4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, Valonqar said:

I think that 700M has always been on track. People just jumped to negative conclusions cause the movie wasn't in the real holiday stretch of its run but in shopping-schools-work one. from this weekend onward, thing will look much better.

True range is 700-740 right now 

 

It should be running around 20-40% of RO and based on the range it lands on it will determine the final gross.

[Poseidon]

$28,3m for Star Wars: "I TOLD YOU"
$25,5m for Star Wars: "I TOLD YOU"
 

 

$27,1m for Star Wars: Incesure hesitation 

 

 

Love it. Merry Christmas, May this be a lesson for all the extremes. 

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Sony is back.

 

$200m guaranteed for Jumanji.

 

 

Watch Jumanji 2 tank in Summer 2019. 

it's all ninja turtle over again.....

the 1st one surprised us while the 2nd one tanked and disappear 

[Giesi]

So when it‘s all said and done, the sequel trilogy could average $800M

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

it's all ninja turtle over again.....

the 1st one surprised us while the 2nd one tanked and disappear 

But Ninja Turtles 1 was garbage, the GA and the critics like this movie at least.

[redfirebird2008]

8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

True range is 700-740 right now 

 

It should be running around 20-40% of RO and based on the range it lands on it will determine the final gross.

 

If 27 holds, Friday was about 18.5% above Rogue One. 

 

[LinksterAC]

15 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

True range is 700-740 right now 

 

It should be running around 20-40% of RO and based on the range it lands on it will determine the final gross.

It’s still too early to tell for me.  I haven’t seen a convincing argument one way or another how it will perform relative to RO going forward, but if the latest 27.1 number holds I think it’s a sign that the difference in holiday schedules had a big impact on the comparison. 

 

Not only would TLJ have a better second week than RO, it would also mean a much stronger third week (because it would act more like a holiday week than it did for RO).

 

After OW, my O/U for TLJ was 750, using RO’s multiplier.  Personally, I’m not seeing enough yet to change that prediction one way or another.  

Edited December 23, 2017 by LinksterAC

[TwoMisfits]

As for one reason why Deadline is keeping a high weekend mulitplier...

 

If you've been watching your theaters this week (at least in non-guaranteed all sellout areas) and seeing how each number has worked, Star Wars is not uber-strong in the 10pm (and especially later) shows.  It sells out none of them, and some are literally only 1/4-1/3 full (and less if 3d).  That's a big reason we'll get a number and then it adjusts slightly down every time.

 

So, losing the 10pm set On Xmas Eve is gonna not make as huge a difference for the movie as you'd think it would...still should lower the number, but maybe not as drastically as some of those other Xmas Eve drops (although probably not as good as Deadline thinks)...

 

Now if locals are closing earlier, that will matter more...my area (at all theaters, not just the ones I track) is sticking to main schedule or just tossing the 10pm or later block...

 

EDIT: Now, losing the 10am block would be harsh, b/c those are always all sold out if your area is out of school (like mine:)...

Edited December 23, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

If you've been watching your theaters this week (at least in non-guaranteed all sellout areas) and seeing how each number has worked, Star Wars is not uber-strong in the 10pm (and especially later) shows.  It sells out none of them, and some are literally only 1/4-1/3 full (and less if 3d).  That's a big reason we'll get a number and then it adjusts slightly down every time.

Every 2D show at my theater yesterday was a sellout or near sellout though  

[Wrath]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

The premise always seemed weird and a tough sell, and the reviews didn't help one bit either. Just goes to show if you're an adult-targeted film opening at a time of year when a bunch of Oscar contenders are opening and don't have much to offer, you're screwed.

Reminds me of Suburbicon. I like Damon generally, but they do have him in common.

[WrathOfHan]

Saying Downsizing had a hard-sell of a premise is reaaaaaally stretching it   

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Saying Downsizing had a hard-sell of a premise is reaaaaaally stretching it   

It always looked too silly yet too serious at the same time. Total tonal confusion from a marketing standpoint. It needed good reviews to survive the onslaught either way, and it didn't have those so these are the results.

[Ethan Hunt]

46 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

have you ever tried to pick your favorite child Ethan.

 

That’s how ranking Verbinski films feels like

It's Rango. Other choices are wrong

[a2k]

24.68

 

 

 

[filmlover]

Just now, a2knet said:

24.68

 

 

 

Cue the meltdowns even though this is a good number. 

[YM!]

 

[a2k]

edit: dupe

 

Rth, like one would expect, was close(r) on the both the numbers.

 

24.68

27.15 (+10%)

13.57 (-50%)

= 65.4 (RO is 64.0)

 

Edited December 23, 2017 by a2knet

[Poseidon]

Seems like Deadline underestimated the effect of schools being off there and failed on predicting the evening business off a very strong afternoon.

 

The competition is tough out there.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

 

 

It looked like everything go down from initial estimate or revised estimate ...

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Coco:

 

1.9M

2.1M (+10%)

1M (-52%)

5M Weekend