That One Girl Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Lor San Tele said: A sub-3x over the holidays? Good luck with that. star trek nemesis got a sub-3x therefore the last jedi will get a sub-3x 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said: Maybe this will help some of the people who are having trouble processing how the numbers will work for a year when the calendar is like this.... http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=pursuitofhappyness.htm Actually I'm having some trouble processing the $22.2M made internationally on Monday, it's to my understanding that TFA made $41.7m overseas on it's first Monday so I'm going to need some professional help with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 hours ago, stuart360 said: Is this thing even going to hit $700mil? Also i love the school excuse, wasnt there only like 30% of people under 25 who saw the film opening weekend?. I am not the best box office predictor/analyst/prognosticator but I do know that the box office is never just about the numbers. There are all kinds of variables to take into account. For example, in 2015, schools here in Canada were already out and they went back to school the first week of January. This year, school goes right up until Friday and they don't go back until January 8th. Different week this time. So the drop has nothing to do with quality or bad wom but more to do with who is able to see it this week. I also know that 700 is almost a foregone conclusion just based of historical data. You can look at any tent-pole released in December and you can see that a 3.5X isn't very hard to achieve. The Hobbit, which was polarizing for sure, had a 3.5X. Now I'm not saying that TLJ will absolutely get a 3.5X, but to get past 700, all it needs is 3.18. That will be accomplished quite easily imo. You are also not giving enough attention to what the numbers will look like next week. Just throwing out some possibilities, but this is what the week could look like: Monday: 21.8 Tues: 23.9 Wed: 18 Thurs: 19 Fri: 31.5 (+65%) Sat: 37.8(+20%) Sun: 19 (-50%) Monday: (if it follows NATM) 40, if it follows almost any other movie in the top ten in 2006, 47 million. The point is, you can't compare this year with TFA. This year all the circumstances are different. Different holidays, different day for CD and BD and so on. So will this cross 700 million? IMO, it's about a 95% certainty. Passing Avatar is the target imo. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Lor San Tele said: A sub-3x over the holidays? Good luck with that. This is the time of the year for HOPE. Tele. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, stuart360 said: This is the time of the year for HOPE. Tele. Celebrate the love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 AVATAR is safe imo, and i'm happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, stuart360 said: This is the time of the year for HOPE. Tele. Fool's hope. I do hope it does less than $750m, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 (edited) DOS dropped 65.6% on it's first Monday with a release date a couple days earlier so similarly a lot of people weren't off school/work. It still got over a 3.5x. Edited December 19, 2017 by Reyhawk Fixed date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 hours ago, stuart360 said: AVATAR is safe imo, and i'm happy with that. I wouldn't say its safe. I'd say it's going to be on the precipice of passing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, stuart360 said: This is the time of the year for HOPE. Tele. 2 minutes ago, Elessar said: Fool's hope. I do hope it does less than $750m, though. Hope is not a strategy. Luck is not a factor. Fear is not an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Reyhawk said: DOS dropped 65.6% on it's first Monday with a release date a couple days earlier so similarly a lot of people weren't off school/work. It still got over a 3.5x. DOS didn't make $220m in its opening weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, IronJimbo said: Hope is not a strategy. Luck is not a factor. Fear is not an option. Unfortunately, this is out of my control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said: I wouldn't say its safe. I'd say it's going to be on the precipice of passing it. Its not 100% safe but i think it is. I have already seen predictions of 80-90mil for Christmas weekend for this and thats low imo, especially when IMO this will fall off a cliff after New Year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The last 2 pages are why I made the comments I did earlier.... Lol people have an agenda to push. Oh and @Christmas baumer I got scared when my one projection had Jedi at like 46m on Monday lol. It is possible but Sounds so unlikely. I would much rather think 35 and be surprised. I also think it gets closer to 100m than 80 this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, stuart360 said: AVATAR is safe imo, and i'm happy with that. Last Jedi needs 3.457 multiplier to pass Avatar's domestic gross. Not guaranteed to happen, but there is a pretty good chance of it happening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, stuart360 said: Its not 100% safe but i think it is. I have already seen predictions of 80-90mil for Christmas weekend for this and thats low imo, especially when IMO this will fall off a cliff after New Year. Again your stupidity is showing. Any other weekend set up (Christmas eve not on the weekend) and we wouldn't even be considering such a low number. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 yeah, listen to @Christmas baumer Great post! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, hw64 said: DOS didn't make $220m in its opening weekend. I'm not talking about raw numbers, but %s. Spillover effect is a real thing, but it also is true that a lot of people aren't off quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, hw64 said: DOS didn't make $220m in its opening weekend. Does it matter? TFA made 248m and still ended up with the biggest multiplier of all 100m+ releases. People need to stop assuming that big numbers automatically mean that the behaviour changes drastically compared to other movies that followed a similar schedule or were in a similar situation. While there is always a bit of wiggle room, you can't just ignore general trends connected to specific schedules. The Sunday and Monday drop we have seen from TLJ are right in line with the historic precedents of its schedule. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, narniadis said: Again your stupidity is showing. Any other weekend set up (Christmas eve not on the weekend) and we wouldn't even be considering such a low number. What stupidity?, anyway i'm not even getting into this kind of argument. We will see 2 or 3 months from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
