The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[LordNox]

Will the fact that Endgame start selling tickets next week lead to Shazam selling fewer tickets for the opening?

 

I'm starting to think that Shazam will open low and have to rely on good word of mouth to do well. The good reviews doesn't seem to have led to an increased demand for seeing Shazam. The interest seems higher in Dumbo for some reason among the audiences.

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, LordNox said:

Will the fact that Endgame start selling tickets next week lead to Shazam selling fewer tickets for the opening?

Depends how long Fandango is down for after Endgame crashes the site

[EconomySize]

Cumulative Sales Extrapolations (COB Tuesday):

Cumulative Sales	Dumbo	Wrinkle	Pooh	Grinch	Nutcracker
Total Tickets	15222	15207	7313	15709	6604
Ratio		1.00	2.08	0.97	2.30
OW		33.12	24.56	67.57	21.00
Proj OW		33.15	51.12	65.48	48.40

 

Grinch, Pooh and Nutcracker are all solid numbers - I think DIsney would take 48-65 as a range.  Wrinkle's off, but as has been mentioned before - it went after a pre-sale heavy female demographic.  I actually removed wrinkle from Thursday grosses, because the other three had more similar pre-sale to preview gross ratio.  This stability arguably makes it easier to predict Thursday numbers, but then it introduces the problem of a secondary PG:OW model and compounding errors.  

 

Cumulative Sales	Dumbo	Pooh	Grinch	Nutcracker
Thurs. Tickets	2751	1774	2163	741
Ratio		1.55	1.27	3.71
PG		1.5	2.2	0.65
Proj PG		2.33	2.80	2.41

 

The Thursday numbers make me highly suspicious of this hitting its projections.  While at this range of PG, there is a lot of variation to OW - Models generally put $3 million in PG at the high 40s-50..  If it matches the 2.3 at the low end here, would put it closer to $40.  Now Grinch outperformed the model - but it is an animated kids movie, which generally lift above the model numbers .  This is a benefit Dumbo may/may not enjoy. FWIW Pooh and Nutcracker both  landed in the modeled range.

Edited March 27, 2019 by EconomySize

[Matthew]

April 2 is the start of Endgame selling tickets. 

 

I am 100% certain it will have some effect on Shazam. Probably 45M+/- OW seems legit and good for a 90m production. 

[LordNox]

Pretty sad that Shazam will not be rewarded at the box office for it being a very good superhero movie. If it was a Marvel movie it would crush it at the box office.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, LordNox said:

Pretty sad that Shazam will not be rewarded at the box office for it being a very good superhero movie. If it was a Marvel movie it would crush it at the box office.

It's a little early to be giving a movie a funeral when we're still 9 days out from opening day...patience can sometimes be a virtue (for the record, I don't have my tickets yet, but we'll be seeing this in April - now that I know my mom is visiting Easter, we're deciding whether we are OW without her, or Easter weekend with her:)...

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, LordNox said:

Pretty sad that Shazam will not be rewarded at the box office for it being a very good superhero movie. If it was a Marvel movie it would crush it at the box office.

you know that audience dont care about what studios makes them right ? see venom,deadpool 2,aquaman ,wonder woman etc and you are telling me this ? when the movie thats i leasted and many more were able to compete with mcu movies ? nice joke

[LordNox]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's a little early to be giving a movie a funeral when we're still 9 days out from opening day...patience can sometimes be a virtue (for the record, I don't have my tickets yet, but we'll be seeing this in April - now that I know my mom is visiting Easter, we're deciding whether we are OW without her, or Easter weekend with her:)...

The main problem is that Shazam is already selling badly at presales and Endgame starting presales next week means that Shazam presales will be crushed leading into OW. It seems that Shazam will open even lower than 40M.

 

It seems in the end that this is a very bad release schedule for the movie. It seems almost everyone in the general audiences will just ignore Shazam and wait for Endgame to arrive.

[cdsacken]

I will be shocked of Shazam opens to lower than 60

[LordNox]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I will be shocked of Shazam opens to lower than 60

Why? I mean i want Shazam to do great but all the presales stats are very bad. And Endgame ensures that it won't be able to pick up much leading into OW. 40M seems like an achievement if nothing changes.

[TwoMisfits]

On 12/14/2018 at 9:05 AM, CoolEric258 said:

Full list in the spoiler tag

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	3,475
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	6,235
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (Wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
*4pm-12am

 

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Mary Poppins	1,593	1,487	2,280	2,118
Aquaman	1,877	1,851	2,561	2,550
Bumblebee	297	323	412	379
Second Act	7	10	25	27
Holmes & Watson	1	2	68	97
Vice	0	0	7	13

 

Taking this post and bringing it to the forefront b/c it has Aquaman's total Fandango presales per day during the week prior to its opening week (aka, where Shazam is right now).  It's the most on point movie b/c it also did the sneaks a few weeks early and it's DC.  However, note that its presales could represent sales for any part of Xmas, so it's not perfect (but since presales are only growing, we can probably equate the two movies pretty well:)...

 

At this point in the prior week, Aquaman sold decently, but it wasn't exploding...so, everyone can probably relax til next week after seeing this data:)...(yes, I know Shazam is currently below Aquaman for these prior week weekdays but Shazam had bigger previews and these numbers are still pretty small in the grand scheme, so again, relax - it's gonna be the last 72 hours that make or break this OW:)...

