JohnnyGossamer Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Disney is shrewd. If this somehow doesn't gross $700M, they will surround Johnson with a lot of suits and Disney's own creative team to guide him more than they initially planned to I bet. I still see it grossing $725M+... So, I don't think that'll be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 22 minutes ago, a2knet said: JUMANJI Aud score opened on RT 85% liked it Average Rating: 4.3/5 User Ratings: 16,256 I do think I'm gonna have to eat all my "early" thoughts on this movie...guess 1st trailer reactions aren't always best reactions:)...IF a movie will surprise over the next 2 weeks, I think this one now might be it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermia Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said: I agree that the movie is divisive, but the first two numbers are junk science. Someone just forwarded to me a petition to remove TLJ from canon.....people are being ridiculous, and he is 21 i can't see how his childhood got destroyed by the movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, AndyK said: How are the numbers counted for next weekend. Do we still get a Fri/Sat/Sun number or is Mon/Tue included? We will get traditional 3 day and a 4 day report counting Monday's holiday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, AndyK said: How are the numbers counted for next weekend. Do we still get a Fri/Sat/Sun number or is Mon/Tue included? We'll get a regular 3-day chart and a 4-day chart at Box Office Mojo. Here they are in 2006... 3-day: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2006&wknd=51&p=.htm 4-day: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2006&wknd=51a&p=.htm Edited December 20, 2017 by redfirebird2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said: That is true. But right now, the actual measurable scientific data about audience response is really only showing one thing. When I get 10 polls in at the end of the week, I don't make arguments or conclusions based on the outlier, but on the preponderance of evidence. And yet, original polling can be wrong, especially when not done randomly (which the other scores were not) and when not repeated over time (which they have also not been)...just like in elections, people's opinions go up and down and it's not like the candidates themselves change... The one thing the "non-scientific data points" have that the others don't is the capturing of the opinion of the ga over time...and for a franchise movie, that's kinda crucial to move away from the "fan" audience to find the "normal" audience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, TwoMisfits said: And yet, original polling can be wrong, especially when not done randomly (which the other scores were not) and when not repeated over time (which they have also not been)...just like in elections, people's opinions go up and down and it's not like the candidates themselves change... The one thing the "non-scientific data points" have that the others don't is the capturing of the opinion of the ga over time...and for a franchise movie, that's kinda crucial to move away from the "fan" audience to find the "normal" audience... Putting aside the point of the actual polls in the US election were pretty accurate. The one thing with "non-scientific data points" is there is no real way to judge how accurate or representative they are. There is no methodology, there is no weight, there is nothing that even tells if the user who rates the movie has seen the movie. They aren't good at capturing anything reliable, and shouldn't be used as an accurate measure, especially when it's already been proven there was an effort for the system to be rigged in a specific direction. We will never know what the "Normal" audience thinks of this film through the RT Aud %, that's impossible. The only judge is waiting to see how the movie does with it's legs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenterMeOnSam Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said: And yet, original polling can be wrong, especially when not done randomly (which the other scores were not) and when not repeated over time (which they have also not been)...just like in elections, people's opinions go up and down and it's not like the candidates themselves change... The one thing the "non-scientific data points" have that the others don't is the capturing of the opinion of the ga over time...and for a franchise movie, that's kinda crucial to move away from the "fan" audience to find the "normal" audience... Well, actually, no. I do believe CinemaScore has a random selection process and weighs their data accordingly. And while Rotten Tomatoes isn't a poll, the fact that it is a measurable survey of many of the same critics allows for historical relevancy. It is going back to the same pool of folks over and over again to gauge response. You are correct in stating that opinion and sentiment evolves over time and it would be fantastic if CinemaScore would do a second or third round of polling to gauge that number, but alas, they do not. So, in actuality, the result of the box office and where this thing ends up will tell be the best indicator to tell us whether or not sentiment changed. In regards to your second paragraph, they most certainly do not do that. No matter how much junk data you put in over a period of time, you are still working with junk data. It isn't randomly sampled nor is it weighed based on demographic information. It is laden with possibilities of response bias and because it is an opt-in system of measurement it is not a true random sampling of opinion and therefore any inference extrapolated over a period of time is being extrapolated based on bad data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Sand-omJC said: Putting aside