JonathanLB Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Manchester by the Tree said: I don't think WOM is great. Lot of people I know who have seen it didn't think it was good. It’s funny since I have an anecdote to fight that - I don’t know a single person who didn’t love it. My sales and marketing head and her entire family loves it, my best friend said he will be back 2 more times with MoviePass, another of my closest friends loved it, and several more casual friends including two from high school and my old friends group liked it, with one urging people on FB to go see it or see it again if they’ve already seen it. He even has two kids and he still wants to see it again. I know one guy on FB only, who is not a friend, who hated it. That’s it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said: So harsh? With three SW movies in three years, TLJ was expected to fall from TFA. It is doing pretty, pretty good for a non-event movie (not to mention #1 for the year), and we will see if JJ's return does any better for Episode IX. You think it will pas BatB by the end of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Krissykins said: We’re not comparing their first weeks due to the calendar. Again, that’s why we wouldn’t be expecting a 6% drop. That's the thing though, without knowing what the other movies did, and without having Wednesday numbers, it is completely unclear what this means. It could be a sign of a certain lack of interest, or it could be a sign that things just work differently during the holiday-season, or it means something entirely different. One thing that seems to be in effect, is that with some level of holidays already going on, Monday is bigger than it would be in a non-holiday situation. With the Monday drop depending on much many people are off already. See the different drops for TFA, Rogue One and TLJ under different schedules. This effect basically hides any Tuesday increases that would normally happen. Instead of a 70% drop on Monday with a 30% rise on Tuesday (like BatB, GotG2, It and Thor all had this year), you get to a 58% drop on Monday, which eats up the increase that would normally happen on Tuesday. If you apply the -70 +30 values to TLJ, you would end up with a 15m Monday and a 20m Tuesday, and that's right where Tuesday is supposed to land. That theory doesn't explain the behaviour compared to TFA and Rogue One though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said: Curious how this relates to everything else. No # exists in a vacuum. If every movie has a drop or low increase compared to what it should, it would put this # in a different light. The reverse is also true. Certainly not a boring run, I'll give it that. Yep. I think the number is just fine. There was some holiday boost on Monday if you look at holdovers. The real fireworks begin next Monday and it will be fun to watch. I still think next Monday/Tuesday could go over $70m combined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, redfirebird2008 said: Yep. I think the number is just fine. There was some holiday boost on Monday if you look at holdovers. The real fireworks begin next Monday and it will be fun to watch. I still think next Monday/Tuesday could go over $70m combined. We're in for a rollercoaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithF1138 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Holiday effect has not kicked in yet. In reality schools are in finals week. We were going to go see TLJ again last night. We didnt because my HS son had to study for finals today. He has finals today, tomorrow and Friday morning. That is the case all over. Because of Christmas falling next week schools are out later. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, KeithF1138 said: Holiday effect has not kicked in yet. In reality schools are in finals week. We were going to go see TLJ again last night. We didnt because my HS son had to study for finals today. He has finals today, tomorrow and Friday morning. That is the case all over. Because of Christmas falling next week schools are out later. The holiday effect started, but it is not in full force yet. Look at the weekly holds of the older movies yesterday. There is clearly at least some holiday boost already going on. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2017-12-18&p=.htm I think Last Jedi would have dropped closer to 70% instead of 58% if there was zero holiday effect. That would be a $15m Monday and then a $20m Tuesday looks very normal with the discount price effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yeha, I'll reserve my judgement about legs and WOM until holidays. if the situation doesn't improve than we can blame it on mixed WOM. But right now, there are other factors working against it (schools still on, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 (edited) Movietickets.com numbers kinda predicted this kind of number - TLJ fell quickly as a % against holdovers Coco and Ferdinand. I expected those to have amazing Tuesday numbers, but maybe instead, it was TLJ not having a "great for its run" number... It's not looking better yet to start today, but we have openers actually opening, but I would watch how it moves against those 2 holdovers to see where it might go today... On that note, by Friday, one of my locals is actually reducing showings of TLJ vs its Monday total...and the other is keeping the Monday total the same (and these are 1/3 less than last weekend). All of these new movies are gonna affect the box office b/c there are so many to take a piece of all the different TLJ angles... And anecdotally, other than this board, I don't know anyone who loved TLJ yet...my best friend didn't even watch it and sent her spouse and teen - both said she would have been bored and the movie was okay. My mom went with my brother and his kids - all echoed that sentiment (I mean, no outright hate, either, although my mom was close)...TFA wasn't like that (I think I was the only "it's okay" while everyone else I knew gushed...) Edited December 20, 2017 by TwoMisfits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 26 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said: This is the first time ever, I am not that interested in the next SW movie. Thank you Rian Johnson To each his own I guess. After what happens in TLJ I’m quite excited to see what J.J. brings us in EP9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 49 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Looking at the 2006 Wednesday, seems like it could stay flat or increase. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2006-12-20&p=.htm Discount Tuesday was not a thing in 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 32 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said: So harsh? With three SW movies in three years, TLJ was expected to fall from TFA. It is doing pretty, pretty good for a non-event movie (not to mention #1 for the year), and we will see if JJ's return does any better for Episode IX. TLH wasn't an event movie??? And, i am sick of hearing people keep saying that TLJ was "supposed" to fall from TFA, yes, it's totally expected, but no one here in BOT seems to forget that.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Yeha, I'll reserve my judgement about legs and WOM until holidays. if the situation doesn't improve than we can blame it on mixed WOM. But right now, there are other factors working against it (schools still on, etc). The numbers are actually very good and they are slightly boosted by an early holiday effect. Normally with zero holiday effect it would have dropped closer to 70% on Monday instead of 58%. I think this hurts the Discount Tuesday increase that we would normally see with a true "non-holiday" week. Next week is when the real fireworks start because it's not just a small holiday effect, it's a huge effect. I am curious to see just how high the Monday-Tuesday total will be. Could go as high as $80m. I think it will reach at least $70m for those two days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 BOT gotta BOT. Considering an increase was my unexpected expectation things are fine. It will drop about 10% today with the new openers and then increase tomorrow before Friday and even more new films open. Btw, if the film makes 75m this weekend there's a high probability it makes close to 100m in weekend 3. Nature of the calendar. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 30 minutes ago, AndyK said: You think it will pas BatB by the end of the year? The way I see it (and that seems to be the consensus according to BOM for example), you have to include 2018 for the total of a movie released in 2017 so TLJ will easily be #1 for this year. As for your question: no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 14 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: Discount Tuesday was not a thing in 2006 I’m aware of that. Monday wasn’t normal though. It dropped only 58%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthPynchon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 A bunch of folks like me are waiting for next weekend to go see it. It’s going to be huge. Mixed WOM? Typical BOT. This was easily the best Star Wars movie. Only ‘fans’ disliked it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Ohana said: And on that note I guess that should stop the conspiracy theories for now, unless the Forbes dude is also a bot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said: Telling you guys, WOM on this thing is far from universal praise among the ga like with TFA. Sticking with my 3.1-3.15x. How did you assess WOM? Doesn't exit polling put TLJ on the same level as TFA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, DarthPynchon said: A bunch of folks like me are waiting for next weekend to go see it. It’s going to be huge. Mixed WOM? Typical BOT. This was easily the best Star Wars movie. Only ‘fans’ disliked it. $800m incontrovertibly confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
