What a WONDERful Weekend | WW down only 16% on Sunday. 103M weekend. pg 226

[Gopher]

Wonder Woman's going up. High 30s day and mid 90s weekend could mean it will parallel the first GOTG throughout June. Competition will be tougher so 300 isn't a lock but if audiences love the film anything is possible. Even Suicide Squad managed a 2.5x. 

 

3m for Guardians today would lead to another weekend above Ultron's. 400 is a stretch but it's gonna have a better multiplier than any summer opener in five years. 

 

Didn't realize Captain Underpants was a 30m movie?? Incredible if so and could lead to a solid low-risk future for DWA. 

[George Parr]

18 minutes ago, excel1 said:

$34m would mean $23m from FriDAY. 300,000 Tweets, dominating MT and Fandango, excellent word of mouth. I can't see it.

 

I would be shocked at under $50m total end of day Friday.

 

Dominating MT and Fandango doesn't really say much, because those are percentage based. There is a huge difference between getting 75% of low sales, 75% of high sales or 75% of extremely high sales. So far, social media hasn't been reflective of box office either. Some movies are just more appealing to certain audiences that happen to be more active on social media.

 

50m sounds way too optimistic to me, early numbers usually aren't that far off. 40m might be doable, but a huge jump beyond that is just unrealistic.

[Empire]

4 minutes ago, excel1 said:

I can't see under $45m. I will stay retired forever if I am wrong. 

Now I am hoping this get a 44M opening day. 

[WrathOfHan]

Shit, I forgot Fox has The Greatest Showman as well. They're in for a great winter too with that and The Post.

 

Paramount should move Downsizing to Thanksgiving or 2018. Unless they heavily rework it, the film isn't an Oscar contender and will get destroyed during Christmas against Star Wars, Pitch Perfect, Greatest Showman, and Jumanji.

[franfar]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

TBH I thought I was gonna seem way off base comparing it to Grand Budapest but it's a vibe I got. I just don't think it has that kind of reception and lasting power, sadly.

Yeah, and I loved seeing GBH in theaters. But both seem like movies that rely on the set pieces and costumes. Like, it looks like the story could be intriguing, but it's not gonna be an event that motivates people to leave their homes. It'll do well on streaming, though.

 

Also, I looked up The Mountain Between Us trailer, and it looks like a wonderful thriller. That, OTOH, could break-out.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Iron Raf said:

 

Trailer views are useless sure. 

 

But social media interaction, new conversations, etc arent.

 

?

http://www.boxofficereport.com/trailerviews/owyoutuberatios.html

 

In 2017 the 60 movie listed on that website, trailer view R correlation factor with first weekend box office is 0.82

 

I would expect that no other metric than real trailers views would be that high, a trailer view (particularly if it come from a google search) show a clear and high amount of interest by the person watching (and obviously full awareness). 

 

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

IMO Mountain should move to the first or last week of September. Opening against It might not be a terrible idea either. Fox is positioning Murder as their Thanksgiving film. I'm going to strongly disagree on the no major stars part; there's someone for everyone in that cast. It'll be the adult alternative to Justice League and Coco.

Huh, I don't see that with the stars at all. First off, Depp literally hurts more than he helps at this point. Dude is beyond toxic. Ridley might have some interest for it being her first non-Star Wars movie, but I'll wait and see on that. I loveeee Kenny Branagh but dude is not a star in America at all. Jacobi and Dench are legends but they're respected vets, not stars. Penelope Cruz, when has she ever been a star? I guess Gad and Odom could appeal to the musical theater crowd. 

 

 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Would be nice if WW is one of those movies that keeps increasing through the evening.

[grey ghost]

People are acting like Dr. Strange was chopped liver.

 

People were pretty hyped due to the mind-bending visuals and Marvel's winning streak. Few B-tier, SH origin movies cross the 200 m mark.

 

Suicide Squad numbers were a long shot because it was a team movie. Team superhero movies do better because there are more characters that can possibly hook movie goers.

 

Deadpool numbers? Deadpool had one of the best marketing campaigns of the last 15 years, people forget.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 2, 2017 by grey ghost

[franfar]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

$50-55m seems to be the general consensus, 

Good lord. 

 

5 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

Box office-wise, September/October look quite strong this year. Much better than August, actually.

This August has a dearth of films. I can see that helping out Detroit by Bigelow.

[Jonwo]

Murder will likely do solid business OS especially the UK where Agatha Christie is revered 

[a2k]

...

Edited June 3, 2017 by a2knet

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, nomyth said:

I don't see Orient Express doing too well. The audience it appeals to primarily probably mostly know how it ends and I don't think the cast will do much to draw them in.

People knew how Titanic ends and it still did gangbusters. if the movie is good, i can see it being a nice hit,  but i don't see 100M

[Water Bottle]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Huh, I don't see that with the stars at all. First off, Depp literally hurts more than he helps at this point. Dude is beyond toxic. Ridley might have some interest for it being her first non-Star Wars movie, but I'll wait and see on that. I loveeee Kenny Branagh but dude is not a star in America at all. Jacobi and Dench are legends but they're respected vets, not stars. Penelope Cruz, when has she ever been a star? I guess Gad and Odom could appeal to the musical theater crowd. 

 

 

 

Late 90's, early 2000s'?

[DAR]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Huh, I don't see that with the stars at all. First off, Depp literally hurts more than he helps at this point. Dude is beyond toxic. Ridley might have some interest for it being her first non-Star Wars movie, but I'll wait and see on that. I loveeee Kenny Branagh but dude is not a star in America at all. Jacobi and Dench are legends but they're respected vets, not stars. Penelope Cruz, when has she ever been a star? I guess Gad and Odom could appeal to the musical theater crowd. 

 

 

Well rumor is 

Spoiler

Depp is the murder victim so he's probably not in the film much

 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, a2knet said:

Gitesh .... Low-30s, "a strong 80+ weekend' 
link

Well, we're all over the map now. Hopefully rth comes along at some point.

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, franfar said:

Yeah, and I loved seeing GBH in theaters. But both seem like movies that rely on the set pieces and costumes. Like, it looks like the story could be intriguing, but it's not gonna be an event that motivates people to leave their homes. It'll do well on streaming, though.

 

Also, I looked up The Mountain Between Us trailer, and it looks like a wonderful thriller. That, OTOH, could break-out.

There's less movies built around star power than ever this year, but if anyone is being tested, it's Idris Elba. Dark Tower and Mountain are both built pretty much entirely around a high-concept plot mixed with Idris in the lead and another star. That used to be the model for almost every major movie in Hollywood - take a high-concept, put a star in it, and voila! People used to say "let's see the new Will Smith/Tom Cruise joint" instead of saying "Let's see the new Marvel movie."

[Water Bottle]

5 minutes ago, nomyth said:

I don't see Orient Express doing too well. The audience it appeals to primarily probably mostly know how it ends and I don't think the cast will do much to draw them in.

 

Most people know how most movies end: usually if there's a big twist, it'll get hype but most movies are pretty predictable. Doesn't stop them from seeing them.

[Alli]

9 minutes ago, franfar said:

I haven't seen too many out-there expectations. Personally, I can see it do like 115-120m, with a bigger than average OW for that month (35-40m)

Sounds about right

[robertman2]

So, what are we looking at?