WEEKEND THREAD | Actual: Wonder Woman 58.63M, Estimates: Mummy 32.2M, Underpants 12.3M, Pirates 10.2M, ICAN 6M

[BadAtGender]

If we just look at the true opening weekend (sans Thursday previews), WW had about a 36-37% drop this weekend. We'll probably be looking at an even stronger hold next weekend, because the Sunday drop will be even more muted than the 22% it got yesterday. Yes, it might not play as a strong Father's Day movie, but there's going to be some positive effect, there.

 

7.5m Monday

10.25 Tuesday

7.25 Wednesday

7m Thursday

11.5m Friday

16.25m Saturday

14m Sunday

 

So roughly 280m after next Sunday? Is my math right there?

[grey ghost]

29 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

No chance. The MCU is the MCU because of Downey Jr.  As he goes, they go.  Now, Guardians of the Galaxy is actually doing insanely well on their own so if you had said them I could agree but the others are too mid-level to ever replace Downey Jr. or even Evans.  I can't stand the Iron Man character anymore but he prints money.  Fair is fair. 

 

Even without Iron Man, Marvel Studios is more successful than most major studios.

 

This year they'll make over 2 billion from 3 movies. Even if Homecoming didn't have Iron Man, they'd still probably make it.

[bruchav]

20 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

If we just look at the true opening weekend (sans Thursday previews), WW had about a 36-37% drop this weekend. We'll probably be looking at an even stronger hold next weekend, because the Sunday drop will be even more muted than the 22% it got yesterday. Yes, it might not play as a strong Father's Day movie, but there's going to be some positive effect, there.

 

7.5m Monday

10.25 Tuesday

7.25 Wednesday

7m Thursday

11.5m Friday

16.25m Saturday

14m Sunday

 

So roughly 280m after next Sunday? Is my math right there?

 

WW made $11.7m last Monday, $7.5m Is too much high.

Edited June 12, 2017 by bruchav

[Daxtreme]

7M should be a good target

[KeepItU25071906]

4 minutes ago, bruchav said:

 

$7.5m Is too much high.

Why? 7,5 m - it's the same drop like previous Monday (-60%).

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Why? 7,5 m - it's the same drop like previous Monday (-60%).

 

First Mondays drop lower and first Tuesday increases are lower. This Monday can drop 65-67% but the Tuesday increase will also be higher by 10-15%, which means that by Wednesday it will all even out.

 

I can see a Monday around 6.5M or so.

[BadAtGender]

7 minutes ago, bruchav said:

 

WW made $11.7m last Monday, $7.5m Is too much high.

 

Sunday was down about 36% week on week. The same drop from last Monday gives it 7.5m.

 

It could actually hold a little better, IMO, because the shift into summer means the weekday holds should be bigger, but the Friday bumps will be smaller.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Thinking $7.5M Monday is likely.

[IronBatman]

Black panther is going to be a mega hit

[dxmatrixdt]

Everything, Everything has another 1M left in it for the upcoming weekdays (Mon-Thurs)

[grim22]

Just realized this, Wonder Woman basically equaled the second weekend of the first Hunger Games movie. That was also a cultural phenomenon and opened to 55M more than WW and had great reviews, and was weekend heavy thanks to being in March. This second weekend hold is crazier the more you think about it.

[Jonwo]

12 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Just realized this, Wonder Woman basically equaled the second weekend of the first Hunger Games movie. That was also a cultural phenomenon and opened to 55M more than WW and had great reviews, and was weekend heavy thanks to being in March. This second weekend hold is crazier the more you think about it.

 

I think the sequel could do $150m OW if critical reception is on par with this film.

[The Panda]

7 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I think the sequel could do $150m OW if critical reception is on par with this film.

 

I don't think critical reception will matter for OW.

 

But yeah, I really think they'll need to put Wonder Woman front in center for Justice League marketing.

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, The Mummified Panda said:

 

I don't think critical reception will matter for OW.

 

But yeah, I really think they'll need to put Wonder Woman front in center for Justice League marketing.

 

I imagine it'll split between her and Batman. I'm sure WB has a few ideas of how to use WW in the JL marketing 

[Daxtreme]

36 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Just realized this, Wonder Woman basically equaled the second weekend of the first Hunger Games movie. That was also a cultural phenomenon and opened to 55M more than WW and had great reviews, and was weekend heavy thanks to being in March. This second weekend hold is crazier the more you think about it.

 

 

[cory]

Up 1.3m from estimates?

Holy smokes Batman

 

 

 

 

[aabattery]

Didn't see anyone mention this; Arrival crossed 200M worldwide.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=arrival2016.htm

[baumer]

2 hours ago, bruchav said:

 

WW made $11.7m last Monday, $7.5m Is too much high.

 

A 60% drop is 7.5 mill. I think it can hit that number.

[FantasticBeasts]

Regarding the comparisons between studios, I don't know If anyone shares my opinion but I believe that WB is on another level when it comes to marketing.

Far better than any other studio, Disney included.

[Johnny Tran]

2 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

Even without Iron Man, Marvel Studios is more successful than most major studios.

 

This year they'll make over 2 billion from 3 movies. Even if Homecoming didn't have Iron Man, they'd still probably make it.

 

I'm not disagreeing about Spider-Man it's a giant property but they could have had confidence in the character instead of piling on with Stark. To me the addition of Stark was less about "hey look Spidey is MCU now" and more about trying to guarantee it'd break out.  Which is a smart business move I guess but it makes me less excited.. we'll see if it has any affect on the GA.  Probably only a positive affect with the GA.