THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[AniNate]

Admissions are going to be even less relevant if dynamic pricing takes off

[Brainbug]

Did @Rth Ragnarok abandon us ? I dont want that Deadline number to be true, i want more

[IronJimbo]

It's looking like sub-700 DOM imo.

[Elessar]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

It's looking like sub-700 DOM imo.

With TFA legs it would do like $830m with an $220m opening. TLJ might have a somewhat shorter life but $700m are still easily possible. If we take Rouge One's multiplier, it would end up with $755m.

Edited December 17, 2017 by Elessar

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

With TFA legs it would do like $830m with an $220m opening. TLJ might have a somewhat shorter life but $700m are still easily possible.

TFA legs were really good, I know it's December but I reckon we're not going to see the massive weekdays like we did last year.  2 years ago

Edited December 17, 2017 by IronJimbo

[That One Girl]

5 hours ago, Lor San Tele said:

ANHESBTLJROTJTFATPMROTSAOTC

 

It’s so dense

[Elessar]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

TFA legs were really good, I know it's December but I reckon we're not going to see the massive weekdays like we did last year.  2 years ago

Sure but even with Rogue One's multiplier it would end its run with $755m. Will it have weaker legs than that? I kinda doubt it. Whether we like it or not, Abadah is in danger!!! 

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Elessar said:

Sure but even with Rogue One's multiplier it would end its run with $755m. Will it have weaker legs than that? I kinda doubt it. Whether we like it or not, Abadah is in danger!!! 

US&Canada is just one region, not bothered if Star Wars beats Avatar there. Just helps me push the narrative that the US is out of touch with the rest of the world.

 

I think it's TFA's multiplier that we use but we decrease it a little bit, after all this isn't the "event" that TFA was.

[JonathanLB]

25 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

It's looking like sub-700 DOM imo.

Hahaha in what world?! It’s looking more like $700M will be the floor, with $800M the ceiling. And also your weekday argument doesn’t work - the holiday period just lasts longer. Many schools (like all of CA!) are out the first week of January so you’ll see non-pathetic weekdays then compared to usual. Everything balances out, days are not lost here. You act like the last time around there were simply more holiday days, which isn’t how this works.

 

PS: Iron Jimbo YOU are out of touch with the rest of the world my friend lol. Avatar 2 will have very little chance to cross $500M. Even if it did, it has next to no chance at $600M. Not everyone has been waiting for a sequel believe it or not

Edited December 17, 2017 by JonathanLB

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Hahaha in what world?! It’s looking more like $700M will be the floor, with $800M the ceiling. And also your weekday argument doesn’t work - the holiday period just lasts longer. Many schools (like all of CA!) are out the first week of January so you’ll see non-pathetic weekdays then compared to usual. Everything balances out, days are not lost here. You act like the last time around there were simply more holiday days, which isn’t how this works.

No, no. I wasn't looking at the calender. I just don't think this will have the same legs TFA did.

 

700m-800m is a reasonable range.. we will see. My initial prediction was 680m to 730m.

 

5 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

PS: Iron Jimbo YOU are out of touch with the rest of the world my friend lol. Avatar 2 will have very little chance to cross $500M. Even if it did, it has next to no chance at $600M. Not everyone has been waiting for a sequel believe it or not

I'm out of touch with the rest of the world (not America) because Avatar will do bad in America? If Avatar has $500m from US&Canada that would further prove that America is out of touch, as Avatar's floor is $3b world wide.

Edited December 17, 2017 by IronJimbo

[RandomCat]

...i wake to very strange things. You people are weird. And I'm pretty sure this forum has ruined my childhood and wiped it's ass with my future.

Edited December 17, 2017 by Sand-omJC

[JonathanLB]

It doesn't need to have the same legs, and I agree it won't. I would assume a safe bet is 3.5x OW, a bit above Rogue One, but not much. If it does have unexpectedly weaker legs, like 3.25x, then it would still hit $715M... So I don't really know how it's reasonably going to miss $700M short of way lower legs. Anything IS possible, of course, that's why you can't predict the future, but if we're going to say 3.0x is possible then so is 4.0.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, JonathanLB said:

It doesn't need to have the same legs, and I agree it won't. I would assume a safe bet is 3.5x OW, a bit above Rogue One, but not much. If it does have unexpectedly weaker legs, like 3.25x, then it would still hit $715M... So I don't really know how it's reasonably going to miss $700M short of way lower legs. Anything IS possible, of course, that's why you can't predict the future, but if we're going to say 3.0x is possible then so is 4.0.