the point of the actual polls in the US election were pretty accurate. The one thing with "non-scientific data points" is there is no real way to judge how accurate or representative they are. There is no methodology, there is no weight, there is nothing that even tells if the user who rates the movie has seen the movie. They aren't good at capturing anything reliable, and shouldn't be used as an accurate measure, especially when it's already been proven there was an effort for the system to be rigged in a specific direction. We will never know what the "Normal" audience thinks of this film through the RT Aud %, that's impossible. The only judge is waiting to see how the movie does with it's legs. I actually agree - I think all this stuff, whether the "scientific" ones or the "non-scientific" ones only provide hints to guide predictions on final numbers...none are perfect... Although I guess this is where you have to get serious on what "is" good legs and what "is not"...it's the holidays, so legs are always much higher...so for TLJ, what would imply bad WOM, what would imply mixed WOM, and what would imply good WOM? Is it under $700M is bad? Is it $700-750M is mixed? Is $750M or more good? I mean, if we can quantify that thought, then maybe we won't go in circles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, stuart360 said: I think Stuart has an agenda! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenterMeOnSam Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: I actually agree - I think all this stuff, whether the "scientific" ones or the "non-scientific" ones only provide hints to guide predictions on final numbers...none are perfect... Although I guess this is where you have to get serious on what "is" good legs and what "is not"...it's the holidays, so legs are always much higher...so for TLJ, what would imply bad WOM, what would imply mixed WOM, and what would imply good WOM? Is it under $700M is bad? Is it $700-750M is mixed? Is $750M or more good? I mean, if we can quantify that thought, then maybe we won't go in circles... I agree with this. It'd be nice to set parameters now. Would save us a lot of back and forth in the coming weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 JL- $735K DH2 - $618K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: I actually agree - I think all this stuff, whether the "scientific" ones or the "non-scientific" ones only provide hints to guide predictions on final numbers...none are perfect... I can't speak to the rest, but while scientific polls can provide a guide, non-scientific certainly does not, and never will. One is as perfect as possible given the circumstances, the other is as far from perfect as humanly possible considering the available circumstances. these are not two things on even platform, and should not be treated as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: I actually agree - I think all this stuff, whether the "scientific" ones or the "non-scientific" ones only provide hints to guide predictions on final numbers...none are perfect... Although I guess this is where you have to get serious on what "is" good legs and what "is not"...it's the holidays, so legs are always much higher...so for TLJ, what would imply bad WOM, what would imply mixed WOM, and what would imply good WOM? Is it under $700M is bad? Is it $700-750M is mixed? Is $750M or more good? I mean, if we can quantify that thought, then maybe we won't go in circles... There is no bad. Disney has a movie locked for 680+ due to the enormous opening and holiday boost over the next couple weeks. Disney is laughing all the way to the bank even if we try to nitpick the movie's financial performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Have other films seen an increase or a decrease Monday to Tuesday? As in, did other films get the usual discount Tuesday boost in sales? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Didn't expect it to drop like that. @Christmas baumer what do you think this means for today, Thursday and the weekend ahead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, JohnnyGossamer said: Have other films seen an increase or a decrease Monday to Tuesday? As in, did other films get the usual discount Tuesday boost in sales? Thanks! Daddy's Home was up 16% from Monday to Monday and then jumped 36% on Tuesday. It is clearly benefiting from at least some kind of holiday boost. It lost way over 500 theaters from last Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 (edited) 7 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said: I agree with this. It'd be nice to set parameters now. Would save us a lot of back and forth in the coming weeks. If it were me, I think Star Wars TFA multiplier would be great/amazing - that's 3.77x (and up) I think Rogue One's multiplier to that multiplier would be good/very good - that's 3.43x (since it didn't get the trilogy "must see" love) up to 3.76x I think something between 3.15ishx and that RO multiplier would be mixed (here's my guessing, b/c what's a mark for a franchise that is unlike everything else?) And I think something under 3.15x would be bad WOM (ie - pretty much BvS with the 1.0x holiday bump would be really bad:)... Edited December 20, 2017 by TwoMisfits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Have other films seen an increase or a decrease Monday to Tuesday? As in, did other films get the usual discount Tuesday boost in sales? Thanks! 1 hour ago, a2knet said: Movie Gross % Change Theaters Total Gross Days - (6) The Disaster Artist $546,378 +18% 1,010 $14,020,502 19 - (11) Lady Bird $397,389 +21% 947 $26,694,438 47 JUSTICE LEAGUE : 0.735 (+41%) DADDY'S HOME 2 : 0.618 (+36%) twitter.com/BORReport i don't think other numbers have come since Edited December 20, 2017 by a2knet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
