What a WONDERful Weekend | WW down only 16% on Sunday. 103M weekend. pg 226

[franfar]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I see Fox having an EXCELLENT fall between Kingsman, Murder on the Orient Express, and Mountain Between Us. I think all three of them are grossing 100M (as long as MBU moves the fuck away from October 20).

I don't think Murder on the Orient Express hits 100m. I think it'll play like Grand Budapest Hotel; maybe it hits 65-70m even with great reviews.

[Alli]

IT, another film with huge trailer views that will not live up to the hype...

[Jonwo]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

It will break it, and then Kingsman will break it again two weeks later  

 

Thats a lot of its in one sentence. 

 

I personally think it'll be close. Would be great to see two huge hits in September 

[Mulder]

Damn you guys need to relax in here.

[excel1]

I can't see under $45m. I will stay retired forever if I am wrong. 

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, SpiritComix said:

 

That was more or less my prediction. But I'm not that cool with that, actually.

 

It's WONDER WOMAN, the biggest female superhero, Known by everyone, the best thing in BvS, with great reviews, in May (summer) against Doctor Strange, a weird unknown character, in october.

 

I really liked Doctor Strange. But I was hoping way more from Wonder Woman.

 

Why? Read the first pages of the Wonder Woman thread to see how the character was considered just a few years ago.

 

And unlike Doctor Strange, this is a female superhero. Wonder Woman OW will make more than Catwoman, Elektra and Supergirl DOM combined.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yup, Fox needs to get it into September. It's having excellent trailer views so far (same with MOTOE).

I think it should move to Thanksgiving. September/October are crowded as hell, and there's no live action movies opening on Thanksgiving. It could play great through the holidays.

 

Murder on The Orient Express I am very excited for, but I don't see the audience. Is it an Oscar play? Doesn't seem like it. Is it supposed to be an adult blockbuster? An 80 year old British mystery novel with no major stars doesn't scream it. A quirky hit with nice leggy appeal? This is a major production, it ain't Grand Budapest.  I don't see who the target is for that movie yet. But it's one of my most anticipated of the rest of the year.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

IT, another film with huge trailer views that will not live up to the hype...

People are letting their expectations getting out of hand, but I think It's going to do 55/130 or so.

[miketheavenger]

Box office-wise, September/October look quite strong this year. Much better than August, actually.

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, excel1 said:

I can't see under $45m. I will stay retired forever if I am wrong. 

 

You've made statements like this before and never seem to actually stick to your word.

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, franfar said:

I don't think Murder on the Orient Express hits 100m. I think it'll play like Grand Budapest Hotel; maybe it hits 65-70m even with great reviews.

TBH I thought I was gonna seem way off base comparing it to Grand Budapest but it's a vibe I got. I just don't think it has that kind of reception and lasting power, sadly.

[franfar]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

IT, another film with huge trailer views that will not live up to the hype...

I haven't seen too many out-there expectations. Personally, I can see it do like 115-120m, with a bigger than average OW for that month (35-40m)

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

I can't see under $45m. I will stay retired forever if I am wrong. 

You've said this before when being wrong and yet you're still here. 

Edited June 2, 2017 by Nova

[Wonder89]

Rth?

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think it should move to Thanksgiving. September/October are crowded as hell, and there's no live action movies opening on Thanksgiving. It could play great through the holidays.

 

Murder on The Orient Express I am very excited for, but I don't see the audience. Is it an Oscar play? Doesn't seem like it. Is it supposed to be an adult blockbuster? An 80 year old British mystery novel with no major stars doesn't scream it. A quirky hit with nice leggy appeal? This is a major production, it ain't Grand Budapest.  I don't see who the target is for that movie yet. But it's one of my most anticipated of the rest of the year.

IMO Mountain should move to the first or last week of September. Opening against It might not be a terrible idea either. Fox is positioning Murder as their Thanksgiving film. I'm going to strongly disagree on the no major stars part; there's someone for everyone in that cast. It'll be the adult alternative to Justice League and Coco.

Edited June 2, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[nomyth]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Yea, I need to see something from Surburicon, but I like the cast and it is apparently great and will be released as a relatively major picture so that could be good. All Eyez has a ton of buzz with most everyone I know. Admittedly the kind of people I talk to, especially here, are more predisposed to be interested in this movie as big Tupac fans. But I also think that some people tend to ignore that buzz that they can't see. So it's a balance. It certainly won't come close to SOC, but unless reviews are awful I could see 30m+ OW still.

 

I was stunned how well the Mountain Between Us trailer played with my crowd last night at WW. Lots of chatter and good buzz.

 

Glad to see I'm not the only one predicting breakout for All Eyez. I've been eyeing 30M for a while now. It pops up on Pulse fairly frequently. I think the marketing has really focused on the right demographics and should surprise people.

[Jonwo]

Just now, franfar said:

I haven't seen too many out-there expectations. Personally, I can see it do like 115-120m, with a bigger than average OW for that month (35-40m)

 

$50-55m seems to be the general consensus, 

[Wonder89]

Forbes said that the break even point is around 450M 

[ZeeSoh]

Guardians 2 had a preview to OD multi of 3.29. Taking the middle number of deadline range i.e. 36 million would give it a preview to OD multi of 3.27 which is nearly the same.

With the same saturday and sunday drops as gotg2 would take WW to 94 million OW

 

That being said stop it with the doom and gloom people. This number is decent and an opening between 95-100 would be great and above tracking. Only those who predicted absurdly high numbers will be disappointed when there was no indication it would do that high.

 

WW will have great legs as competition will be weak in coming weeks. I still think a total north of 300 is happening with great reviews and WOM.

[nomyth]

I don't see Orient Express doing too well. The audience it appeals to primarily probably mostly know how it ends and I don't think the cast will do much to draw them in.