The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[fabiopazzo2]

2019-03-07 19:00:35.662684 UTC
1	79.4%	Captain Marvel
2	4.9%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
3	2.8%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
4	1.2%	Green Book
5	1.2%	Alita: Battle Angel

Edited March 7, 2019 by fabiopazzo2

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Not sure who Senpai is, but you are aware about past connections to BOP and ... ?

"senpai noticed us" is a meme/phrase riffing off the standard cliche/plot of many anime/manga stories where the poor neglected student feels validation when their master/respected authority figure (i.e. senpai) acknowledged their existence. 

 

A bit of an explanation here: https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/senpai-is-real 

 

Edited March 7, 2019 by Porthos

[HouseOfTheSun]

6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Does someone know about Dallas' (Texas, in case there is more than one Dallas) BO for preview night?

Someone at Twitter says (with lots of screenshots) not many seats are sold after the first screening at 18:00 o'clock. Like 19:00 or later = nearly empty, but shows at 18:00 are full, even sold out.

Well this is my home market and I believe that person is posting from the AMC at the NorthPark Mall. Nobody wants to go through the effort to traverse that mall to go see a movie. Especially late at night. Other theaters (Alamo drafthouse, Studio Movie Grill have 50-75% sellouts for showing at 9-10pm

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Interesting.  I wonder if that takes into account the aftermarket or more women really do come tht much later to see films

 

The fact 51% of the population and 51% of the movie going audience is female make it sound like a everyone is our audience type of statement.

 

Or their internal numbers do not match what we can get at all:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/807365/marvel-movie-viewership-gender/

[FlashMaster659]

 

[FlashMaster659]

CM now at 80% on MT

 

2019-03-07 20:00:30.335719 UTC
1	80%	Captain Marvel
2	4.8%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
3	2.8%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
4	1.1%	Green Book
5	1.1%	Alita: Battle Angel

[TwoMisfits]

One thing in Captain Marvel's weekend favor...I have NEVER seen my locals clear out and give screens like it did for this movie - not even for TFA and AIW at the one...

 

Right now, for the whole weekend, my Cinemark local 12 has given it SEVEN screens (and 34 showings) and my Regal local 12 has given it 5 screens (and 23 showings - which is on par with TFA and AIW)...

 

Heck, my Cinemark pretty much punted all holdovers except 3 foreign films (sharing 1 screen), Lego (1 screen), HTTYD 3 (1.5 screens), Madea (1 screen), and Green Book (.5 screen)...that's all they kept.  I assume they are booking most of the new movies next weekend when they surely cut CM to 3-4 screens...

 

It's this kinda oversaturation  (and middling WOM so far from users here) that lead me to think that maybe I'm lowballing the OW and overestimating the legs...I mean, I could see Civil War legs on a Civil War OW...in fact, I know I said AIW was my mark...but now Civil War might be my actual BO DOM estimation:)...

 

I'll probably regret this later, but that's my new expectation, including Civil War's Thursday (so $25M + inflation or something close the $26M)...

 

 

[terrestrial]

Exhibitor Relations Co.‏ @ERCboxoffice 5m5 minutes ago

More

Will CAPTAIN MARVEL arrive higher, go further and be faster than WONDER WOMAN? Diving into 4,310 venues, will Marvel's latest top $85M? $103M? $120M? $160M? Projections have run scattershot across the spectrum. What say you?

[Rebeccas]

Well it's been a dismal year so far at the box office so the theaters are putting all their hope in Captain Marvel. Currently we have HTTYD3 in its 3rd weekend and that Madea movie, which historically should be extremely frontloaded.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

will Marvel's latest top $85M?

No, the OD will probably just miss 😛 

[Deep Wang]

14 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

One thing in Captain Marvel's weekend favor...I have NEVER seen my locals clear out and give screens like it did for this movie - not even for TFA and AIW at the one...

 

Right now, for the whole weekend, my Cinemark local 12 has given it SEVEN screens (and 34 showings) and my Regal local 12 has given it 5 screens (and 23 showings - which is on par with TFA and AIW)...

