WW Tuesday...8.8 Guru

[Johnny Tran]

I wasn't here then, how much affect did Colorado have on TDKR?

[ChipDerby]

6 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I wasn't here then, how much affect did Colorado have on TDKR?

 

Depends on who you ask. It depressed the Friday and Saturday number, but it may have stabilized after. It's hard to gauge.

[grim22]

According to BOM, Wonder Woman has now earned more than all the other World War 1 set movies combined

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Wonder Woman	WB	$221,460,634	4,165	$103,251,471	4,165	6/2/17
2	War Horse	BV	$79,884,879	2,856	$7,515,402	2,376	12/25/11
3	Lawrence of Arabia	Col.	$44,824,144	-	n/a	-	12/21/62
4	Sergeant York	WB	$16,361,885	-	n/a	-	7/2/41
5	In Love and War	NL	$14,481,231	1,612	$2,515	1	12/18/96
6	Flyboys	MGM	$13,090,630	2,033	$6,004,219	2,033	9/22/06
7	The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse	MPC	$9,183,673	-	n/a	-	3/6/21
8	A Very Long Engagement	WIP	$6,524,389	219	$101,749	4	11/26/04
9	Gallipoli	Par.	$5,732,587	-	n/a	-	8/28/81
10	Joyeux Noel (Merry Christmas)	SPC	$1,054,361	53	$42,732	6	12/16/05
11	The Exception	A24	$46,993	2	$21,351	2	6/2/17
12	The Red Baron	Mont.	$37,189	19	$13,931	15	3/19/10
13	The Lighthorsemen	Cinc	$33,779	16	$23,645	16	4/8/88
14	Regeneration	All.	$33,131	6	$19,593	6	8/14/98
-	All Quiet on the Western Front	Uni.	n/a	-	n/a	-	4/21/30
-	Paths of Glory	UA	n/a	-	n/a	-	12/25/57
TOTAL (All Movies):			$412,749,505	-	-	-	-

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

According to BOM, Wonder Woman has now earned more than all the other World War 1 set movies combined

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Wonder Woman	WB	$221,460,634	4,165	$103,251,471	4,165	6/2/17
2	War Horse	BV	$79,884,879	2,856	$7,515,402	2,376	12/25/11
3	Lawrence of Arabia	Col.	$44,824,144	-	n/a	-	12/21/62
4	Sergeant York	WB	$16,361,885	-	n/a	-	7/2/41
5	In Love and War	NL	$14,481,231	1,612	$2,515	1	12/18/96
6	Flyboys	MGM	$13,090,630	2,033	$6,004,219	2,033	9/22/06
7	The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse	MPC	$9,183,673	-	n/a	-	3/6/21
8	A Very Long Engagement	WIP	$6,524,389	219	$101,749	4	11/26/04
9	Gallipoli	Par.	$5,732,587	-	n/a	-	8/28/81
10	Joyeux Noel (Merry Christmas)	SPC	$1,054,361	53	$42,732	6	12/16/05
11	The Exception	A24	$46,993	2	$21,351	2	6/2/17
12	The Red Baron	Mont.	$37,189	19	$13,931	15	3/19/10
13	The Lighthorsemen	Cinc	$33,779	16	$23,645	16	4/8/88
14	Regeneration	All.	$33,131	6	$19,593	6	8/14/98
-	All Quiet on the Western Front	Uni.	n/a	-	n/a	-	4/21/30
-	Paths of Glory	UA	n/a	-	n/a	-	12/25/57
TOTAL (All Movies):			$412,749,505	-	-	-	-

 

[Daxtreme]

BTW, I've been seeing all these "Wonder Woman best drops since Spider-Man in 2002" posts all over the place (mostly reddit), or most notably, "WW might get best multi since Spider-Man in 2002"...

 

I'd just like to point out that Guardians of the Galaxy had a 3.53 multiplier, while Spider-Man had a 3.52 multiplier.

 

So if anything...

 

.

.

.

GOTG is the movie to beat purely in terms of legs 

 

Wonder Woman having more than a 3.53 multiplier (GOTG) would make it the leggiest superhero movie since... Batman Returns in 1992 I guess? (Friday and $40M+ openers only) -- Depends on the OW threshold. 

