Weak-end Thread | Hitman's Bodyguard 21.6M; Annabelle 15.5M; Logan Lucky 8M; Dunkirk 6.7M | Wonder Woman beats Spider-Man and is now at 404M

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Thanks for this! 

 

I had no idea about that. Makes sense as to why most studios have their movies dropping that much then. 

 

The best case scenario is that it manages to stay flat with estimates like Annabelle last weekend but I wouldn't be surprised if it's around 30% or so.

Edited August 20, 2017 by MrPink

[Lestranger]

I have been using MoviePass for a few years now. The pricing fluctuated erratically in the last couple years, but I have always found it to be an awesome service. It has some large flaws, but I think the idea behind it so sound that any problems are easily glossed over. It is strange seeing all this buzz for the it when the new low pricing was announced. Reddit basically lost its mind for two days afterwards. That response says a lot more than anything else about the company or how it works or will work moving forward.

 

Financially the move to $10/month makes zero sense. It is so absurd that it must have been clear to the company that this was a short lived promotional campaign. The deal states it will last for a year BUT there is limited space. My guess is they have a number of new users in mind at the $10 tier, and then they will cut it off. This large group of new users gives them a lot of power against the the movie theater chains. One thing to remember is that frequent moviegoers are responsible for almost half of all ticket revenue. That is, their lifetime value is much higher than the average moviegoer. MoviePass is a concentrated group of these highly valuable customers. Outside of the ticket revenue, having this group of "whales" pre-selected and tagged is worth a lot to marketers.

 

But even beyond the economics and strategy, the MoviePass announcement, in and of itself, demonstrated that the movie theater business model may have some structural cracks. The number of tickets sold may never go up again (per capita). Theaters have been adjusting to the change in customer behavior by raising ticket prices, adding 3D, and creating more luxury experiences. But this attempt to maintain profits has created an inflated ticket price to avg income. In 2017, the average movie ticket costs 2x in terms of personal income than it did in 1990. If they keep raising the price of tickets, theaters will create an anti-growth spiral. The ecstatic response to MoviePass' new pricing suggest there is a massive amount of untapped demand for movie theaters. 

 

Ultimately, the movie theater industry needs to question their basic business model. I can't think of many other industries that would allow their capital to just sit there not being utilized. Every empty seat and every moment a movie is not playing in their theater is lost revenue. This is not to say they should be running 24/7, but the business is still under the assumption that their product is an "event" instead of normal leisure activity. I think the move towards a gym-like subscription model makes a ton of sense. I go to the theater about 3x as much using MoviePass as a I did without it. Maybe even more. Even MoviePass fails, the cat is out of the bag. This is what people want, and consumers always win in the end. So the theater chains can either get ahead of it or get left behind.

Edited August 20, 2017 by Lestranger

[WrathOfHan]

27 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Good Time is DOA. No two ways about that. It is only in 20 theaters and the PTA is like 8500.

 

Any weekend numbers for Ingrid Goes West?

It wasn't even 2k ahead of what A Ghost Story's 2nd weekend PTA was. Granted, this is having much stronger WOM and might actually find an audience over the next two weeks, but things aren't looking too hot.

 

Ingrid Goes West per Deadline: Ingrid Goes West (NEON), 26 theaters (+23) / $123k Fri./$89K Sat/$53K Sun/PTA: $10,2 k/ 3-day cume: $266k (+97%)/Total: $439K/Wk 2

 

That's very good IMO

[Finnick]

DUNKIRK CLOSING TO $400M WORLD WIDE, STILL TO OPEN IN CHINA, JAPAN & ITALY

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$165,508,079	42.1%
+ Foreign:	$227,200,000	57.9%
= Worldwide:	$392,708,079

 

TRANSFORMERS 5 CROSSED $600M WW,

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$130,098,855	21.6%
+ Foreign:	$471,000,000	78.4%
= Worldwide:	$601,098,855

 

 

[forg]

Why is this month so thin. Next weekend is so dire, there's a chance we could have #1 below 10M.... Hopefully not and Hitman's Bodyguard or Annabelle will have good holds

[MrPink]

Just now, forg said:

Why is this month so thin. Next weekend is so dire, there's a chance we could have #1 below 10M.... Hopefully not and Hitman's Bodyguard or Annabelle will have good holds

 

I think Hitman's Bodyguard can make it but GoT and the McGregor/Mayweather fight are wild card factors that could hurt that. Otherwise it'd probably have little problem staying above 10.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

It wasn't even 2k ahead of what A Ghost Story's 2nd weekend PTA was. Granted, this is having much stronger WOM and might actually find an audience over the next two weeks, but things aren't looking too hot.

 

Ingrid Goes West per Deadline: Ingrid Goes West (NEON), 26 theaters (+23) / $123k Fri./$89K Sat/$53K Sun/PTA: $10,2 k/ 3-day cume: $266k (+97%)/Total: $439K/Wk 2

 

That's very good IMO

It is strong yeah, I think it has a better chance at a successful expansion than Good Time.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Something was way off about The Big Sick's Friday estimate. I think it was listed as having a 279% increase to earn 535K. Yet, the weekend estimate is slightly over 1 million and BOM has 322 as its Friday take.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

I think Hitman's Bodyguard can make it but GoT and the McGregor/Mayweather fight are wild card factors that could hurt that. Otherwise it'd probably have little problem staying above 10.

