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FlashMaster659

Monday #s - TLJ 21.6M

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43 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Rogue One’s second Monday was over 80% higher than its first Monday so TLJ should do gangbusters next week, especially since it’s Christmas. $35M seems likely, if not more. TFA’s Monday record may even bite the dust.

This. Depending on how things work it could realistically be 40-42m next Monday but hard to predict when it's already playing so large. 

 

Either way it should increase around 80%+ from whatever Sundays number is which will be key. 

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1 hour ago, MattW said:

Even knowing Monday's number this seems hard to predict:

 

22.5 Tue

20.5 Wed

22 Thu

31 Fri

40 Sat

21 Sun

 

Not feeling certain at all though. 

Using 22 Thu, looking at 2006 imo :

 

Fri 30 (+36%)

Sat 33 (+10%)

Sun 16 (-51.5%) // 79 3-day, -64% from 220

Mon 37 (+130%) // record

Tue 38 (+3%) // record ; am guessing Tue will be bigger than Monday and both days combined will be around 75

= 154 5-day (79 FSS + 75 MT)

 

79 3-day may seem unrealistically low, but RO fell 59% in 2nd weekend despite being a non-sequel, even if a spin-off, and Christmas eve on Sunday will be hard on SW8. Saturday night itself may slow-down.

 

EDIT: just to finish the weekdays,

Wed 23 (-40%)

Thu 21 (-10%)

= 119 Mon-Thu (37 + 38 + 23 + 21)

Edited by a2knet
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5 hours ago, narniadis said:

Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Christmas day is around 35m with a similar 26th. Again y'all are not grasping what a 25th on Monday will do to the box office next week. 

 

I have Christmas Day at around 40.  :ohmyzod:

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2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Is this thing even going to hit $700mil?

Also i love the school excuse, wasnt there only like 30% of people under 25 who saw the film opening weekend?.

 

It's going to kick a lot of butt next week with schools out and people taking vacation from work. $700m should be pretty much locked to happen. Rogue One type multiplier would get it over $750m. Question is whether it can beat that and make a push closer to $800m.

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4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Is this thing even going to hit $700mil?

Also i love the school excuse, wasnt there only like 30% of people under 25 who saw the film opening weekend?.

Lol, for people who follow box office a lot of people on this board sure hate looking at historical comps.  Kids being out of school (and hence people being out of work with their kids) matters a ton.  Look at the Monday drops from 2006 when the dates aligned.  TLJ's drop is completely normal and actually better than Pursuit of Happyness which opened way lower and had tremendous legs (no, TLJ won't have anywhere near those legs). 

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Well this isn't the orig trilogy days, i dont know how big Star Wars is with kids these days. The OW split would show that Star Wars is more for adults these days, the people who were kids in the orig trilogy days.

Anyway after some of the stupid shit in this film, a $650mil total will suit me fine.:redcapes:

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3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Well this isn't the orig trilogy days, i dont know how big Star Wars is with kids these days. The OW split would show that Star Wars is more for adults these days, the people who were kids in the orig trilogy days.

Anyway after some of the stupid shit in this film, a $650mil total will suit me fine.:redcapes:

 

A sub-3x over the holidays? Good luck with that. 

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