Wednesday Numbers: DUNKIRK:$5.17M Down 30% | GT:$3.16M | SHM:$2.79M | APES:$2.13M | DP3:$1.94M | VAL:$1.4M | BD:$0.82M | WW:$0.65M

[FantasticBeasts]

I will say that the drop is closer to bad than it is to good If you take into account the Tuesday bump but yet again, obviously nothing really worrying.

150m is 100% locked. Time will tell whether 200m can happen.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

WE SHALL RE-DOUBLE OUR EFFORTS.

 

Purchasing tickets for Saturday. And Sunday,

Well don't empty your bank account now.

[Ethan Hunt]

Apes has to stabilize at some point right?

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I will say that the drop is closer to bad than it is to good If you take into account the Tuesday bump but yet again, obviously nothing really worrying.

150m is 100% locked. Time will tell whether 200m can happen.

 

I haven't believed in the 200m dream but I would say that's pretty close to dead barring a huge weekend recovery (I say recovery as if weekdays are bad but they're not at all, we're holding this movie to such a standard as if a 50% drop would be bad). Talking 66% increase on Friday and 40% increase on Saturday type recovery and staying about flat today. I hope that 175 is still attainable however.

Edited July 27, 2017 by MrPink

[a2k]

Thinking DUNKIRK will drop 51.5% for 24.5m.

 

Thu 4.85 (-6%)

Fri 7 (+44%)

Sat 10 (+43%)

Sun 7.5 (-25%)

2nd Weekend 24.5

 

EDIT: Folks have pointed out 44% jump on Fri is low. 50-55% gives 25.5-26 weekend (48-49% drop)

Edited July 27, 2017 by a2knet

[FantasticBeasts]

4 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I haven't believed in the 200m dream but I would say that's pretty close to dead barring a huge weekend recovery. Talking 66% increase on Friday and 40% increase on Saturday type recovery and staying about flat today. I hope that 175 is still attainable however.

Basically Dunkrik will be a huge success no matter what the exact final number is. Nolan has proven himself to be a very big "draw".

I personally thought that legs would be a tad shorter than the typical Nolan film just because I always counted the Harry Styles factor more than everyone else here. We shall see what the final will be.

I guess the range feels 150m-220 or sth like that.

Edited July 27, 2017 by FantasticBeasts

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Apes has to stabilize at some point right?

 

So many good adult only movies around that aren't sequels is not helping its cause...

 

When you have Dunkirk, Girls Trip, Baby Driver, The Big Sick, (and now new movies Ghost Story and Atomic Blonde, both with uncertain quality), where do you think the 3rd trilogy movie is gonna fall on the ticket buying order...

 

If Apes had Pirates spot, I think it would have made $50-$75M more b/c of the adult movie wasteland of May/June (ie - they were all pretty bad)...but now we're in adult movie nirvana, and it's not good to be the franchise in the sea of amazing new, then...

Edited July 27, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I haven't believed in the 200m dream but I would say that's pretty close to dead barring a huge weekend recovery (I say recovery as if weekdays are bad but they're not at all, we're holding this movie to such a standard as if a 50% drop would be bad). Talking 66% increase on Friday and 40% increase on Saturday type recovery and staying about flat today. I hope that 175 is still attainable however.

 

66% is a tough increase to get since it's already maxing out IMAX in a lot of locations on weekdays

[WrathOfHan]

5.2M (-30%)

4.7M (-10%)

 

7.5M (+60%)

10.5M (+40%)

7.7M (-27%)

25.7M Weekend, 49% drop

Edited July 27, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Apes has to stabilize at some point right?

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Thinking DUNKIRK will drop 51.5% for 24.5m.

 

Thu 4.85 (-6%)

Fri 7 (+44%)

Sat 10 (+43%)

Sun 7.5 (-25%)

2nd Weekend 24.5

 

I think will increase more than that on Friday. This movie skews older like Apes which jumped 60% on second Friday. I don't figure college and high school kids are that interested in seeing the movie. 

[MrPink]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

66% is a tough increase to get since it's already maxing out IMAX in a lot of locations on weekdays

 

Believe me, I don't think that'll happen. I'm just saying that would be the kind of numbers it would need to make 200m feel like a small possibility again. Thinking 4.8 Thursday, then around 55-60% on Friday and 35-40% on Sat.

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I think will increase more than that on Friday. This movie skews older like Apes which jumped 60% on second Friday. I don't figure college and high school kids are that interested in seeing the movie. 

This is skewing younger than Apes did; a third of the audience was under 25 IIRC. I wouldn't be surprised if the Friday increase is around 55%

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

This is skewing younger than Apes did; a third of the audience was under 25 IIRC. I wouldn't be surprised if the Friday increase is around 55%

 

Still a lot better than 44%

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I think will increase more than that on Friday. This movie skews older like Apes which jumped 60% on second Friday. I don't figure college and high school kids are that interested in seeing the movie. 

Yeah. 50-55% Fri jump could give it 25.5-26 weekend, 48-49% drop.

[John Marston]

not a great drop after a muted Tuesday increase

[Michael Seng Wah]

Hopefully it crosses 100mil by Sunday.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, MrPink said:

 

WE SHALL RE-DOUBLE OUR EFFORTS.

 

Purchasing tickets for Saturday. And Sunday,

I hope so for your sake, Mr. Pink.  If you let this fall by 50% this weekend, you will have to deal with Nolan, and he is not as forgiving as the loonies.

[titanic2187]

29 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Apes has to stabilize at some point right?

no way, this is because of their short legs.....

 

[a2k]

How March vs July takes place for movies with same legs... [BOT reactions in italics]

 

1st Wknd   10

Mon-Thu      5

2nd Wknd  4 (-60%)     Change the director, flop, meltdown, make a www thread

Cume 19

 

1st Wknd   10

Mon-Thu      3

2nd Wknd  6 (-40%)    Director is god, 2 more sequels, next one will do double, 8x multi incoming

Cume 19