 

More than 3.56 would mean best legs since Tim Burton's Batman... and to beat Batman she would need a 6+ modifier, so that's where the fun stops.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy is the leggiest superhero movie since 1992, I don't know why everyone's going with Spider-Man. Of course one of the non-Friday openers could also be the big winner, but we can't compare them with Friday openers, for obvious reasons.

 

So yeah, I can understand why everyone's going for that headline, since, well "Heading for best multi since Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014" sounds much less awesome than 2002. 

 

fun stuff: Replace $40M+ openers with only big openers ($70M+) and Wonder Woman would become the leggiest superhero movie of all-time with just a 3.54 multiplier.

 

Superhero movies are so front-loaded

 

source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?view=main&sort=date&order=DESC&pagenum=1&id=superhero.htm

 

I say the leggiest Superhero movie in recent years is The Force Awakens with 3.78 

 

[Barnack]

22 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Wonder Woman having more than a 3.53 multiplier (GOTG) would make it the leggiest superhero movie since... Batman Returns in 1992 I guess? (Friday and $40M+ openers only) -- Depends on the OW threshold. 

 

 

In the 2000's

 

2005: Batman begin: 4.24

2004: Spider man 2: 4.23 (not a friday opening thought)

2006: Superman : 3.8

 

[Cochofles]

30 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

BTW, I've been seeing all these "Wonder Woman best drops since Spider-Man in 2002" posts all over the place (mostly reddit), or most notably, "WW might get best multi since Spider-Man in 2002"...

 

[. . .]

source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?view=main&sort=date&order=DESC&pagenum=1&id=superhero.htm

 

I say the leggiest Superhero movie in recent years is The Force Awakens with 3.78 

 

 

I am confused by that link. Why are Wonder Woman, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Power Rangers 1, 2, and 3 on that list?

 

Also, I have not read a single headline about WW possibly getting the best multiplier since Spidey's first film, but many headlines about the best second-weekend drop since SM1's second weekend, which is apparently true. 

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2017 by Cochofles

[Daxtreme]

39 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

In the 2000's

 

2005: Batman begin: 4.24

2004: Spider man 2: 4.23 (not a friday opening thought)

2006: Superman : 3.8

 

 

Like I said...

 

1 hour ago, Daxtreme said:

(Friday and $40M+ openers only)

 

Can't compare Friday openers with non-Friday openers.

 

edit: All 3 movies you mentioned opened on a wednesday.

 

edit#2: Replying to @Cochofles

 

35 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

 

I am confused by that link. Why are Wonder Woman, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Power Rangers 1, 2, and 3 on that list?

 

Also, I have not read a single headline about WW possibly getting the best multiplier since Spidey's first film, but many headlines about the best second-weekend drop since SM1's second weekend, which is apparently true. 

 

 

 

 

Well, the link is simply a list of superhero movies, which you can order by release date, dom total, OW, etc. (it's currently ordered by release date if you follow the link)

 

I based my calculations off that list.

 

As for headlines, they're not quite headlines per se, just posts I've seen with a lot of upvotes on community-based websites, even though they're not exact When your post is being read by thousands of users however, it's not far from being an actual headline that people remember.

Edited June 14, 2017 by Daxtreme

[MikeQ]

To add to Daxtreme's great post, I have a list of comic book film multipliers I had made. I've copied it below (films with 3+ multipliers are in red):

 

Live Action Comic Book Film Multipliers for $40+ million Openers

 

Rank / Title (Year) / Opening Weekend Gross (Multiplier)

1. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 207.4 million (3.00)
2. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 191.3 million (2.40)
3. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 179.1 million (2.28)
4. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 174.1 million (2.35)
5. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 166.0 million (1.99)
6. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 160.9 million (2.79)
7. The Dark Knight (2008) — 158.4 million (3.38)
8. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 151.1 million (2.23)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 146.4 million (2.51)^
10. Suicide Squad (2016) — 133.7 million (2.43)
11. Deadpool (2016) — 132.4 million (2.74)
12. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 128.1 million (2.44)
13. Man of Steel (2013) — 116.6 million (2.50)
14. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52)
15. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (2.14)^
16. X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 102.8 million (2.28)
17. Iron Man (2008) — 98.6 million (3.23)
18. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 95.0 million (2.73)
19. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
20. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 91.6 million (2.21)
21. X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 90.8 million (2.58)
22. Logan (2017) — 88.4 million (2.56)
23. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 88.2 million* 
24. Thor: The Dark World (2013) — 85.7 million (2.41)
25. X2: X-Men United (2003) — 85.6 million (2.51)
26. Doctor Strange (2016) — 85.1 million (2.74)
27. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) — 85.1 million (2.11)

