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baumer

Tuesday#s TLJ 20.25M

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10 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

People aren't off yet, so cheap prices or not, the matinee showings won't sell regardless.  Evening showings on Tuesday are where you'd see people go for cheaper but prices, but evening shows were already booked on Monday so it's a mini-effect of what happened with TFA and RO.

 

I also heard AMC wasn't doing discount Tuesday for the holidays?  Not 100% on that one, but that also explains if true.  If it is we should see muted Tuesday bumps for other movies as well.

Not quite - AMC HAD discount Tuesday yesterday.  They will likely NOT have them on Dec 26 and Jan 2 (I mean, they can change their minds at any point, but the original end date for the new $5 Tuesdays was Dec 19)...

 

https://www.amctheatres.com/ticket-tuesday

"$5 Tuesday tickets are available for AMC Stubs members only at participating AMC, AMC DINE-IN and AMC CLASSIC locations for a limited time only. Valid 12/19/2017. Offer is available at box office and AMC Stubs membership must be presented at time of purchase to be eligible for discount."

 

"AMC Theatres $5 Ticket Tuesdays. ... Tuesdays. Extended through Dec. 19, tickets are just $5 every Tuesday for AMC Stubs members. Only at the box office."

Edited by TwoMisfits
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1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Some people are off. 30% or more of the schools were off on Monday. That's a lot more than 0%. Daddy's Home was actually up 16.6% this Monday from last Monday. It jumped around 36% yesterday, despite the very strong Monday performance.

 

Star Wars Monday was very strong at only 58% drop from Sunday. This was due to a decent amount of kids being out of school already and probably a good spillover effect after huge $220m weekend. The Tuesday number seems fine to me when you look at the big picture.

Yeah I wasn't meaning no schools are off, but it's nowhere near the 78% for TFA (as Christmas was Friday).

 

Thats going to make TFA and RO bad daily comparisons (especially TFA) to TLJ until Post Holidays.

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Just now, The Last Panda said:

Yeah I wasn't meaning no schools are off, but it's nowhere near the 78% for TFA (as Christmas was Friday).

 

Thats going to make TFA and RO bad daily comparisons (especially TFA) to TLJ until Post Holidays.

 

TFA is definitely a bad comparison. Rogue One is not a bad comparison, especially when you look at RO's boost in the second week.

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19 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

I think some of you guys are being really unfair. I asked a legitimate question and I am not in panic mode or trying to cause controversy. This film fell 6% on a discount Tuesday when Rogue one stayed flat. So was a totally legitimate question to ask why it fell. There's no sensationalism here there's no Panic there's no me trying to push some kind of an agenda. It's just a totally legitimate question because it should not have fallen on a day where prices are cheaper.

Isn't a 6 percent drop virtually staying flat?

 

I mean there are plenty of variables that could account for a 4-6% difference outside of "poor WOM".

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For TLJ:

 

- The RT audience score dropped to 55% from 56% yesterday

- The IMDB score dropped to 7.8 from 7.9 yesterday

- The BO.com Twitter pos/neg ratio dropped to 3:1 from 5:1 yesterday (it kept dropping since OD, when it was 12:1 I think)

 

Call it what you want, but the movie is at least divisive. 

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3 minutes ago, James said:

For TLJ:

 

- The RT audience score dropped to 55% from 56% yesterday

- The IMDB score dropped to 7.8 from 7.9 yesterday

- The BO.com Twitter pos/neg ratio dropped to 3:1 from 5:1 yesterday (it kept dropping since OD, when it was 12:1 I think)

 

Call it what you want, but the movie is at least divisive. 

I agree that the movie is divisive, but the first two numbers are junk science. 

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6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Isn't a 6 percent drop virtually staying flat?

 

I mean there are plenty of variables that could account for a 4-6% difference outside of "poor WOM".

imo staying flat entails that if you change '+' and '-' it doesn't make much of a difference like +/-1% to +/-2%.

