Tuesday#s TLJ 20.25M

[Valonqar]

27 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The numbers are actually very good and they are slightly boosted by an early holiday effect. Normally with zero holiday effect it would have dropped closer to 70% on Monday instead of 58%. I think this hurts the Discount Tuesday increase that we would normally see with a true "non-holiday" week. 

 

Next week is when the real fireworks start because it's not just a small holiday effect, it's a huge effect. I am curious to see just how high the Monday-Tuesday total will be. Could go as high as $80m. I think it will reach at least $70m for those two days. 

This. Moreover, TLJ is skewing more female than TFA on the opening night (10% jump) and female audience tends to give longer legs so we'll see.

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

How did you assess WOM?

 

Doesn't exit polling put TLJ on the same level as TFA?

 

The legs will give a better indication. TDKR had the same reception in exit polling as TDK but the legs told a different story. 

 

I think legs will be similar to Rogue One’s multiplier, which is very good but not in same stratosphere as TFA legs. 

[CenterMeOnSam]

I'm pretty new here, but I just wanted to chime in since my work background is in polling and statistics.

 

I'm just laughing at the idea that a movie with a 93% RT score and a an (A) CinemaScore is somehow having bad word of mouth. It's not. Like most movies plagued by fandom, these issues are occurring within a small percentage of people who post on the internet. In my line of work we encounter the same issues when we see people post about internet opt-in polls or form surveys. We see people use bad data to justify their opinions. Don't do that. Just use the ACTUAL data.

 

If the movie finishes with a bad multiplier, great, that's a data point you can use, but now? It's way too early and the only data points that are actually scientifically viable point to people widely enjoying this film.

 

All statistical, scientific measurements of audience response to this movie show it as being well-received. 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2017/12/20/rotten-tomatoes-confirms-its-55-last-jedi-audience-score-is-100-authentic/#13587ca64231

The simpler, and far more credible explanation is simply that a lot of people don’t like the movie.

Rob Cain cutting conspiracy theorems to pieces with Occam's Razor.

 

To be honest I wasn't going to bring up the online reaction stuff any more because we're just going in circles.

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

ouch, i guess that what happens when you piss-off die hard fans that normally see films 5-10 times

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

I'm pretty new here, but I just wanted to chime in since my work background is in polling and statistics.

 

I'm just laughing at the idea that a movie with a 93% RT score and a an (A) CinemaScore is somehow having bad word of mouth. It's not. Like most movies plagued by fandom, these issues are occurring within a small percentage of people who post on the internet. In my line of work we encounter the same issues when we see people post about internet opt-in polls or form surveys. We see people use bad data to justify their opinions. Don't do that. Just use the ACTUAL data.

 

If the movie finishes with a bad multiplier, great, that's a data point you can use, but now? It's way too early and the only data points that are actually scientifically viable point to people widely enjoying this film.

 

All statistical, scientific measurements of audience response to this movie show it as being well-received.

Well I mean it is actual data, it's just of internet users who use movie voting website.

Edited December 20, 2017 by IronJimbo

[a2k]

34 minutes ago, narniadis said:

BOT gotta BOT. Considering an increase was my unexpected expectation things are fine. It will drop about 10% today with the new openers and then increase tomorrow before Friday and even more new films open. 

 

Btw, if the film makes 75m this weekend there's a high probability it makes close to 100m in weekend 3. Nature of the calendar. 

RO dropped 14.9% on Wed. We don't have that much old data due to Disc Tues, SW's December numbers being abnormally big, and the shifting holiday schedule each year. But I feel Wed drop will be closer to 15% than 10%.

 

It feels like SW8's lagging this week and over the weekend in holds, but next week it should outdo holds of RO by a good margin (weekly drop). Eg: their 1st Tuesdays gap vs 2nd Tuesdays gap. RO's 2nd Tue fell 30% while SW8's should be flat.

 

(Needs 2.67x the 5-day to get to 699+. RO and SW7 did 2.8 and 2.88x 5-day respectively. 2.71-2.75x the 5-day gives SW8 710-720 dom which am guessing where it will settle.)

Edited December 20, 2017 by a2knet

[CenterMeOnSam]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Well I mean it is actual data, it's just of internet uses who use movie voting website.

It is not scientifically viable data. We wouldn't use it to try and extrapolate a conclusion. 

[George Parr]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The legs will give a better indication. TDKR had the same reception in exit polling as TDK but the legs told a different story. 

 

I think legs will be similar to Rogue One’s multiplier, which is very good but not in same stratosphere as TFA legs. 

It feels a bit like the Titanic vs TPM comparison. Just like TPM, TLJ suffers from not matching the gargantuan movie that came some time before, which completely overshawdos how freakishly huge it actually is.

 

TLJ should end up with an opening week that is right up there with JW. A second week that will be far ahead of Rogue One, which is currently in second place, and a third week that should at the very least compete for the 2nd spot as well, if not for first if everything goes perfectly.

