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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted
Just now, Pandamia! said:

July

August - CHRISTOPHER ROBIN 700m!

September/October

November - RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET 500M!

December - MARY POPPINS YALL 1B DOM!

I like how Nov/Dec combo will more than make up for Sep/Oct lameness.

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It would need well over a 4x to get in Lion King range which had appox 74.64m admissions the first time around

 

For example Toy Story 3 opened to $110m with approx 14m tickets.  $140m would be $17m tickets. So a 4.35x to get to LK levels.  TS3 finished with approx  53.33 and a 3.76 multi

I don't mean it will get to TLK levels, but it will join the Shrek 2/TLK tier of biggest first run animated admissions if it opens that high. 150 x 3.7 would give it 555. Nothing else is on that admissions level besides TLK/Shrek 2, though both are still significantly higher. 

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Biggestgeekever Box Office Gold

Biggestgeekever

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

With a 140+ ow I2 would "only" need 3.2x to hit 450. Dory did 3.60x and TS3 did 3.76x. Yet another 500 dom movie on cards for Disney? INSANE.

 

One 500+ dom movie alternate months Dec '17-June '18:

 

Dec TLJ 621

Jan

Feb BP 700

March

April AIW 660-680

May

June I2 possibly 500

What's gonna help that out is the biggest animated competition for the rest of the summer is Hotel Transylvania 3, which will probably make around half of DM3 last year and closer to a third of Secret Life of Pets. JW2 is stiff competition in the second weekend, but if Incredibles 2 is truly great, I'm more inclined to think it'll be competition for JW2, rather than the other way around.

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I really do hope whatever black magic Disney is employing to get these numbers at the box office this year will carry over to Christopher Robin and Ralph as well. Would love to see both slaughter expectations and hit like 300+. 

Christopher Robin looks so lovely.  I hope it doesn't get lost in the mix like Pete's Dragon.  PD did OK but was easily one of their best live action re-makes and deserved a bigger audience.

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Christopher Robin looks so lovely.  I hope it doesn't get lost in the mix like Pete's Dragon.  PD did OK but was easily one of their best live action re-makes and deserved a bigger audience.

It's definitely not gonna get lost in the mix. I2 will have died down by that point and it has August and most of September to itself for any competition. Trailer has caught on and gotten lots of buzz and waxing nostalgia online. I actually heard audible "awwws" in my audience during the Pooh reveal when I saw the trailer with WiT. I think it can do 200 if WOM is great. I'd love to see it break out even bigger. 

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I really do hope whatever black magic Disney is employing to get these numbers at the box office this year will carry over to Christopher Robin and Ralph as well. Would love to see both slaughter expectations and hit like 300+. 

I hope it carries over into AM&tW.   

 

Also, 

 

2axn78.jpg

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

Three hours to go:

 

7:00: 92/124 -3

7:00 3D: 50/113 -6

7:30: 27/67 +17

7:30 3D: 22/78

7:45: 15/63

8:00: 47/78

8:30 3D: 17/69

9:00: 47/78 +1

9:45: 7/78 +4

Total: 324/618 (+13) (235 2D/89 3D)

 

Comps (previews/final total):

 

30% of The Last Jedi (13.5M)

31% of Infinity War (12.1M)

65% of Black Panther (16.4M)

76% of Deadpool 2 (14.1M)

96% of Thor: Ragnarok (13M)

101% of Justice League (13.1M)

 

lmfao, shows are LOSING sales :hahaha: IDK if they're migrating to the 7:30 show because the 7:45 show still hasn't moved since noon.

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RealLyre Box Office Gold

RealLyre

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Three hours to go:

 

7:00: 92/124 -3

7:00 3D: 50/113 -6

7:30: 27/67 +17

7:30 3D: 22/78

7:45: 15/63

8:00: 47/78

8:30 3D: 17/69

9:00: 47/78 +1

9:45: 7/78 +4

Total: 324/618 (+13) (235 2D/89 3D)

 

Comps (previews/final total):

 

30% of The Last Jedi (13.5M)

31% of Infinity War (12.1M)

65% of Black Panther (16.4M)

76% of Deadpool 2 (14.1M)

96% of Thor: Ragnarok (13M)

101% of Justice League (13.1M)

 

lmfao, shows are LOSING sales :hahaha: IDK if they're migrating to the 7:30 show because the 7:45 show still hasn't moved since noon.

So is this looking at sub $15M Thursday previews?

 

That's less than half of what R1 made :ph34r: 

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, A2k Raptor said:

I like how Nov/Dec combo will more than make up for Sep/Oct lameness.

Sept/Oct look awesome this year though

 

Nun/Predator could break out. Smallfoot will probably do well, and House/Clock looks really interesting. Venom could be a 100M opener, and I think Haloween is breaking out as well

 

edit; forgot about First Man. There's another one

Edited by DAJK
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MrGlass2 Summer Tentpole

MrGlass2

Posted
Posted 
Updated by @akvalley: 2018-05-24 14:00:31 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-05-24 13:00:00	1154	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-05-24 13:00:00	662	Deadpool 2
2018-05-24 13:00:00	158	Solo A Star Wars Story 3D
2018-05-24 13:00:00	148	Avengers Infinity War
2018-05-24 13:00:00	136	Book Club
2018-05-24 13:00:00	86	Solo A Star Wars Story The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-24 13:00:00	54	Solo A Star Wars Story An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-05-24 13:00:00	31	Life of the Party
2018-05-24 13:00:00	25	Deadpool 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-24 13:00:00	20	A Quiet Place
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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Who would like some hot and fresh, day of release Solo presale numbers?

 

Give me all you got Wang. And give it to me deep.

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