The rest ($40-80 million openers) in spoilers for space reasons:

 

Spoiler

 

28. 300 (2007) — 70.9 million (2.97)
29. X-Men: Apocalypse (2016) — 65.8 million (2.36)
30. Thor (2011) — 65.7 million (2.75)
31. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) — 65.6 million (2.92)
32. Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) — 65.1 million (2.72)
33. Hulk (2003) — 62.1 million (2.13)
34. The Amazing Spider-Man (2012) — 62.0 million**
35. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) — 58.1 million (2.27)
36. Ant-Man (2015) — 57.2 million (3.15)
37. Fantastic Four (2005) — 56.1 million (2.76)
38. The Incredible Hulk (2008) — 55.4 million (2.43)
39. Watchmen (2009) — 55.2 million (1.95)
40. X-Men: First Class (2011) — 55.1 million (2.66)
41. MIB 3 (2012) — 54.6 million (3.28)
42. X-Men (2000) — 54.5 million (2.89)
43. Green Lantern (2011) — 53.2 million (2.19)
44. The Wolverine (2013) — 53.1 million (2.49)
45. Batman Forever (1995) — 52.8 million (3.49)
46. Superman Returns (2006) — 52.5 million*
47. Men in Black II (2002) — 52.1 million*
48. Men in Black (1997) — 51.1 million*
49. Batman Begins (2005) — 48.7 million*
50. Batman Returns (1992) — 45.7 million (3.56)
51. Ghost Rider (2007) — 45.4 million (2.55)
52. 300: Rise of an Empire (2014) — 45.0 million (2.37)
53. Batman and Robin (1997) — 42.9 million (2.50)
54. Batman (1989) — 40.5 million (6.20)
55. Daredevil (2003) — 40.3 million (2.54)

 

 

 

 

*Wednesday Opener (thus not comparable)

**Tuesday Opener (thus not comparable)

^So Far - Box Office Run Not Yet Complete

 

Obviously the size of the opening and time of year matter (and films were once leggier than they are now), but it is interesting to compare multipliers for comic book films that opened on a Friday. As Daxtreme mentioned and as we can see above, it is relatively rare for a major comic book film to reach a 3 multiplier.

 

Wonder Woman will certainly join the 3+ multiplier club - the question is, how far can it go? Will it pass Spider-Man and Guardians of the Galaxy to become the leggiest comic book of any $50+ million opener? I don't think it will at this point, but its legs are proving to be super sexy nonetheless, and the fact that it will join the 3+ multiplier club is impressive as is.

 

Also as Daxtreme mentioned, it is easy to forget that Guardians of the Galaxy has the best multiplier of any comic book film with a $50+ million opening. Really impressive.

 

And obviously given the size of the opening (largest opening weekend at the time, and still the third largest opening weekend ever), The Avengers’ reaching a 3 multiplier is really impressive.

 

I would say The Dark Knight’s multiplier is also very impressive — a 3.38 multiplier off of a $158.4 million opening, which again was the largest opening weekend of all time at the time it opened! (I sometimes forget that fact.) 

 

Batman (1989), Batman Returns (1992), and Batman Forever (1995) all owned the largest opening weekend of all time at the time they opened (wow), and all went on to 3+ multipliers (and well above that in the case of Batman), though they all definitely opened in a different era in which films were leggier.

 

And we can definitely get into a discussion of other impressive multipliers within context. For example, Deadpool (an ‘R’ rated film) opened huge and had a strong 2.74 multiplier given it’s February opening and inflated opening due to Valentine’s Day.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited June 14, 2017 by MikeQ

[MovieMan89]

SM1/GOTG1 multi might be impossible regardless of the WOM given how stacked with appealing movies July is. Spidey, Apes, and Dunkirk offer a lot of formidable competition to its late legs. WOM or not, I think we all know GOTG1 multi never would have been that if it hadn't had the luxury of zero big competition in its late legs (or its whole run in general). But otherwise I'd be all in on 3.5x+ happening for WW. As it is, I'll guess around 3.35x is where it gets to. 