[The Panda]

It's too early to make a call.  TLJ isn't going to perform like RO and TFA because of calendar differences and hype differences between TFA and TLJ

[MCKillswitch123]

Damn, I didn't expect it to decrease on Tuesday. Ouch.

 

WHAT A BOMB OMG FAIL LOLZ

 

Spoiler

 

[grey ghost]

8 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The legs will give a better indication. TDKR had the same reception in exit polling as TDK but the legs told a different story. 

 

I think legs will be similar to Rogue One’s multiplier, which is very good but not in same stratosphere as TFA legs. 

TPM also had the best legs of the prequel trilogy but I doubt it's because it had the best WOM.

 

Like TFA it was a cultural phenomenon simply for being the first SW in over a decade.

[baumer]

I think some of you guys are being really unfair. I asked a legitimate question and I am not in panic mode or trying to cause controversy. This film fell 6% on a discount Tuesday when Rogue one stayed flat. So was a totally legitimate question to ask why it fell. There's no sensationalism here there's no Panic there's no me trying to push some kind of an agenda. It's just a totally legitimate question because it should not have fallen on a day where prices are cheaper.

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

This is the first time ever, I am not that interested in the next SW movie. 

 

 

Thank you Rian Johnson 

 

Are you still going to watch it when it comes out?

[The Panda]

Nature of the calendar is next week's weekdays (and probably the nexts as well) will be over this weeks.  This weekend will have a slightly higher drop, next will be a near flat drop or increase.

[a2k]

		Movie	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Total Gross	Days
-	(6)	The Disaster Artist	$546,378	+18%	1,010	$14,020,502	19
-	(11)	Lady Bird	$397,389	+21%	947	$26,694,438	47

 

 

JUSTICE LEAGUE : 0.735 (+41%)

DADDY'S HOME 2 : 0.618 (+36%)

twitter.com/BORReport

[redfirebird2008]

16 minutes ago, CenterMeOnSam said:

I'm pretty new here, but I just wanted to chime in since my work background is in polling and statistics.

 

I'm just laughing at the idea that a movie with a 93% RT score and a an (A) CinemaScore is somehow having bad word of mouth. It's not. Like most movies plagued by fandom, these issues are occurring within a small percentage of people who post on the internet. In my line of work we encounter the same issues when we see people post about internet opt-in polls or form surveys. We see people use bad data to justify their opinions. Don't do that. Just use the ACTUAL data.

 

If the movie finishes with a bad multiplier, great, that's a data point you can use, but now? It's way too early and the only data points that are actually scientifically viable point to people widely enjoying this film.

 

All statistical, scientific measurements of audience response to this movie show it as being well-received. 

 

 

 

It's not going to finish with a "bad" multiplier. That's physically impossible due to the holiday boost it will be receiving over the next couple weeks. The question is whether the multiplier will be good (Rogue One) or amazing (Force Awakens). I tend to think it will be the first one, but we will see how it goes.

[The Panda]

6 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

I think some of you guys are being really unfair. I asked a legitimate question and I am not in panic mode or trying to cause controversy. This film fell 6% on a discount Tuesday when Rogue one stayed flat. So was a totally legitimate question to ask why it fell. There's no sensationalism here there's no Panic there's no me trying to push some kind of an agenda. It's just a totally legitimate question because it should not have fallen on a day where prices are cheaper.

People aren't off yet, so cheap prices or not, the matinee showings won't sell regardless.  Evening showings on Tuesday are where you'd see people go for cheaper but prices, but evening shows were already booked on Monday so it's a mini-effect of what happened with TFA and RO.

 

I also heard AMC wasn't doing discount Tuesday for the holidays?  Not 100% on that one, but that also explains if true.  If it is we should see muted Tuesday bumps for other movies as well.

[Rumpot]

5 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

People aren't off yet, so cheap prices or not, the matinee showings won't sell regardless.  Evening showings on Tuesday are where you'd see people go for cheaper but prices, but evening shows were already booked on Monday so it's a mini-effect of what happened with TFA and RO.

 

I also heard AMC wasn't doing discount Tuesday for the holidays?  Not 100% on that one, but that also explains if true.  If it is we should see muted Tuesday bumps for other movies as well.

AMC extended $5 Tuesdays through yesterday so it was definitely active yesterday.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

People aren't off yet, so cheap prices or not, the matinee showings won't sell regardless.  Evening showings on Tuesday are where you'd see people go for cheaper but prices, but evening shows were already booked on Monday so it's a mini-effect of what happened with TFA and RO.

 

I also heard AMC wasn't doing discount Tuesday for the holidays?  Not 100% on that one, but that also explains if true.  If it is we should see muted Tuesday bumps for other movies as well.

 

Some people are off. 30% or more of the schools were off on Monday. That's a lot more than 0%. Daddy's Home was actually up 16.6% this Monday from last Monday. It jumped around 36% yesterday, despite the very strong Monday performance.

 

Star Wars Monday was very strong at only 58% drop from Sunday. This was due to a decent amount of kids being out of school already and probably a good spillover effect after huge $220m weekend. The Tuesday number seems fine to me when you look at the big picture.