Yeah upon further reflection it's prob landing around $750m. By the way how much do you think Avatar 2 will make world wide? (I'll remember for when the time comes).

[a2k]

+6% from true Friday. SW7 was +10%. Totally understandable for a sequel.

104.8 + 63.6 + 50.8 (-20%) = 219.2

[TigerPaw]

Saw Adam Driver's pics, looks okay, I still feel that the sexiest guy in Star Wars is Chirrut Imwe(Donnie Yen) from Rogue One.

 

Who knews behind that Jedi-ish/Monk Robe is such a fit physque?

 

@Rth Ragnarok, is this sacrifice enough for the Sat numbers? Haha.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2017 by TigerPaw

[JonathanLB]

18 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Yeah upon further reflection it's prob landing around $750m. By the way how much do you think Avatar 2 will make world wide? (I'll remember for when the time comes).

It will do very well worldwide. I don’t know the international markets like I know domestic but let’s say I believe Avatar 2 lands at $475M domestic, it can do another $1 billion worldwide and if China is big for it then maybe $1.25 billion. So I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Avatar 2 make anywhere from $1.5B worldwide to $1.75 billion. I just think it has less than a snowball’s chance in hell of catching TFA in North America. That gross number is truly astounding. It’s nothing against Avatar, I saw it 3 times in theaters, own 3 copies of it on Blu-ray, and I’ll be watching the sequel. I’m just not convinced it’ll have the type of hype and crossover appeal to every segment of the audience. Any film fan or blockbuster viewer will be there but that’s enough for $300M. Beyond that you need help, so when you crossover outside of that you see Wonder Woman $100M above, and well outside of that you see Rogue One, on another level entirely Avengers and Jurassic World. Then you have the first Avatar which hasn’t been seriously challenged besides TFA... and now TLJ, but it’ll be close. I hate to say it but my gut instinct is TLJ falls just $15-20M short of Avatar. Call it a hunch. 

Edited December 17, 2017 by JonathanLB

[a2k]

4 hours ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

I'll wait for actuals but those Deadline numbers are very concerning for TLJ. Ol' Bob Iger and Kathleen Kennedy may be due for some real soul searching once this weekend is through.

Maybe Fox should buy Disney.

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

It will do very well worldwide. I don’t know the international markets like I know domestic but let’s say I believe Avatar 2 lands at $475M domestic, it can do another $1 billion worldwide and if China is big for it then maybe $1.25 billion. So I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Avatar 2 make anywhere from $1.5B worldwide to $1.75 billion. I just think it has less than a snowball’s chance in hell of catching TFA in North America. That gross number is truly astounding. It’s nothing against Avatar, I saw it 3 times in theaters, own 3 copies of it on Blu-ray, and I’ll be watching the sequel. I’m just not convinced it’ll have the type of hype and crossover appeal to every segment of the audience. Any film fan or blockbuster viewer will be there but that’s enough for $300M. Beyond that you need help, so when you crossover outside of that you see Wonder Woman $100M above, and well outside of that you see Rogue One, on another level entirely Avengers and Jurassic World. Then you have the first Avatar which hasn’t been seriously challenged besides TFA... and now TLJ, but it’ll be close. I hate to say it but my gut instinct is TLJ falls just $15-20M short of Avatar. Call it a hunch. 

Agree with the TLJ stuff but your Avatar predictions are waaaaay off! Avatar made over $2b overseas. May I remind you Avatar sold 20million more tickets than The Force Awakens in Europe, it was the highest grossing film in China making $200m. The highest grossing film in China now has made $800m.. so it's more than possible we see Avatar with close to a billion from China alone.

[CoolioD1]

if we're talking about the hottest guy in star wars, i think the answer is pretty obvious.

 

Spoiler

 

[baumer]

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

It's looking like sub-700 DOM imo.

 

I don't see how that is going to happen.  A normal Christmas season multiplier of 3.3 gives it 726.  I'd say 800 is the target.  The audience reaction to this is quite positive.