 

Heck, my Cinemark pretty much punted all holdovers except 3 foreign films (sharing 1 screen), Lego (1 screen), HTTYD 3 (1.5 screens), Madea (1 screen), and Green Book (.5 screen)...that's all they kept.  I assume they are booking most of the new movies next weekend when they surely cut CM to 3-4 screens...

 

It's this kinda oversaturation  (and middling WOM so far from users here) that lead me to think that maybe I'm lowballing the OW and overestimating the legs...I mean, I could see Civil War legs on a Civil War OW...in fact, I know I said AIW was my mark...but now Civil War might be my actual BO DOM estimation:)...

 

I don't know if this is an advantage or disadvantage.

 

Sometimes, I can't help but feel like if there are too many screens and it's doing great, but not selling them all out, it feels dead and lifeless.  And there isn't as much of a fever to see it.  

 

When shit is selling out constantly and people can't get in, it creates a much different atmosphere that I feel is somewhat contagious.

 

You want to have enough screens for the demand, but you can have too many.

[terrestrial]

25 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

No, the OD will probably just miss 😛 

Hmm, that part you quoted let it look like I asked that.

[Cap]

1 hour ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Well this is my home market and I believe that person is posting from the AMC at the NorthPark Mall. Nobody wants to go through the effort to traverse that mall to go see a movie. Especially late at night. Other theaters (Alamo drafthouse, Studio Movie Grill have 50-75% sellouts for showing at 9-10pm

I am not from Dallas, but I can confirm the "no one wants to go that theater" trend is real.  I'm in Southern Maine, and the three theaters of the same chain stand at:

 

The IMAX Theater with the Recliners:

7PM IMAX - Sold Out

9:45PM IMAX - Sold Out But Front Row

7PM Non-IMAX 85%

8PM Non-IMAX 70%

10PM Non-IMAX - 15%

 

The Recliner Theater has Sold Out First Showings, with a healthy amount sold for the rest.  (There's also a dip in sales, because the IMAX just switched the reserved seat recliners.)

 

And the Janky Old Stadium Theater still has like 50% of its 7PM seats available for its big theater.  

Edited March 7, 2019 by captainwondyful

[TwoMisfits]

My only worry...I'm in a coastal large city metro (east coast)...is CM playing as well outside the coasts (since we know west coast is also going high)?  Could this be a movie which plays wildly differently depending where you are (which would actually make it similar to Black Panther, just in a different way)...

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Hmm, that part you quoted let it look like I asked that.

Hmm, so it did. Side effect of “quote selection,” I guess. Well, I was just making fun of the tweet’s low end

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: 

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 1:05pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	202	10114	19147	47.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:             1053

 

1.1518x as many tickets sold as Black Panther mid day of premiere.

.6442x as many tickets sold as Infinity War mid day of premiere.

1.1519x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 mid day of premiere.

1.4926x as many tickets sold as Solo mid day of premiere.

1.5980x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 mid day of premiere.

2.2390x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp  mid day of premiere.

2.4033x as many tickets sold as Venom mid day of premiere.

1.9245x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 mid day of premiere.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

T-0 Mid-Day comps::

 

BP:            943 tickets sold that half day [9 sellouts/127 showings   |   3944/10816 seats left  | 63.54% sold]

IW:            752 tickets sold that half day [17 sellouts/182 showings |   2873/15159 seats left  | 81.05% sold]

DP2:          942 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/167 showings  |  9330/16201 seats left   | 42.41% sold]

Solo:         377 tickets sold that half day [2 sellouts/142 showings  |   8150/13453 seats left  | 39.42% sold]

JW2:          761 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/147 showings  |    8762/13715 seats left | 36.11% sold]

AM2:         897 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/112 showings  |   7361/10896 seats left  | 32.44% sold]

Venom:     725 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/127 showings  |   9748/13229 seats left  | 26.31% sold]

FB2:          570 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/134 showings  | 11494/15841 seats left  | 27.44% sold]

CM (adj)*: 845 tickets sold that half day [1 sellouts/202 showings   |   7662/15577 seats left | 50.81% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 1:05pm]

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	191	7118	14078	49.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:               731

 

1.0128x as many tickets sold as Black Panther mid day of premiere.

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 1:05pm]

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	202	7662	15577	50.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:     845

 

1.1518x as many tickets sold as Black Panther mid day of premiere.