Yeah, I don't see THB falling below 10M, but that one/two punch cannot be ignored next weekend. I'd say Sunday drops would be better, but GOT's finale should pull MASSIVE numbers.

[Premium George]

How much viewers, MvsM is expected to attract?

[Webslinger]

The Hitman's Bodyguard should be able to stay above $10 million next weekend, but we're definitely getting a single-digit #1 over the three-day portion of Labor Day weekend.

[forg]

Cars 3 will crawl to 150M and is only at 308M worldwide. I know it's profitable with merchandising but these are disappointing numbers. 

[John Marston]

Transformers: The Last Knight crawls over 600m

 

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$130,098,855	21.6%
+ Foreign:	$471,000,000	78.4%
= Worldwide:	$601,098,855

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Annabelle: Creation may make OS more than Valerian WW.

[Nova]

Does Collider not know that THB opens internationally and is expected to make some decent money in China? 

 

With no help from the foreign box office, The Hitman’s Bodyguard will likely still eek out a profit but just barely.

[MinaTakla]

DM3

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$251,740,230	26.5%
+ Foreign:	$696,700,000	73.5%
= Worldwide:	$948,440,230

 

DM3 is now at 948.44m WW. It has added 27.44m approx in the last 7 days. 

Last week, it added 39.5m. 

This is a drop of only -30%. Thanks to Obon boost, it has had it best week-to-week drop ever since its launch.

Italy, Greece and Turkey are yet to open.

 

[RyneOh1040]

33 minutes ago, Lestranger said:

I have been using MoviePass for a few years now. The pricing fluctuated erratically in the last couple years, but I have always found it to be an awesome service. It has some large flaws, but I think the idea behind it so sound that any problems are easily glossed over. It is strange seeing all this buzz for the it when the new low pricing was announced. Reddit basically lost its mind for two days afterwards. That response says a lot more than anything else about the company or how it works or will work moving forward.

 

Financially the move to $10/month makes zero sense. It is so absurd that it must have been clear to the company that this was a short lived promotional campaign. The deal states it will last for a year BUT there is limited space. My guess is they have a number of new users in mind at the $10 tier, and then they will cut it off. This large group of new users gives them a lot of power against the the movie theater chains. One thing to remember is that frequent moviegoers are responsible for almost half of all ticket revenue. That is, their lifetime value is much higher than the average moviegoer. MoviePass is a concentrated group of these highly valuable customers. Outside of the ticket revenue, having this group of "whales" pre-selected and tagged is worth a lot to marketers.

 

But even beyond the economics and strategy, the MoviePass announcement, in and of itself, demonstrated that the movie theater business model may have some structural cracks. The number of tickets sold may never go up again (per capita). Theaters have been adjusting to the change in customer behavior by raising ticket prices, adding 3D, and creating more luxury experiences. But this attempt to maintain profits has created an inflated ticket price to avg income. In 2017, the average movie ticket costs 2x in terms of personal income than it did in 1990. If they keep raising the price of tickets, theaters will create an anti-growth spiral. The ecstatic response to MoviePass' new pricing suggest there is a massive amount of untapped demand for movie theaters. 

 

Ultimately, the movie theater industry needs to question their basic business model. I can't think of many other industries that would allow their capital to just sit there not being utilized. Every empty seat and every moment a movie is not playing in their theater is lost revenue. This is not to say they should be running 24/7, but the business is still under the assumption that their product is an "event" instead of normal leisure activity. I think the move towards a gym-like subscription model makes a ton of sense. I go to the theater about 3x as much using MoviePass as a I did without it. Maybe even more. Even MoviePass fails, the cat is out of the bag. This is what people want, and consumers always win in the end. So the theater chains can either get ahead of it or get left behind.

Yeah, in this sense it reminds of streaming services in the music industry.  Basically Spotify pushed a price point that would lead to MAJOR decreases in revenue for the traditional chains but it was at a cost that consumers were willing to pay.  I was with MoviePass since Beta but I bailed when it hit 50 in Nashville and they started capping the number of users per day that could see a movie based on geographic location.  You're right, if you see more than 4 movies a month it was still viable but I reached a point where I felt OBLIGED to go see movies because of what I was paying and it was starting to feel like a chore instead of a hobby.  Even if they would go back to the 30/month price point I would stay.  But the $99 plan they were doing in the end for all movies including 3D and IMAX was nuts and was for a VERY niche audience.  Seems to me like this was more about raising awareness of the company than anything.

Edited August 20, 2017 by RyneOh1040

[RyneOh1040]

I'm curious as to why Home Again didn't open next weekend.  Even if it gets poor reviews I think Witherspoon back in her biggest genre draw would have given the film the top spot and some good spin for the press.  It will be good counter programming to It but yeah it could have had a bit of short lived glory had it opened the week before.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, RyneOh1040 said:

I'm curious as to why Home Again didn't open next weekend.  Even if it gets poor reviews I think Witherspoon back in her biggest genre draw would have given the film the top spot and some good spin for the press.  It will be good counter programming to It but yeah it could have had a bit of short lived glory had it opened the week before.

Because open Road was/is in charge of releasing it and Open Road doesn't know how to open a movie. 

 

The moment Open Road decides to distribute a movie, you know it's going to end in failure regardless of how appealing, not appealing, good or bad the movie is. 

[John Marston]

Wow at Logan Lucky. Remember when people thought Channing Tatum was a draw?