Classic Conversation Thread

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

And just an hour later...

 

 

Sure, wynaut?

Pretty sure I called this ages ago.

[Barnack]

Hart with cameos of Dwayne Johnson being probably the dream team pick for them.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

40 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pretty sure I called this ages ago.

I'm generally okay with this, but I'm not gonna be happy with the inevitable Hart-Rock bit that's probably going to last 10 minutes. There's probably gonna be a dumb Black Panther skit too.

[The Panda]

I posted this in the Politics Thread, but I feel like it should be posted here too as PSA:

 

Also, on the topic of Recessions, something very big happened today that’s worth taking note of.

 

There’s a major Recession indicator called the yield spread.  Which is a long term bond rate minus a short term bond rate.  Almost always, when these go negative (meaning short term bonds are giving a better return than long term bonds) something very funky is going on in the economy and a recession happens within 3-4 quarters.  

 

The 5 year minus 3 year just went negative, which I wouldn’t use as THE indicator for a recession within a year, but it’s a worrying signal that the 10 year minus 2 year is about to go negative (which has always been a signal for a recession within a year, even the 2007-2008 one)

 

Well, let me shows you the graphs (shaded areas are recessions)

 

10 year - 2 year (this is the one I’d use to signal a recession, which is dangerously close to inverting)

 

 

5 year minus 3 year

 

In short: I’m not going to say there’s going to be a recession in 2020 (or late 2019), but I sure as hell would make sure I’m ready for one in 2020.  For example, if you're planning in graduating college in 2020, you may want to consider applying for a masters program to delay entering the job market.

 

Also, if I were Trump, I'd be very nervous about my re-election chances right now.  Because a recession during an election year is very bad news for the incumbent (especially an unpopular incumbent).

 

Edited December 5, 2018 by PANDA

[DAR]

Whoever the Oscar host it’s a lose/lose situation.  

[WrathOfHan]

41 minutes ago, PANDA said:

For example, if you're planning in graduating college in 2020, you may want to consider applying for a masters program and don't enter the job market.

I'll be graduating in Spring 2021. Greaaaaaaaaaaat

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'll be graduating in Spring 2021. Greaaaaaaaaaaat

Depending on how long the recession would end up (the Great Recession is an outlier in length), you may end up being fine in 2021.  If there is a bad recession going on when you're about to graduate, I'd strongly recommend going for at least a Masters, because lifetime earnings are much better for people in graduate in an expanding economic market than a receding one.

 

I'd definitely give this article a read for a more in-depth explanation on why you don't want to graduate and enter the job market during a recession if you can help it:

https://www.nber.org/digest/nov06/w12159.html

 

A masters degree is a good investment anyways (especially with the rising flood of undergrad degrees).

 

Also, this means @JamesCameronScholar may end up getting that major US dollar depreciation that he wants.  A recession in 2020 would likely mean favorable exchange rates for Avatar 2, if that happens the odds of it topping Avatar would be much greater than they are under current exchange rate markets.  However, his prediction of Trump getting re-elected probably wouldn't turn out if that happened to be the case.

Edited December 5, 2018 by PANDA

[dxmatrixdt]

26 minutes ago, DAR said:

Whoever the Oscar host it’s a lose/lose situation.  

maybe you will volunteer to host the Oscars?

[elcaballero]

8 minutes ago, PANDA said:

Also, this means @JamesCameronScholar may end up getting that major US dollar depreciation that he wants.  A recession in 2020 would likely mean favorable exchange rates for Avatar 2, if that happens the odds of it topping Avatar would be much greater than they are under current exchange rate markets.  However, his prediction of Trump getting re-elected probably wouldn't turn out if that happened to be the case.

Pointing out what really matters. 

[DAR]

https://twitter.com/variety/status/1069707931208245248?s=21

[MrPink]

1 hour ago, PANDA said:

I posted this in the Politics Thread, but I feel like it should be posted here too as PSA:

 

Also, on the topic of Recessions, something very big happened today that’s worth taking note of.

 

There’s a major Recession indicator called the yield spread.  Which is a long term bond rate minus a short term bond rate.  Almost always, when these go negative (meaning short term bonds are giving a better return than long term bonds) something very funky is going on in the economy and a recession happens within 3-4 quarters.  