[cax16]

On 3/5/2019 at 10:45 PM, cax16 said:

Preview night at my theatre for reserved seating is currently 

 

435/1456

 

That’s for 4 showtimes. There’s also two other screens but I can’t track cause it’s not reserved seating.

 

I live just North of Toronto(Canada)

 

I don’t have exact numbers from previous cbm but this is pretty good. It’s pretty  close to what BP had but not as much. Going forward I’ll keep the data from preview nights for big tent pole movies. I’ll update this on Thursday with final sales. 

Currently 645/1456

 

I’ll check again in a few hours before I head out and I’ll check again later on before the 10pm shows. 

Edited March 7, 2019 by cax16

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

AM2:         897 tickets sold that half day 

 

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

CM (adj)*: 845 tickets sold that half day

75 OW is coming 

[HouseOfTheSun]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: 

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 1:05pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	202	10114	19147	47.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:             1053

 

1.1518x as many tickets sold as Black Panther mid day of premiere.

.6442x as many tickets sold as Infinity War mid day of premiere.

1.1519x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 mid day of premiere.

1.4926x as many tickets sold as Solo mid day of premiere.

1.5980x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 mid day of premiere.

2.2390x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp  mid day of premiere.

2.4033x as many tickets sold as Venom mid day of premiere.

1.9245x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 mid day of premiere.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

T-0 Mid-Day comps::

 

BP:            943 tickets sold that half day [9 sellouts/127 showings   |   3944/10816 seats left  | 63.54% sold]

IW:            752 tickets sold that half day [17 sellouts/182 showings |   2873/15159 seats left  | 81.05% sold]

DP2:          942 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/167 showings  |  9330/16201 seats left   | 42.41% sold]

Solo:         377 tickets sold that half day [2 sellouts/142 showings  |   8150/13453 seats left  | 39.42% sold]

JW2:          761 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/147 showings  |    8762/13715 seats left | 36.11% sold]

AM2:         897 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/112 showings  |   7361/10896 seats left  | 32.44% sold]

Venom:     725 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/127 showings  |   9748/13229 seats left  | 26.31% sold]

FB2:          570 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/134 showings  | 11494/15841 seats left  | 27.44% sold]

CM (adj)*: 845 tickets sold that half day [1 sellouts/202 showings   |   7662/15577 seats left | 50.81% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 1:05pm]

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	191	7118	14078	49.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:               731

 

1.0128x as many tickets sold as Black Panther mid day of premiere.

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 1:05pm]

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	202	7662	15577	50.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:     845

 

1.1518x as many tickets sold as Black Panther mid day of premiere.

This ain’t no Solo I’ll tell you that 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

T-0 Mid-Day comps::

 

BP:            943 tickets sold that half day [9 sellouts/127 showings   |   3944/10816 seats left  | 63.54% sold]

DP2:          942 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/167 showings  |  9330/16201 seats left   | 42.41% sold]

JW2:          761 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/147 showings  |    8762/13715 seats left | 36.11% sold]

AM2:         897 tickets sold that half day [0 sellouts/112 showings  |   7361/10896 seats left  | 32.44% sold]

CM (adj)*: 845 tickets sold that half day [1 sellouts/202 showings   |   7662/15577 seats left | 50.81% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

Want to draw attention to these four comps in particular.

 

First off, Black Panther handily outsold Captain Marvel despite being in 66% of the reserved seating showings.  AND having less desirable seats available to boot.

 

So that BP ratio I didn't quote should be taken in context.

 

Secondly, just look at those walkups for DP2 and JW2.   JW2 will even nuttier at the final report, selling over a 1200 tickets in approx five to six hours at the theaters tracked.

 

And, as I've been telling you all, AM2 also had a shit-ton of walkups, considering the type of movie.  It too will sell a lot of tickets in its final five hours of previews, topping over a 1000 tickets sold.

 

CM, by comparison, is falling slightly behind those three films when it comes to walkups.  I mean, don't get me wrong.  845 is fantastic for half-a-day.  It's just not a mega monster on walkups.

 

Yet.

 

So perhaps keep that in mind when thinking about the preview number and the OW coming up.