Club over IW tomorrow? 

[nguyenkhoi282]

4 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

When $100m OW is a huge win for Wonder Woman.

The same $100m OW would be a dud for Solo.

Funny how much these things depend on perspective.

WW budget was 150M, Solo's was 250M. And WW went on to gross 412M, Solo will be lucky to reach 350M, more like 325M or less