The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Rebeccas]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

Deep Wang has access to numbers from one of the largest theater chains in the US, and those are the presale #s before previews started.

Ok but what does this number indicate? How much do movies usually sell an hour before previews start? Is this good, bad, or what?

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, Rebeccas said:

Ok but what does this number indicate? How much do movies usually sell an hour before previews start? Is this good, bad, or what?

To my understanding, it's outstanding.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

2 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Ok but what does this number indicate? How much do movies usually sell an hour before previews start? Is this good, bad, or what?

 

On 3/5/2019 at 1:46 PM, CoolEric258 said:

Stealing the chart Wang generated in early January 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I'm keeping this a spoiler out of respect for Wang's wishes.

 

 

According to this chart, only Last Jedi  is ahead of it, so...yeah, that's pretty gosh-dang outstanding

[Rebeccas]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

According to this chart, only Last Jedi  is ahead of it, so...yeah, that's pretty gosh-dang outstanding

Wow thanks, didn't know this was a thing but holy shit TLJ number..... why is it so crazy high compared to BATB (per OW ratios)

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Just now, Rebeccas said:

Wow thanks, didn't know this was a thing but holy shit TLJ number..... why is it so crazy high compared to BATB (per OW ratios)

SW movies are notorious for having abnormally higher presales compared to most big franchise movies. That's why we had all of those "Solo presales outpace Black Panther." That technically was true, but that's because of how much of a special case SW is.

 

Also BATB was a PG movie that skewed younger

[HouseOfTheSun]

6 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Ok but what does this number indicate? How much do movies usually sell an hour before previews start? Is this good, bad, or what?

Had BP not happened last year, it’d be off the charts for a solo

[Rebeccas]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

SW movies are notorious for having abnormally higher presales compared to most big franchise movies. That's why we had all of those "Solo presales outpace Black Panther." That technically was true, but that's because of how much of a special case SW is.

 

Also BATB was a PG movie that skewed younger

Hmm interesting, I knew SW was preview frontloaded but that presale number is crazy. Really curious about these presale trends, like I kinda get why women would be more inclined to presales but what about SW fanatics vs. Marvel fans makes them so different in buying habits. 

[Porthos]

 

Just took a look at @CoolEric258's spreadsheet.

 

It's close enough to Update Time (an hour or so, IIRC) so I won't steal his thunder.

 

I'll just say "👍" and leave it at that.  

[charlie Jatinder]

Going by @CoolEric258 #s, it shall go for $23-24mn Previews. Cool.

[RealLyre]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Going by @CoolEric258 #s, it shall go for $23-24mn Previews. Cool.

175M weekend very possible with 24M previews. 7.3x multi very close to CW (7.1x) but let's wait and see

 

 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Black Panther

35,429

36,302

39,934

65,453

Avengers: Infinity War

49,836

54,892

68,826

206,000

Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501

Fantastic Beasts

8,956

14,238

21,861

31,880

Captain Marvel

33,951

37,060

49,745

64,456

 

98% of Black Panther (198.9M)

31% of Infinity War (80.6M)

204% of Venom (163.9M)

300% of A Star is Born (128.6M)

202% of Fantastic Beasts (125.7M)

 

Last 7 Days

99% of Black Panther (199.7M)

 

Day 17-Day 1

79% of Black Panther (160.3M)

 

I'm way too exhausted to do any analysis, so...do whatever.

[Cap]

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

I'm way too exhausted to do any analysis, so...do whatever.

 

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

175M weekend very possible with 24M previews. 7.3x multi very close to CW (7.1x) but let's wait and see

 

 

 

No, I think 180 mil is very likely with 24 mil previews. Even with 23.5 mil, 180 is likely if you ask me. 

[fabiopazzo2]

2019-03-08 13:00:30.025093 UTC
1	85.2%	Captain Marvel
2	4.2%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
3	2.4%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
4	0.8%	Alita: Battle Angel
5	0.7%	Green Book

[charlie Jatinder]

On 3/2/2019 at 6:34 PM, Charlie Jatinder said:

Not sure about it but doing some math from some data pieces, the pure Friday presales of IW, BP and S-M:HC were

  Hide contents

IW 33M

BP 21M

S-M:HC 9M

1

 

CM 17M

Edited March 8, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Rebeccas]

11 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

CM 16M

What does this mean and is it good.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Rebeccas said:

What does this mean and is it good.

It means CM had 17mn+ pre-sales for Friday compared to 21mn of Black Panther. BP did 2.5x that number to 50.7mn while I expect CM to do 42+.

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It means CM had 17mn+ pre-sales for Friday compared to 21mn of Black Panther. BP did 2.5x that number to 50.7mn while I expect CM to do 42+.

Deleted with better Math

Edited March 8, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, if you use IW, that had a true Friday of $67.3M with presales prior of $33M for a 2.04 multiplier on the day.  It might be safer to make that the "floor" on the day for CM, so $28.56M Friday could be the floor (okay, that seems low)...maybe a split between the two for $35M true Friday ish...

 

Or did I do all this math wrong?:)

17 × 2.04 ~ 35. IW was obviously more Pre-sales heavy. Black Panther seems like right comp.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

17 × 2.04 ~ 35. IW was obviously more Pre-sales heavy. Black Panther seems like right comp.

See, I did the Math wrong - gonna edit my post (somehow fat fingered the presale input:)...thanks!