Edited June 15, 2017 by MovieMan89

[WrathOfHan]

New WW forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 10.8M (232.3M Total)

Jun 16: 33M (16M weekdays, 281.3M Total)

Jun 23: 18M (10M weekdays, 309.3M Total)

Jun 30: 10M (8M weekdays, 327.3M Total)

Jul 7: 5M (3.5M weekdays, 335.8M Total)

Jul 14: 2.5M (1.9M weekdays, 339.2M Total)

Jul 21: 1.3M (1M weekdays, 341.5M Total)

Jul 28: 800k (600k weekdays, 342.9M Total)

 

Final Total: 346M (3.35x) (Swear I didn't steal that multi from MovieMan lol)

Edited June 15, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Daxtreme]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Jun 16: 33M (16M weekdays, 281.3M Total)

 

I think you meant 41M here

 

There's this club that needs to win, you know  

[Plain Old Tele]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

New WW forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 10.8M (232.3M Total)

Jun 16: 33M (16M weekdays, 281.3M Total)

Jun 23: 18M (10M weekdays, 309.3M Total)

Jun 30: 10M (8M weekdays, 327.3M Total)

Jul 7: 5M (3.5M weekdays, 335.8M Total)

Jul 14: 2.5M (1.9M weekdays, 339.2M Total)

Jul 21: 1.3M (1M weekdays, 341.5M Total)

Jul 28: 800k (600k weekdays, 342.9M Total)

 

Final Total: 346M (3.35x) (Swear I didn't steal that multi from MovieMan lol)

 

You think it's going to have four consecutive weeks of 50% weekend drops?

[KeepItU25071906]

5 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

You think it's going to have four consecutive weeks of 50% weekend drops?

I suppose, we should read "You want" instead "You think".

 

It's happened when you don't like a movie, WrathOfHan.

[WrathOfHan]

32 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

You think it's going to have four consecutive weeks of 50% weekend drops?

 

23 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

I suppose, we should read "You want" instead "You think".

 

It's happened when you don't like a movie, WrathOfHan.

Spider-Man will cause it to take a toll, and it will continue losing theaters. Sorry I'm not predicting this to hit 400M!

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

 

Spider-Man will cause it to take a toll, and it will continue losing theaters. Sorry I'm not predicting this to hit 400M!

 

Both of these things can be true and it could still (easily) not drop 50% for four straight weeks. That's basically as if you think it essentially has tapped out of its prospective audience. I guess we'll see.

[aabattery]

Guardians only dropped 36% last weekend despite the presence of Wonder Woman. Don't see why the same wouldn't happen with WW. It might have one bigger drop on Spider-Man's OW but then I think it'll get back to normal.

[MrGlass2]

5 hours ago, Daxtreme said:

Can't compare Friday openers with non-Friday openers.

 

Can't compare August openers with non-August openers either, and that is why GOTG is not mentioned as often.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

New WW forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 10.8M (232.3M Total)

Jun 16: 33M (16M weekdays, 281.3M Total)

Jun 23: 18M (10M weekdays, 309.3M Total)

Jun 30: 10M (8M weekdays, 327.3M Total)

Jul 7: 5M (3.5M weekdays, 335.8M Total)

Jul 14: 2.5M (1.9M weekdays, 339.2M Total)

Jul 21: 1.3M (1M weekdays, 341.5M Total)

Jul 28: 800k (600k weekdays, 342.9M Total)

 

Final Total: 346M (3.35x) (Swear I didn't steal that multi from MovieMan lol)

 

Is this your 1st predict of the ending legs?  If it is and you have confidence in it, I'll make you a Casino best that this goes over 346M...25 points, no big risk or reward for either of us, and right now before we get any more numbers...

I'll even spot you a mil in case you have rounding error and take over 347m:)...

 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Is this your 1st predict of the ending legs?  If it is and you have confidence in it, I'll make you a Casino best that this goes over 346M...25 points, no big risk or reward for either of us, and right now before we get any more numbers...

I'll even spot you a mil in case you have rounding error and take over 347m:)...

 

That bet is a bit too close for my liking. Up it to 355 or so and I'd take it.