The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

My 12plex AMC is actually getting Deadpool 🤔

Didn't realise Deadpool was so big with OAPs 

[YM!]

My AMC is splitting Spider-Man and Mortal Engines in IMAX 2D+3D.

 

God I wish I had time to see Spidey in IMAX 3D.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

My AMC is splitting Spider-Man and Mortal Engines in IMAX 2D+3D.

 

God I wish I had time to see Spidey in IMAX 3D.

bad move cause ME's gonna bomb hard. waste of screens, should have been all Spidey.

[Blankments]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

My AMC is splitting Spider-Man and Mortal Engines in IMAX 2D+3D.

 

God I wish I had time to see Spidey in IMAX 3D.

I wish my theater had it at a time that wasn't 11;30pm

[Plain Old Tele]

1 hour ago, Blankments said:

I wish my theater had it at a time that wasn't 11;30pm

 

Go on a Friday night. 

[el sid]

Pulse always 8:35-8:49 EST:

Once Upon a Deadpool: 20/15 minutes
 

Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse: 35/15
The Mule: 13/15
Mortal Engines 5/15
Yesterday at that time The Mule was a little bit in front of Mortal Engines with 5 to 4 tickets in 15 minutes and Spider-Man was clearly leading with 16/15 (Once Upon a Deadpool had 13/15).

And Pulse always 10:50-11:04 EST:
 

Once Upon a Deadpool: 45/15 minutes - Idk, not bad for a release in only 500 theaters, but also not overwhelming therefor that it starts tomorrow
 

Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse: 59/15
The Mule: 20/15 - presales startet very muted but since Thursday/Friday it gains ground every day
Mortal Engines 7/15 - it's still Tuesday but if this continues it could open under 10M

[Boxofficerules]

Are there Deadpool previews tonight?

[MattW]

29 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Are there Deadpool previews tonight?

Yep. Cinemark by me has 7pm and 10pm shows running tonight.

7pm has 49 seats sold out of 82

10pm has 2 out of 103

 

Tomorrow's 7pm has 39 seats sold already. Should be making decent money for the theater count.

Edited December 11, 2018 by MattW

[Neucentro]

At http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt , presales for Spider-Verse is about triple that of The Mule, which more than doubles that of Mortal Engines. 

[TwoMisfits]

34 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

At http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt , presales for Spider-Verse is about triple that of The Mule, which more than doubles that of Mortal Engines. 

The big question on Spidey is:  should its presales be compared to a live action supers movie, an animated movie, a franchise-type movie, or all/none of the above?  Depending how you answer that question, its current presales are either amazing or subpar or somewhere in between:).  This weekend is gonna be so fascinating to see what the actual "right" answer to this question will be:)...  

[MCKillswitch123]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 The big question on Spidey is:  should its presales be compared to a live action supers movie, an animated movie, a franchise-type movie, or all/none of the above?  Depending how you answer that question, its current presales are either amazing or subpar or somewhere in between:).  This weekend is gonna be so fascinating to see what the actual "right" answer to this question will be:)...  

I don't think that there's anything quite like Spider-Verse, tbh. I would've guessed that Lego Batman is the best comparable, but it came out in February where presales skew more for OW, while in the holidays it's pretty spread out across many days.

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I don't think that there's anything quite like Spider-Verse, tbh. I would've guessed that Lego Batman is the best comparable, but it came out in February where presales skew more for OW, while in the holidays it's pretty spread out across many days.

I'm not even sure Lego Bats compares since that seems like it skewed much more kid heavy from the start (since the Lego brand has skewed that way on tv)...I've got no more good gut instinct yet, but I'm leaning towards something like Ready Player One - a heavier male skew and a heavier 13-25 skew...so treating it like a premier film, but a definite directed-to-a-supers fan type (or gamer fan for RPO)...

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/ready-player-one-box-office-opening-day-1202740207/

 

EDIT: And, of course, RPO happens to be one movie not on our awesome comparing list:)...

Edited December 11, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Eric the IF]

I feel like Ant-Man and the Wasp is the best comparable option when it comes to Spider-Verse. Both are superhero movies, both have a strong fanboy crowd, but both will also have a pretty strong family crowd to balance things out.

 

Using both movies' Monday Fandango sales, Spider-Verse has sold 56% of AM&TW at the same day, which would translate to about 42.5M. Of course, sales could be spread out more due to the Christmas season (even though only two theaters have Chirstmas Day showtimes up for Spider-Verse), and maybe Spider-Verse skews more fanboy or more family than Ant-Man, but that OW isn't all that impossible at this point.

[MrGlass2]

53 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'm not even sure Lego Bats compares since that seems like it skewed much more kid heavy from the start (since the Lego brand has skewed that way on tv)...I've got no more good gut instinct yet, but I'm leaning towards something like Ready Player One - a heavier male skew and a heavier 13-25 skew...so treating it like a premier film, but a definite directed-to-a-supers fan type (or gamer fan for RPO)... 

I think that Spider-Verse will have many older fans (of a long-running franchise) compared to the average animated movie or even a RPO, but that is a good question.

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2018/12/look-out-here-comes-the-spider-verse-sony-animation-title-eyes-30m-35m-opening-box-office-preview-1202517968/

 

Opening box office metrics point to Sony Animation’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse —a fresh take on the Marvel superhero where anyone can wear the mask told in a novel cartoon style– in the neighborhood of $30M-$35M, which would be a great start in this sleepy pre-Christmas marketplace.

 

Also looking at the marathon of the holiday season versus the opening weekend sprint is Clint Eastwood’s The Mule with a mid-to-high teens start at 2,588 locations, which on the high-end is where his elderly comedy Space Cowboys opened to at $18M eighteen years ago.

 

Universal has the Media Rights Capital co-financed WingNut Films-produced sci-fi feature Mortal Engines which carries a production between $100M-$150M (we’re hearing more toward the high-end). Based on the series of Scholastic YA novels by Philip Reeve, the movie is expected to greatly tank with an opening between $10M-$13M at 3,000 theaters.

[VTKajin]

If Spider-Verse doesn't crack $40M, then Bumblebee won't crack $30M imo.

 

Good news for Aquaman, though, if that happens, leaves room for it to overperform by a lot.

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, VTKajin said:

If Spider-Verse doesn't crack $40M, then Bumblebee won't crack $30M imo.

 

Good news for Aquaman, though, if that happens, leaves room for it to overperform by a lot.

It's only tracking for a 30-35M 5 day, so the 3 day will only be 20-25M.

[VTKajin]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's only tracking for a 30-35M 5 day, so the 3 day will only be 20-25M.

Yeah, though I'm sure some people were hoping the good reviews would push it higher. I don't think it's a bad OW, anyway. The budget is a fraction of TF5 and a gross anywhere close is a success.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, VTKajin said:

Yeah, though I'm sure some people were hoping the good reviews would push it higher. I don't think it's a bad OW, anyway. The budget is a fraction of TF5 and a gross anywhere close is a success.

Plus it's already having monster WOM from Saturday's screening and reviews. It should still be able to pass TLK and possibly go higher

[Valonqar]

Holy shit batman, that ME budget! Superbomb incoming! run for the shelter!