 

The 5 year minus 3 year just went negative, which I wouldn’t use as THE indicator for a recession within a year, but it’s a worrying signal that the 10 year minus 2 year is about to go negative (which has always been a signal for a recession within a year, even the 2007-2008 one)

 

Well, let me shows you the graphs (shaded areas are recessions)

 

10 year - 2 year (this is the one I’d use to signal a recession, which is dangerously close to inverting)

 

 

5 year minus 3 year

 

In short: I’m not going to say there’s going to be a recession in 2020 (or late 2019), but I sure as hell would make sure I’m ready for one in 2020.  For example, if you're planning in graduating college in 2020, you may want to consider applying for a masters program to delay entering the job market.

 

Also, if I were Trump, I'd be very nervous about my re-election chances right now.  Because a recession during an election year is very bad news for the incumbent (especially an unpopular incumbent).

 

 

Gonna buy a house in 2020 (not related to market) .... curious...

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Gonna buy a house in 2020 (not related to market) .... curious...

Potentially a decent time to buy a house

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, PANDA said:

Potentially a decent time to buy a house

 

I don't think there's ever a decent time to buy a house in DC. Just pain.

[Lordmandeep]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/canadian-radio-stations-baby-it-s-cold-outside-1.4931867

 

 

The Song Baby Its Cold Outside is being banned from Christmas radio this year.

 

I can understand it has suggestive lyrics but using this standard, shouldn't a ton of music be banned?

 

Seems to be a case of selective political correctness because I will hear lyrics like "we feed our b*Itches carrots so they Beep like rabbits" on radio.

 

Or maybe because its a Christmas song it is put to a different standard? 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 5, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[AndyLL]

2 hours ago, PANDA said:

Also, this means @JamesCameronScholar may end up getting that major US dollar depreciation that he wants.  A recession in 2020 would likely mean favorable exchange rates for Avatar 2, if that happens the odds of it topping Avatar would be much greater than they are under current exchange rate markets.  However, his prediction of Trump getting re-elected probably wouldn't turn out if that happened to be the case.

Not only were the ER favorable for Avatar but things were really crappy in the world which made people long to escape into Pandora.

 

Things could be really similar for Avatar Jr.

 

Think JCS planned it that way?

[The Panda]

Many Wall Street investors are saying stories along the lines of “This time it’s different!” about the inverted yield curve.

 

Granted, they may be right, but Wall Street investors were saying the same thing when the yield curve inverted prior to 2007.

 

The article I read was also full of crap because the person they quoted was inferring that the Fed is monitoring the bond rates.  Except the Fed literally has no control over those rates.  It baffles me how economics columns are run by people who economically illiterate.

[dxmatrixdt]

4 hours ago, DAR said:

https://twitter.com/variety/status/1069707931208245248?s=21

hey, so you sometimes bless your fanbase with links of Santa/Christmas material?  THat's cool I guess, I don't like December  since person x in October = person x in January, but I was born to be a Santa child, and demanded to be the spirit of the holidays until puberty, because the environment of everyone celebrating and being themselves just gave me too much anxiety and I was too insecure.  poor family =(  I turned myself into an anti-social Grinch and warmed myself up with a bad attitude.  

  Anyways, I'm wondering if Santa or any of the other humans fly too since the North Pole's reindeer do!  I fly in my dreams and I've grown accustomed to it, but it confuses the hell out of me.  It is all like one big dream now.  🥤

- In God We Trust, - me.

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, MrPink said:

 

I don't think there's ever a decent time to buy a house in DC. Just pain.

With Amazon coming with 25K white collar jobs and Democrats in power (so the government will not contract), buying a home in DC will probably be an arduous endeavor the next few years...good for DC - any recession talk will not be arriving there - bad for DC buyers...

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, DAR said:

Whoever the Oscar host it’s a lose/lose situation.  

Pretty much. Add to that the nonsense they plan on doing this year like having categories presented during commercial break and the chances of it being a decent show are already nil.

[75Live]

avengers 4 thread went to crap