 

But with +/-6.16% is swing of 12%+ :

20.3 <-- (-6.16%) 21.55 (+6.16%) -->22.9 vs. say,

21.3 <-- (-1%) 21.55 (+1%) --> 21.8

 

So up/down by 6% imo is not staying flat to me.

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i bet those in disney's marketing or top management are looking these WOM and legs more seriously, and i believe they really do acknowledge the problem in their office, even when the "problem" don't looks big or look fake...

 

That's why they are now empire, there is no way disney will succeed if they keep finding excuses or denying them on little failure like BOT's users.....

 

I bet they won't assume that bot account are responsible for low score, they won't blame for calendar, they will ask themselves first, have they really did something wrong? 

 

That's how they are the king of movie industry now....Don't be foolish to think that disney don't care about all these bad buzz, or little sign of fatigue, they climb to the top for a reason 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

i bet those in disney's marketing or top management are looking these WOM and legs more seriously, and i believe they really do acknowledge the problem in their office, even when the "problem" don't looks big or look fake...

 

That's why they are now empire, there is no way disney will succeed if they keep finding excuses or denying them on little failure like BOT's users.....

 

I bet they won't assume that bot account are responsible for low score, they won't blame for calendar, they will ask themselves first, have they really did something wrong? 

 

That's how they are the king of movie industry now....Don't be foolish to think that disney don't care about all these bad buzz, or little sign of fatigue, they climb to the top for a reason 

 

 

 

Honest question...

 

If at the end of the run TLJ makes between 750-800 domestic and has a 93% RT score, an 86% MetaCritic score, and a CinemaScore of "A" would you look at all of that data and say that there was bad buzz or fatigue in that result?

 

 

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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

i bet those in disney's marketing or top management are looking these WOM and legs more seriously, and i believe they really do acknowledge the problem in their office, even when the "problem" don't looks big or look fake...

 

That's why they are now empire, there is no way disney will succeed if they keep finding excuses or denying them on little failure like BOT's users.....

 

I bet they won't assume that bot account are responsible for low score, they won't blame for calendar, they will ask themselves first, have they really did something wrong? 

 

That's how they are the king of movie industry now....Don't be foolish to think that disney don't care about all these bad buzz, or little sign of fatigue, they climb to the top for a reason 

 

 

I would hope, being the king, they also have the wisdom to not judge a number in a vacuum. They are smart enough to know that calendar has an effect. They were also probably smart enough to know this would be a divisive film.

 

But it's all too early right now to panic, that would be the foolish thing to do.

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1 minute ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

 

Honest question...

 

If at the end of the run TLJ makes between 750-800 domestic and has a 93% RT score, an 86% MetaCritic score, and a CinemaScore of "A" would you look at all of that data and say that there was bad buzz or fatigue in that result?

 

 

Of course, the reverse can be said...if it ends up sub-$700M DOM with all the other "not-as-scientific, but still potentially valid" scores, would you say there was good buzz and no fatigue?  I mean, til the box office numbers finish up, either person can still be right...

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4 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

I would hope, being the king, they also have the wisdom to not judge a number in a vacuum. They are smart enough to know that calendar has an effect. They were also probably smart enough to know this would be a divisive film.

 

But it's all too early right now to panic, that would be the foolish thing to do.

 

Disney is laughing all the way to the bank.

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Of course, the reverse can be said...if it ends up sub-$700M DOM with all the other "not-as-scientific, but still potentially valid" scores, would you say there was good buzz and no fatigue?  I mean, til the box office numbers finish up, either person can still be right...

 

That is true. But right now, the actual measurable scientific data about audience response is really only showing one thing. 

 

When I get 10 polls in at the end of the week, I don't make arguments or conclusions based on the outlier, but on the preponderance of evidence.

 

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1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Disney is laughing all the way to the bank.

Maybe. I don't know what Disney expected out of this movie, but I think they knew this was going to be a divisive movie, so I doubt they are panicking at it being divisive. 

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