Edited March 27, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[el sid]

Pulse today 8:50-9:04 EST:

Dumbo: 123/15 – yesterday it were 60/15, up 105%; The Nutcracker had 37/15 minutes, Lego 2 120/15, HtTYD3 100/15, Wonder Park 24/15 all same day and time of the day
Unplanned: 10/15
The Beach Bum: 2/15
 

And Pulse today 10:35-10:49 EST:
 

Dumbo: 158/15 – yesterday 74/15; up 113%; The Nutcracker had 44/15 minutes, Lego2 113/15, HtTYD3 134/15, all same day and time of the day 
→ despite the mediocre reviews it looks good for Dumbo today. 50M should really be doable, maybe 55-60M is the range so far. 65M seems too optimistic but let's see how its jumps are tomorrow. So far the reviews hurt less than I thought.
Unplanned: 30/15
Hotel Mumbai: 12/15
The Beach Bum: 2/15

[Matthew]

4 minutes ago, el sid said:

Pulse today 8:50-9:04 EST:

Dumbo: 123/15 – yesterday it were 60/15, up 105%; The Nutcracker had 37/15 minutes, Lego 2 120/15, HtTYD3 100/15, Wonder Park 24/15 all same day and time of the day
Unplanned: 10/15
The Beach Bum: 2/15
 

And Pulse today 10:35-10:49 EST:
 

Dumbo: 158/15 – yesterday 74/15; up 113%; The Nutcracker had 44/15 minutes, Lego2 113/15, HtTYD3 134/15, all same day and time of the day 
→ despite the mediocre reviews it looks good for Dumbo today. 50M should really be doable, maybe 55-60M is the range so far. 65M seems too optimistic but let's see how its jumps are tomorrow. So far the reviews hurt less than I thought.
Unplanned: 30/15
Hotel Mumbai: 12/15
The Beach Bum: 2/15

Pulse are better than HTTY3 and LM2. My projection is 57M+/-. Let's see how things turnout

[MrGlass2]

42 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's a little early to be giving a movie a funeral when we're still 9 days out from opening day.

I know, right. (Out of like)

People used to wait for Deadline's first preview estimates.

[Porthos]

38 minutes ago, LordNox said:

The main problem is that Shazam is already selling badly at presales and Endgame starting presales next week means that Shazam presales will be crushed leading into OW. It seems that Shazam will open even lower than 40M.

 

It seems in the end that this is a very bad release schedule for the movie. It seems almost everyone in the general audiences will just ignore Shazam and wait for Endgame to arrive.

I'm gonna say something that is damn near heresy on a forum devoted to box office:  Box Office Returns Aren't Everything.

 

See, WB isn't stupid.  They KNOW that films right around now are going to get sucked into the Endgame vortex.  On the other hand, if it has fantastic word of mouth (check), strong buzz from critics (check) and had a very good life in the cable/home media/streaming market (unknown), then having an allegedly disappointing box office run might not matter as much.

 

The Gold Standard here, of course, is Batman Begins.  As hard as it is to fathom, it's was seen as disappointing by quite a few at the time.  The 4x legs were seen as a good sign for future prospects, sure, but legs were stronger at time so it's not like it was viewed the same as a 4x movie would now.  When it blew the doors off the home media market, combined with the stellar word of mouth, it not only birthed a franchise, but indirectly launched the entire DCEU.

 

Of course, Batman Begins always gets trotted out as an example, partially for its rarity.  And the home media market is a shell of its former self, that is true.  But if Shazam! turns a profit, has exceptional buzz/WOM and has a strong presence in the streaming market/cable TV, kinda think a so-called disappointing box office run won't matter all that much.  It is the exact type of movie where external factors are looked at.

 

Yes, it sucks that the movie's box office might not reach what it "should have", which is what we mainly care about 'round these parts.  But it should set up a very nice run for Black Adam and whatever the heck Shazam! 2 is called.  Which, come to think of it, is something we also care about. 

 

And, anyway, probably waaaaaaay too premature to write off Shazam! anyway, especially if it is more walkup based when it comes to pre-sales.

Edited March 27, 2019 by Porthos

[IceFire9yt]

If (and that's still a big if) Shazam does poorly, might it be a case of it getting lost in the shuffle?  Having the movie be sandwiched between Captain Marvel and Infinity War might not be best scheduling-wise.  Aquaman had a lot of competition, but it was still the only live action superhero movie and wasn't going to get overshadowed by the hype for another movie.

[John Marston]

Shazam is a completely unknown character. Nobody outside fanboys know who he is. This is a movie that will likely rely on legs rather than a huge opening weekend.  Should at least reach the 55-60m range like Ant Man

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, IceFire9yt said:

If (and that's still a big if) Shazam does poorly, might it be a case of it getting lost in the shuffle?  Having the movie be sandwiched between Captain Marvel and Infinity War might not be best scheduling-wise.  Aquaman had a lot of competition, but it was still the only live action superhero movie and wasn't going to get overshadowed by the hype for another movie.

And this is part of the thing as well. Could be that  WB itself is surprised at how well this movie is going over in buzz and WOM.  Sure, studios always hope for the best, but they put it here initially for a reason, right?

 

I suspect WB will schedule whatever is next in the Shazam! line in an area where it has more room to breathe of things play out like I suspect they might.

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Shazam is a completely unknown character. Nobody outside fanboys know who he is. This is a movie that will likely rely on legs rather than a huge opening weekend.  Should at least reach the 55-60m range like Ant Man

I think movies like Guardians should prove by now that you don't need a well-known property to do well as a CBM. Literally only a portion of people who go to see these movies read or care about the comic books. What matters is the marketing and audience reception, something I'd argue Shazam has a pretty good mix of. 

 

I for one will be surprised if it doesn't have at least a 65/180 run. Endgame will certainly kill late legs, but it should be a respectable run nonetheless. 

[fabiopazzo2]

44 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I will be shocked of Shazam opens to lower than 60

Same for me. In this moment I think Shazam will open over 70M