Thursday #s: TLJ 17.8M, Jumanji 7.55M, TGS 2.1M

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

17.8 is a 5.3% bump from 16.9 Thu.

Needs 40.5% Fri jump for 25 - the minimum imo to keep 70+ FSS alive.

 

With 25M Friday, it won't reach 70M. Saturday bumps will be less than 5% or movies will stay flat and Sunday drops will be 50% or more. Giving a 10% Saturday bump would see 25, 27.5, 14 for a 62M 3 day. The huge Sunday drops which will happen means at least 28M or so will be needed for 70M.

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

With 25M Friday, it won't reach 70M. Saturday bumps will be less than 5% or movies will stay flat and Sunday drops will be 50% or more. Giving a 10% Saturday bump would see 25, 27.5, 14 for a 62M 3 day. The huge Sunday drops which will happen means at least 28M or so will be needed for 70M.

Internal multipliers for most 2006 films were around 2.8  $25m would hit $70m with that.

[MrGlass2]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Whoever greenlit Bright isn't very bright!

But all that matters is that enough Netflix suscribers watch it and they will be happy with this decision, and we will never know if that is the case. Just like every Netflix show is a "hit".

[AndyLL]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What you describe probably helps, but at the same time there are also theaters that will be closed very early on Christmas Eve. So even if people would like to go to the movies later that evening, they might not be able to due to the theaters being closed.

 

I think best case scenario would be a drop around 40%. Rogue One and TFA did out-perform other movies on Christmas Eve the last two years, so we'll see if this trend continues. Of course "out-performing" could mean around 48% drop if everything else is dropping 55-60%.

Just checked the theater I go to.  They did drop the > 10:00pm IMAX but keep the late AMC Dolby show which has only sold about 10 tickets.  The 7:00 show is 95% sold out however.

 

Christmas Eve being on a Sunday hopefully will mute the drop a little since Sunday nights are slow to begin with.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, The Last AndyLL said:

 

Christmas Eve being on a Sunday hopefully will mute the drop a little since Sunday nights are slow to begin with.

 

It did not seem to help in 2006. Your Amazon theory would have to boost the matinee shows a lot compared to 2006 and it's possible that will be the case. Should be interesting either way.

[seduh]

TLJ clearly has not good WOM at all, it's headed for a 70% drop (huge). 

[AndyChrono]

3 minutes ago, The Last AndyLL said:

Christmas Eve being on a Sunday hopefully will mute the drop a little since Sunday nights are slow to begin with.

That means it drops more.... You have the usual Saturday to Sunday drop (say 20-25%), and then add on the Christmas Eve drop of some X%. That's why you get those 50-60%+ drops like in 2006.

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, seduh said:

TLJ clearly has not good WOM at all, it's headed for a 70% drop (huge). 

 

I assume this is sarcasm.

 

If not, buy yourself a calendar.

[harry713]

7 minutes ago, seduh said:

TLJ clearly has not good WOM at all, it's headed for a 70% drop (huge). 

[Valonqar]

56 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Agreed. That 3,77 multiplier of TFA is still goddamn unbelievable. A once-in a lifetime performance.

 

Besides that, Empires first run adjusts to 702M per BOM. So TLJ is in good company and still has a very good chance to gross a lot more than that. Furthermore, the 2nd parts of SW Trilogys are the lowest-grossing anyways, so a huge decline in raw numbers should have been expected anyway.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

I still want it to top Avatar though

 

This.

 

In short, TLJ is doing what every second SW movie has done - declining in numbers from maxed out first movie. Ep IX will make between TFA and TLJ just like ROTJ and ROTS made between ANH/ESB and TPM/AOTC. If naything, the franchise is working like a clock boxoffice-wise. No surprises though I expect meltdowns when IX increases over TLJ but not enough to catch up with TFA (which is totally expected given the boxoffice pattern).  

[Lordmandeep]

WOM is great or not it has gone from 142% of RO to 105%.

 

Should go up next week hopefully or else, there is trouble lol 

[Rebeccas]

Rogue One’s holiday school schedule is the same as this year’s at least where I live so is there any other reason for this disparity? I didn’t think Rogue One was UNIVERSALLY adored either?

[The Panda]

22 minutes ago, seduh said:

TLJ clearly has not good WOM at all, it's headed for a 70% drop (huge). 

 

With Christmas Eve as the Sunday, no Christmas Day to pad it, and massive previews that won't be added this weekend.  Plus it'll be under 70%.

 

Try again.

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, Rebeccas said:

Rogue One’s holiday school schedule is the same as this year’s at least where I live so is there any other reason for this disparity? I didn’t think Rogue One was UNIVERSALLY adored either?

1

 

 

The ending of the film made the star wars fan base wet themselves. 

 

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Rogue One’s holiday school schedule is the same as this year’s at least where I live so is there any other reason for this disparity? I didn’t think Rogue One was UNIVERSALLY adored either?

It's not the same as last year's.  More schools were out during Rogue One's first week.  Rogue One also had Christmas during the weekend.

[AndyLL]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

Rogue One’s holiday school schedule is the same as this year’s at least where I live so is there any other reason for this disparity? I didn’t think Rogue One was UNIVERSALLY adored either?

It's not the same.  It's been posted here several times that 2-3 times as many schools are in session this year as opposed to last year.

[75Live]

4 minutes ago, The Last AndyLL said:

It's not the same.  It's been posted here several times that 2-3 times as many schools are in session this year as opposed to last year.

 

yeah but that doesn't matter since her school isn't in session so that cancels all the other info out  

 

but seriously, like you said the school schedule for TLJ and RO overall is not the same.

 

Not saying that TLJ may just have bad drops for the entire run, but still too early to say anything really about the movie 

Edited December 22, 2017 by 75Live

[baumer]

3 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

With 25M Friday, it won't reach 70M. Saturday bumps will be less than 5% or movies will stay flat and Sunday drops will be 50% or more. Giving a 10% Saturday bump would see 25, 27.5, 14 for a 62M 3 day. The huge Sunday drops which will happen means at least 28M or so will be needed for 70M.

 

What model are you using to ascertain that it will jump less than 5%?  That doesn't seem overly logical imo.  Also, if you are using that model, then you have to say it will jump by about 140% on Monday.  It's going to have a soft weekend because of Christmas Eve but next week will be a big week and then a good weekend as well.

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, The Last AndyLL said:

It's not the same.  It's been posted here several times that 2-3 times as many schools are in session this year as opposed to last year.

It's the closet we have to compare TLJ with R1, instead of having the data from 11 years ago with those films that had much much lower gross

[grey ghost]

8 minutes ago, The Last AndyLL said:

It's not the same.  It's been posted here several times that 2-3 times as many schools are in session this year as opposed to last year.

The Flop Jedi