Tuesday#s TLJ 20.25M

[That One Girl]

Probably cause most schools are in and have exams.

[MovieMan89]

Looks likely to only do around 75m this weekend with Sunday being Xmas eve. That’s half of TFAs second weekend. Next week is going to really have to pull some massive numbers for it if it’s getting to 700+ imo. 

[BK007]

At least wait to see the drops for other movies before running for the hills.

[Lordmandeep]

I think the problem is we think of fanboys as a small % of the audience, 

 

But for SW they are a major percentage of the audience.

 

If they are not coming out to watch this film 2,3,4,5,6,7+ times, that causes issues. 

 

The number is not bad, but the problem is the film is going down a lower trend into the Holidays resulting in smaller number then we expect and all signs point to legs below RO or RO one at best. Which makes sense as RO was a rather well-liked film. 

Edited December 20, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[RandomCat]

Between schools being in, and Christmas being less than a week away, could explain this. Other things that need to be done, other than watching a two and a half hour movie.

[George Parr]

26 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

The average first tuesday's bump for the top 5 2017 openers (except TLJ) is 29.2%.

The average first tuesday bump for last year's top 5 openers is

2.3%.

Just for the sake of comparison with RO. I guess going back to 2015 there will be no increase at all.

So all in all, this doesn't feel good to me.

True, there is more of an increase this year, though to be fair, 2016 got dragged down by BvS in that regard.

 

But that's just a general view. This is the holiday period, we don't really know whether big openers act the same during that time, we have way too few examples to judge that. When it comes to the Tuesday increases, you can't forget that the Monday drops for those movies were far bigger as well. It had the best drop, with 68%, the other three dropped between 72-75%. TLJ now dropped just 58% on Monday. That makes quite the difference.

 

Just as an example, lets assume that TLJ had dropped 70% on Monday as well, that would have put it at 15.3m or so. A 20m Tuesday would be around a 33% jump for that. So one reason why Tuesday isn't increasing the way it normally does, might be that Monday is simply bigger than it normally would be for such an opener.

[MovieMan89]

If it’s at 16-17m on Thursday, Pursuit of Happyness weekend holds put it at 75m. Really nothing else to compare it to given the calendar this year.

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, George Parr said:

True, there is more of an increase this year, though to be fair, 2016 got dragged down by BvS in that regard.

 

But that's just a general view. This is the holiday period, we don't really know whether big openers act the same during that time, we have way too few examples to judge that. When it comes to the Tuesday increases, you can't forget that the Monday drops for those movies were far bigger as well. It had the best drop, with 68%, the other three dropped between 72-75%. TLJ now dropped just 58% on Monday. That makes quite the difference.

 

Just as an example, lets assume that TLJ had dropped 70% on Monday as well, that would have put it at 15.3m or so. A 20m Tuesday would be around a 33% jump for that. So one reason why Tuesday isn't increasing the way it normally does, might be that Monday is simply bigger than it normally would be for such an opener.

 

 

The thing this is heading for a 2nd weekend 33%-40 below TFA while Opening weekend was off by 11%. X-mas and Boxing day pick up some slack but it really shows sign of worse legs already.  

[RandomCat]

I think the point is true, we don't know how this will go. And it may not go the way we think. We don't have the historical precedent yet..

[vc2002]

Crumbling...

[MovieMan89]

We know it will drop around 50% on Sunday. Saturday bumps were extremely small for everything in 2006 as well. So it’s going to need to really have an impressive Friday jump if it’s going above 80m this weekend 

[AndyK]

Maybe its nothing to do with WOM, maybe its just natural.

 

TFA was huge because of its nostalgia factor and everybody that was exited to see TLJ rushed out and saw it OW.

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, Christmas baumer said:

It's going to drop today by about 12-17% and then it should bump up by about 10% on Thursday but the Tuesday number might indicate that the wom on this isn't going to be as strong as other sW films before it,  Or am I just reading too much into it?

 

Maybe just a lot of spillover from the huge weekend into Monday. 

[Noodlebug]

Looks like the WOM is definitely starting to hit it now.

[George Parr]

8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

The thing this is heading for a 2nd weekend 33%-40 below TFA while Opening weekend was off by 11%. X-mas and Boxing day pick up some slack but it really shows sign of worse legs already.  

That's just not a good comparison though, as the movies run on completely different schedules. TFA already had holiday-days in its first week, and a second weekend that was enhanced by christmas day, instead of being hurt by christmas eve.

 

TFA exceeded expectations of what its schedule could deliver, while TLJ is at best matching them, but that doesn't change the fact that they were bound to behave completely differently regardless of whether they exceeded expectations or not. The schedule was this year always suggested that the second set of weekdays would be better than the first, and that there would be a huge second weekend drop, with the third weekend haveing a good chance of even increasing a bit (generally speaking for the schedule). That's just completely different from what TFA got, which had a rather steady progression throughout the holidays.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, AndyK said:

Maybe its nothing to do with WOM, maybe its just natural.

 

TFA was huge because of its nostalgia factor and everybody that was exited to see TLJ rushed out and saw it OW.

 

 

If that were the case I’d have to think TLJ would have come closer to rivaling TFAs ow. Especially since adjusted that’s like 260+

[Ohana]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

I honestly think the WoM isn't that great.

It isn't just some "trolls" who genuinely dislike the movie.

 

And on that note

[baumer]

52 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Pretty much stayed flat on Tuesday like TFA and RO.

 

I'm not seeing a problem.

 

It is far from Flat. There's a difference between what Rogue one did and what the Last Jedi did.

[a2k]

considering more schools are open compared to last couple of years, wasn't expecting a 6% drop with disc Tuesdays getting heftier by the week. am very much surprised.

 

worth keeping in mind that even if FSS is as "low" as 75m, Mon and Tue combined could be close to 65. In 2006 movies showed 140%+ bump on Monday from Sunday and stayed flat on Tuesday. 

 

Can imagine a 75m 2nd weekend and Mon-Tue as:

29 + 31 (+7%) + 15 (-51.6%) + 33.5 (+123%) + 31.5 (-6%) = 75 FSS + 65 MT = 140 5-day

 

(Btw, 75m would be a 2nd weekend drop of 66% vs 59 for RO ; but this time Sunday falls should be 50%+, Sat night will slow down and RO was a non-sequel even if a spin-off. So for a sequel that opened 220 and had Christmas on Sunday, 66% is not a big deal looking at days that preceded it and will follow it. If it does behave this way though, won't say 700 is a 'lock'.)

[titanic2187]

backlash for TLJ was so intense among fans, and they are more passionate to hate it and spread the bad buzz than those general public that spread the good buzz....

 

why the backlash was so harsh? because rian just simply forget or underestimate how people actually like TFA despite being too similar to New hope...it's a movie that move nearly 100m of people into cinema, and gave such a phenomenal nostalgic buzz for public, for sure they will remember clearer for what was happening in TFA...